Capitalizing on the many benefits of low birth rates: Why we need a “Low populations for the environment” movement and a “High quality human resource” movement

 

Introduction

There is an untroubled harmony in everything, a full consonance in nature; only in our illusory freedom do we feel at variance with it. - Fyodor Tyutchev

We begin this paper by reviewing the history of population studies, and many different concepts allied and aligned with the field of population studies such as total fertility rate, population momentum, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, pronatalism, antinatalism, the theory of demographic dividend, demographic window, demographic winter, etc, and investigate the causes of population growth.  We also review the history of human population growth since early time immemorial, particularly since the time of the Neolithic revolution when early reliable estimates are available, and investigate population growth rates, and trends in population growth in different parts of the world, to lend credence to the theory of a demographically divided world. We also explain why we need a “Low population for the environment” or a “LOPE” movement, (The term lope means an easily maintainable gait in the English language) and the benefits of low populations are indeed many. This is done by reviewing the drawbacks and limitations of the theory of demographic dividend, and the dangers of pronatalism that is an unfortunate new trend associated with the far right. We also integrate this paper therefore duly and suitably with our earlier concepts such as aeterntism, omnimodism, integrationism, and epistemic cohernetism, to explain and show which tradeoffs, prioritization and mutual adjustment are always required. We therefore propose the need to develop “ideal fertility” rates in different parts of the world, integrate it with developmental studies better, and propose terms such as population management as vastly superior concepts to birth control. At the same time, we also need a renewed thrust on pedagogy and education, and a renewed emphasis on high-quality human resources as opposed to quantity alone. Therefore, copy and paste scholarship is extremely dangerous we believe, and the needs and requirements of different societies and cultures must always be taken into account with local considerations duly studied. This is one of the essential prerequisites of our globalization of science movement which must be taken forward to its logical conclusions. In a way, this is essential to the survival of mankind and the human race as well. This is by no means our first work on this issue; all our works are therefore interlinked in a continuous chain.

Population studies

Population studies as it is understood in daily and in common parlance, refers to the scientific study of various aspects of population including population size, population structure, population distribution, and changes to population over time due to changes in birth and death rates, and migrations. Population studies make use of statistical methods and models to analyze and predict population trends, changes to such trends and challenges pertaining to high population growth, or in some cases population decline.  Population studies is an interdisciplinary field that acts as a crucial input into policy making and administration as it throws vital insights and clues into population trends, projections, and population structures to address population-related projects and programs. Population studies must be better integrated with environmental studies, and this kind of integration is presently sorely lacking. From a purely environmental standpoint and perspective, population studies help understand the impact humans have on natural resources, the environment, and human health in a bidirectional and a multidimensional relationship. Understanding these effects can lead to newer and more vital programs and policies that help mitigate the negative impacts people have on the environment, so that they can live in harmony with other beings. This is necessary, but is yet to happen. This is because scholarship is currently western centric, and birth rates in the west are already low. The environmental movement is barely a couple of decades old; it has yet to embrace multiregional perspectives.  We have also taken a dangerously right-wing and pronatalist turn probably because of the anti-left turn of a few decades ago following the political collapse of the communist bloc. We have yet to initiate a much needed course-correction. Pronatalism is effectively and essentially a far right movement; refer the internet for more information. It is necessary to initiate course-corrections before it is too late. The future of humanity hinges and depends on it. Also read our book, “Sound population management ad infinitum: How relatively low fertility rates can lead to an “Evergreen demographic boon”” published in Google Books 2024 [1] [2] [3]

History of population studies

The term demography is believed to have arisen from the Ancient Greek word “demos” meaning “people or society” and “grapho” which means “to write”. Demography refers to the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (for e.g., by ethnicity, age, gender, language, religion, and other dimensions), and how they change over time through the interplay of various factors such fertility (meaning births), mortality (meaning deaths), and inward or outward migrations. Demography is sometimes seen as a field within sociology, though not always, as many concepts are independent in their own right. Thoughts on human population existed in many early civilizations such as Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, China and India. The Han dynasty in Ancient China even maintained population registers, and this practice was carried forward to medieval times. In ancient Greece, for example, writers and thinkers such as Herodotus, Thucydides,  Protagoras, Plato, Hippocrates, Epicurus, Polus, and Aristotle contemplated on population matters as did Cicero, Seneca, Pliny the Elder, Marcus Aurelius, Epictetus, Cato, and Columella later on in Rome. In the Middle Ages in Europe, eminent Christian thinkers revised and rethought many ideas on demography. Notable and eminent thinkers of this era included Bartholomew of Lucca, William of Pagula, William of Conches, William of Auvergne, and Islamic thinkers and writers such as Ibn Khaldun. More recently, Benjamin Franklin, John Graunt, Edmund Halley, Benjamin Gompert, Achille Guillard, Augustus De Morgan and Richard Price also contributed to demographic studies in some way or the other. Thomas Robert Malthus also proved to be an eminent thinker, and some of his doomsday ideas proved to be highly influential in the field of demography and population studies.

In the Nineteenth century, demography morphed into a separate area of interest and distinct field of study away from statistics from which it partially originated. Thinkers from this era included eminent scholars such as William Farr, Louis-Adolphe Bertillon, Richard Bockh, Wilhelm Lexis, Adolphe Quetelet, Joseph Korosi, Anders Nicolas Kaier, and Luigi Bodio.  It is not possible to examine all their theories, contributions and ideas in this book, and the objective of this work is entirely different. We will therefore, briefly only touch upon the main and the crucial ones, and leave it to readers to do their own homework with the rest. Demographic analysis is also carried out by undertaking censuses, as this techniques can provide robust, rock solid and infallible data. A census is a survey that collects detailed or summary information from every person or an entity in a group or population, and this is also known as a complete enumeration. The information gathered may include location, gender, age, characteristics, economic status, and educational attainment.  The word "census" comes from the Latin word “census”, which in turn is derived from the term “censere” meaning "to give as an opinion, assess, appraise, perform the duties of a censor". The first known use of the word "census" occurred in the year 1634. However, of late surveys and sampling surveys are being increasingly conducted, and the results of such surveys are extrapolated onto the entire population.

The world’s population in 10000 BCE was estimated to have been around two million; this increased progressively to around 15 million by 3000 BCE due to the Neolithic revolution and the later emergence of old world civilizations. Some other factors that contributed to the growth of human populations during this period include the domestication of different types of animals, the invention of the wheel, agriculture and storage of grains, the development of new production techniques for metals as a part of the Chalcolithic and Bronze age civilizations, and the invention of writing. However, populations may have been unstable during this period, and may have been ravaged by famine and disease. The world’s population is believed to have further increased to one hundred million at the dawn of the Christian era, though such estimates are notoriously unreliable. While estimates of early population counts are unreliable, early attempts to systematically count population date to the endeavours of William Petty in 1682, and some others. Sometimes, Markov models have also been applied, but these are not fully reliable. Some other estimates put the human population count at 300 million in 1000 AD, and 450 million in 1500 AD. There were periods of constriction or reduction of population such as Great Famine of 1315–1317, Plague of Justinian, and the end of the Black Death in 1350.

No large scale worldwide constriction events may have however occurred since the per-historical Toba catastrophe event of some seventy thousand years ago. There was also a moderate population loss between 200 AD and 400 AD, and the little ice age contributed to population decline between 1300 AD and 1400 AD. Human population growth is attributed to its success as a species, though it may not last for long. Birth rates have been falling over the past two centuries or so, even though death rates have been falling much, much faster. This has naturally led to a population explosion of sorts. A population explosion may be defined as a sudden or a rapid explosion of population, with a large number of unwarranted and unintended negative consequences. The term is widely used today in demographic studies. A population explosion may even be catastrophic, and millions of people may die due to famine or disease. Population explosion or not there is a “General tendency of the population to increase”, and this observation is also one of the foundational pillars of this book. While there may be exceptions, these must be carefully noted in order to draw conclusions there from.

World population milestones in billions (Worldometers estimates)
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1804	1930	1960	1974	1987	1999	2011	2022	2037	2057
200,000+	126	30	14	13	12	12	11	15	20

 

The highest global population growth rates, with average increases of over 2.0% every year, took place between the years 1955 and 1975, peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970. The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century. The Total fertility rates representing the average number of children born per woman, has also declined to 2.3 children per woman in 2024, and may reach replacement rates by the middle of the century. Africa, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa may alone remain a significant outlier to this overall and broad trend. The population may stop growing entirely by the year 2100 after it reaches around ten billion, if proper policies are put in place in different parts of the world. The total number of annually births globally is currently around (for the period between 2015–2020) 140 million per year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040–2045 at around 141 million per year and then decline gradually to 126 million per year by 2100. The total number of deaths is currently around 57 million per year and is projected to grow steadily to around 121 million per year by the year 2100, leading to net zero additions. However, per capita consumption of natural resources may keep on increasing (if not Co2 emissions per capita) and human will continue to threaten the environment, and pose a major threat to biodiversity and other plant and animal species. In the modern age, humans are much better able to take control of their resources and their own destiny like never before in human history. However, the will, the conceptual clarity, and the theoretical foundation must be available. Hence, our various endeaovurs. [4]

Thomas Malthus who lived between the years 1766-1834, was an eminent and respected English economist and demographer who most notably developed the Malthusian theory of population. In addition, he is remembered as a cleric and a noteworthy and a praiseworthy scholar who was also influential in the fields of political economy. His most noteworthy book was published in 1798, and was “An Essay on the Principle of Population”, and the conclusions and consequences of this book was far-reaching, if not somewhat outdated in the contemporary context and grossly and highly misleading as well. According to Malthus’ thesis, an increase in a nation's food production improved the overall well-being and prosperity of the population, but the improvement was temporary because it led to pronatalist ideals and population growth, which in turn destroyed whatever gains might have occurred and restored the per capita production level to its original state. Therefore, in his view, humans had the tendency not only to produce more, but also to reproduce more to compensate for the increased production. This scenario in Malthus’ view, could be termed the "Malthusian trap", Malthusian catastrophe"  or the "Malthusian spectre". (This is also variously known as a population trap, point of crisis or no return, Malthusian check, Malthusian crisis, or Malthusian crunch) Only war, famine, pestilence and disease could control population, in his view. This view may appear to be somewhat dystopian and cynical by today’s standards, though some elements of his view may still hold good. While Malthusian ideas are somewhat outdated and fallacious, he did lay the foundation for modern population studies, and must be credited for it. He also sounded the bugle and made a clarion call for humanity to behave itself, and conduct its own affairs more responsibly.

Malthus also rightly argued that resources are limited, and that it was humans’ responsibility to conserve them at any cost. Therefore, in his view, resources grow arithmetically, while population grows geometrically meaning that there is a constant difference between the two, and that population growth will eventually outstrip resources. This has the propensity to lead to widespread famine, war, poverty, disease and inequality which alone can effectively control populations. The Irish potato famine of the nineteenth century is considered a classic example of a Malthusian catastrophe, though many other famines have since occurred, despite an overall increase in prosperity and standards of living not only in the west, but in much of what is today known or referred to as the developing world. His ideas were not universally endorsed, and many others most notably Jean-Jacques Rousseau, William Godwin, and Marquis de Condorcet held different or opposing views on the subject. Malthus’ work inspired Charles Darwin and Alfred Russell Wallace to work out the mechanics of natural selection, and was in many other ways highly influential. Malthusianism however, also attracted strident and wide ranging criticism from diverse schools of thought, including  Marxists and socialists, Georgists, libertarians and free market advocates, feminists, Catholics, and human rights advocates, who characterized it as highly and excessively pessimistic, insufficiently and inadequately researched, misanthropic or even  inhuman. This is sometimes known as the Malthusian controversy which later snowballed into the neo-Malthusian controversy. Likewise, Thomas McKeown argued that population increased were caused by reduced mortality rather than increased fertility. Mortality, according to him, reduced due to increased living standards and improved nutrition.

In response to his critics, Malthus updated his works many times, and brought out several updated versions and editions of his books. Most recent research has also not vindicated Malthus’ proposals completely; technology has improved beyond anyone’s expectations or wildest imaginations, ever since the first, second, third and fourth industrial revolutions, and agricultural production and efficiency has skyrocketed. At the same time, total fertility rates have been brought down in most regions of the world to safe levels, even many developing ones. In some parts of the world, fertility declines have been nothing short of jaw droppingly impressive. Malthus did not anticipate social, cultural and economic changes which made smaller families more popular. Malthusianism later morphed into Neo-Malthusianism which is the advocacy of human population planning to ensure resources and environmental integrities for current and future human populations as well as for other species. Neo-Malthusians tend to be much more concerned about the environment than Malthus ever was. Family planning through artificial extraneous intervention (much less commonly, self-restraint) is sometimes seen as a euphemistic term for birth control or population control, though the two concepts may vary considerably. Family welfare is an even more euphemistic term for family planning. Future research must be necessarily and always data driven, and as we will argue, ethnography and fieldwork driven. [5] [6] [7]

In the field of demography, the theory of demographic transition is a widely accepted theory which describes a historical shift from a society characterized by both high birth rates and high death rates to one marked by both low birth rates and low death rates, as societies attain become more technologically advanced, better educated, their people more economically independent, and empower women more.  The demographic transition has been observed and witnessed in most parts of the world over the past two centuries or so, reducing birth rates greatly, and slowing down population growth significantly. The correlation between economic development and low fertility has also been clearly established through data drawn from different parts of the world, and this is now a widely accepted fact. The demographic transition is however not uniform, and is occurring at different rates in different parts of the world; in some parts of the world, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, the demographic transition has barely begun yet. Demographic transition is many ways good for the planet because it reduces the pressure and the strain on natural resources; it also depletes natural resources a lot more slowly, and increases land and capital availability; it can also improve the quality of labour and manpower resources as opposed to quantity of such resources. It also reduces poverty greatly or significantly, and increases social bonding and social cohesiveness.

The theory of demographic transition was first developed in the year 1930 by the American demographer Warren Thompson based on a study of diverse data starting from the Eighteenth century. Warren Thompson spoke about pre-industrial, urbanizing or industrializing, mature industrial, and post-industrial states were countries transitioned from high birth rates and high death rates to lob birth rates and low death rates. Death rates first fell rapidly due to rapid medical advances, leading to rapid increases in populations. Adolphe Landry, a French researchers made similar observations on demographic patterns and population growth around the same time. Some time later, in the 1940s and 1950s, the American demographer Frank W. Notestein developed a much more formal and a structured theory of demographic transition. By the 2000’s, the existence of a negative correlation between fertility and industrial development was widely accepted by most social scientists. In 2011, the unified growth theory was completed, the demographic transition becomes an important part in unified growth theory.  Unified growth theory suggests that during most of human existence, technological progress was offset by population growth, leading to subsistence living standards in most places, with little or no improvement. This is also ratified by most endogenous development models, and we must indeed study parenting models based on anthropological models of economic development using the scientific methodologies we had proposed. Even though much of the modern world has fallen below the replacement level of fertility, post-replacement fertility behavior is yet to be formally studied.

The following are the stages in demographic transition. The transition involves four stages, or possibly five.

Stage one: In pre-industrial societies, death rates and birth rates were both typically and traditionally extremely high, and were at mercy to natural events, such as droughts, famines, floods and disease. While populations were youthful, infant mortality was high, and human longevity and life spans extremely low. Women were seen as baby-producing machines, and infertile women were often frowned upon. Child labour was common, and children were barely educated.

Stage two: This stage leads to a fall in death rates due to rapid medical advances, increased or improved health or sanitation, and a resultant sudden increase or a spike in population which is also sometimes referred to as a population explosion. Better agricultural practices and better farm yields also lead to lower death rates. Most regions in Sub Saharan Africa, and some regions in Asia are currently in this stage.

Stage three: In Stage three of the demographic transition model, death rates are low and birth rates decline, due to improved economic conditions, an increase in women's empowerment and education, increased urbanization, and better access to contraception and awareness of family planning methods. Parents tend to educate their children better, and lavish them with care and affection. This stage may be highly ununiform with different nations taking on different trajectories. This state naturally takes countries closer to population stabilization, or low population growth.

Stage four: Stage four is said to occur when birth and death rates are both low, thereby leading to a gradual population stability. Death rates are low for many different reasons, primarily better access to health care, and higher production of food. The birth rate is low because of access to different forms contraception. Women tend to work too, and pursue their own careers.

Stage five: In this auxiliary stage which was not a part of the original model, population ageing occurs as people want to have very few children or do not want to have children at all. Many men and women may even choose not to marry, and remain single. Some may even prefer live in relationships. Ageing is now rapidly underway in much of Europe and large swathes of Asia.  The rest of the world may eventually go this way too. [8] [9] [10]

Paul Ralph Ehrlich (who is not to be confused with the Nobel Prize-winning German physician and scientist who worked in the fields of immunology, hematology, and antimicrobial chemotherapy earlier in the century) is an noted American demographer and biologist working at the Stanford University who is known for his doomsday predictions and his dire warnings about the dangerous, catastrophic and unintended consequences of unbridled population growth, such as famine, social unrest, violence, desertification and mass starvation. Ehrlich’s somewhat controversial 1968 book “The Population Bomb”, famously and rather dramatically stated "In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate ... "Ehrlich also famously stated that couples should be coerced not to have kids, and that penalties, punishments, and coercions were the only way, combined with contraception and abortion. Ehrlich further added, "We must have population control at home, hopefully through a system of incentives and penalties, but by compulsion if voluntary methods fail. We must use our political power to push other countries into programs which combine agricultural development and population control." 

In 1967, Ehrlich went so far as to insist that some countries (such as India for example, which was then seen to be a hopeless basket case) be allowed to starve, while aid should only be given to those countries that were not considered to be "hopeless" or basket cases. Other critics have put forth mixed reactions on Ehrlich's articulation on the dangers of expanding human populations. While Paul A. Murtaugh, concurs with Ehrlich, others such as Ronald Bailey, Charles C. Mann,Thomas Sowell and Jonathan V. Last state that Ehrlich was highly pessimistic and cynical, and that his views were somewhat misleading. Ehrlich had many left wing critics too, who stated that he had seldom or scarcely spoken about the distribution of resources. The economist Julian Simon also argued in 1980 that overpopulation was not a problem as such and that humanity would adapt to changing conditions. Simon argued that human creativity would eventually improve and raise living standards, and that most resources were replaceable. Ehrlich was subsequently proven to have been somewhat wrong and off the mark; fertility rates have since fallen precipitously and off a cliff in many different parts of the world, owing in large part to better education, and rapid increase in living standards across the globe. Some of Ehrlich’s other observations regarding New Delhi and Mongolia for example, were also proven to be off the mark, in spite of a famine in India in the 1960’s, and the infamous PL480 program.

Ehrlich however, seldom acknowledged he was wrong; he vindicated his own stance in spite of other allegations of its weaknesses and imperfections, and defended his position to the hilt. Ehlich has earlier criticized India; in subsequent works however, he was also extremely critical of the United States for its over consumption patterns. He even went so far as to state in 1971: "By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people. If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000." Ehrlich also continued to build upon his work; he even later speculated on Optimum Human Population Sizes which in his view was between 1.5 and 2 billion people (in the year 1994). This optimum Human Population size has of course far been exceeded (and by several orders of magnitude). Ehrlich’s works did create a positive impact in some ways; for example, it woke countries and nations up from their respective dogmatic slumbers, and goaded them into positive and fruitful action. Ehrlich again defended his stance in a 2018 interview with “The Guardian”, which half-heartedly acknowledging some of the weaknesses of his thesis. Ehrlich and his colleague Rodolfo Dirzo argued in a 2022 paper that there was a need to reduce fertility rates among over consuming wealthy and middle classes, and reduce wasteful consumption in general, with the ultimate goal being to reduce "the scale of the human enterprise" in order to save humanity from collapse. Ehrlich also partook in many other activities. He was one of the founders of the group “Zero Population Growth” (renamed Population Connection) in 1968, along with Richard Bowers and Charles Lee Remington. In 1971, Ehrlich was elected to the “Common Cause National Governing Board”, and was a part of the board of advisers of the “Federation for American Immigration Reform”. He is also a part of “Population Matters”, (formerly known as the “Optimum Population Trust”). [11] [12]

Population movement in India

In India, the importance of family planning was realized by some early thinkers such as Raghunath Dhondo Karve way back in the 1920’s. At that time however, the merits of birth control were not widely realized, and contemporary thinkers such as Mahatma Gandhi and Periyar EVR had a diversity of opinions on the issue of birth control.  In 1952, India under Jawaharlal Nehru, became practically the first country in the entire developing world to implement an intensive government-sponsored family planning program, also called the National Family Planning Program. This program was even built into India’s early five year plans. Among the program's objectives was to reduce total fertility rates in order to slow down population growth, and accelerate the process of economic progress. In keeping with the demographic ideals of the nation, the program was purely voluntary. Hence, initial progress was slow, and the demographic transition in India took place much more slowly than it did in China, and other countries. In India, the TFR in the early 1950’s was around six children per women, very high of course, but way lower that some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa at that time. By 2023, India had already reached its replacement level of fertility, and took over seventy five years after independence, to do so. One mistake early planners may have made was to discount the importance education could play in bringing down birth rates, particularly women’s education. Thus, literacy rates, particularly women’s literacy rates remained low in the early decades of India’s independence. India’s literacy rate was estimated to be 34% in 1971, and 43% in 1981 according to decadal census figures, which is extremely low indeed. It was not until the 2000’s that more meaningful universalization of education programs such as the Sarva Siksha Abhiyan were launched, and began to have a substantial and a significant impact on various aspects and facets of daily life. The right to education act was not passed by the Indian government until the year 2009.

India at that time also pursued a semi-Stalinist planned economic programme, and it is even said that some planners even believed that India would not  be able to produce or generate enough jobs if too many of its people were highly educated. India therefore pursued a “vertical approach” to family planning, and neglected additional factors such as education, women’s empowerment, poverty reduction, rapid economic development etc. According to some other sources, the importance and the ideals of family planning were also not properly communicated to the masses. While nobody today considers India’s family planning programme to be an absolute or a dismal failure, progress was initially slow and tardy, and the TFR was brought down only very gradually, at least in the initial years. There were also wide variations by region and community, and such disparities were initially not sought to be addressed. In some states, people with over two children were disincentivized from holding government jobs. Monetary incentives were also provided, though these were small. To make matters worse, forced sterilization programmes and campaigns were launched during the emergency of the mid-1970’s, and these appear to have boomeranged and backfired horribly, setting India’s family planning programmes by several years at least, if not several decades. 

However, birth rates have since steadily fallen; Kerala was the first to achieve replacement TFR in 1988, followed by Tamilnadu in 1993, and many other states followed in quick succession. As of 2024, even Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have reached replacement level fertility, while fertility rates in parts of north India such as Punjab, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are even lower than that of the south. Uttar Pradesh may not reach a replacement level figure until 2027, in spite of the recent announcement of a new population control policy there, while Bihar and Meghalaya may not reach replacement TFR until the 2030’s. There is a gap between Hindus and Muslims, which slowly appears to be narrowing. An interesting case is however, Jammu and Kashmir which, despite being Muslim majority now has a total fertility rate that is well below replacement. Therefore, we must never over-simplify issues; there will always be a wide range of parameters to be considered. A grounds up and a data driven approach must also always be carried out.

Of late, some groups of people in India (those belonging to different parts of India, as a matter of fact) have begun to draw inspiration from concerns raised by people in different parts of the West and the Far East where birth rates are far, far lower than they presently are in India, and have begun to advocate for higher birth rates. This argument is fallacious, if not outright dangerous. This argument is known as pronatalism, and draws heavily from highly neoliberal interpretations of economic development which blindly (and often fallaciously) equate faster economic development with higher populations. This philosophy also translates into government policy such as incentives for more children, and is contrasted sharply and starkly with antinatalism. This is not only bad for the environment, but is bound to put a heavy strain on natural resources. Such people have also invoked the idea of a “demographic dividend” from time to time. This concept is sometimes heavily misunderstood, and is somewhat of a misnomer. According to the idea of a demographic dividend, sometimes known as the demographic gift, the economy of a country stands to benefit if it has a large number of people, or a large proportion of the population in the working age group.

However, there is a caveat here; people must be sufficiently trained and skilled to contribute meaningfully to the economy. Studies have repeatedly shown that parents with smaller families tend to take care of their children better and educate them better. This idea and notion has also been reinforced with data from countries such as China and South Korea. Children born to such parents are then also able to contribute to government taxes better, and even take care of their parents better in such cases. Therefore, all dimensions of any issue must be taken into account and consideration at all times, with data and case studies culled from all parts of the world, and from all cultures, and not just from one narrow geographical region. While we do agree that extremely low birth rates can have negative economic consequences, India is nowhere near that stage yet. In most Indian states, total fertility rates are around 1.7 to 1.8 children per woman (a rate or figure most people would consider ideal), while in some other states, total fertility rates are even higher than that. If birth rates fall to much, much lower levels, than can we begin to worry. Even then the number of children people beget or produce is their own choice. Let us also not additionally put the cart before the horse.

What is total fertility rate?

The term “Total fertility rate” also often abbreviated to TFR is a widely used, though somewhat misunderstood term today. The term has often been twisted and maligned in the press by reporters who have not understood the essence of the term. But what exactly is a total fertility rate?  To put it in simple terms, the term “total fertility rate”, (which is a purely synthetic rate) in the average number of children a woman in a given society or culture could be expected to bear in her lifetime based on age-specific birth rates, assuming that she lives till the end of her childbearing age.  The total fertility rate depends on a large number of factors including social, cultural and economic factors and varies widely from country to country, and region to region. It ranges from a high of 6.6 children per woman in Niger, (the TFR there has been more than 7.0 for most of this century) to 0.90 children per woman in South Korea (both figures are estimates for 2024 by the United Nations population fund). There are of course, several variants of the basic theme. Sometimes, age group-specific fertility rates are also calculated, though this is relatively less common. Total fertility rates are computed or calculated annually for different countries, territories, or geographical areas, and mid-year estimated values are most commonly taken into consideration for this purpose. Total fertility rates may often be used to prepare population projections for a given region, and commonly low variant, medium variant, and high variant projections are also prepared.

Another useful but interesting and interrelated concept is that of replacement total fertility rate. The replacement level total fertility rate is that TFR which is required for a population to exactly replace itself. Even though common sense warrants and dictates that the replacement TFR is exactly two children per woman, this is not most commonly the case; this is because all children may not live till maturity or child-bearing age. Therefore, the replacement level TFR is most often considered to be 2.1 children per woman; this figure is generally true of more developed regions and economies. In less developed societies and economies, the replacement level TFR may be somewhat higher that this, say 2.2 to 2.3 children per woman. Any country or society which achieves a replacement level TFR, can be expected to maintain its population in the long-term. The term long-term is extremely important here, and must be carefully emphasized. We must use the word long-term because there is always a population momentum, and population stabilization occurs only a few decades after, replacement level TFR is attained, usually two or three. Population momentum can be said to occur, because it is not only the number of children per woman that determine population growth, but also the number of women in the reproductive age group or bracket. Population therefore only stops growing when the number of births equals to the number of deaths. This is simple mathematics. The time taken for population stabilization or zero population growth would also depend on other factors such as the intensity of decline of the TFR after it has crossed the replacement threshold, though two or three decades is a reliable mean number.

In the field of demography, the theory of demographic transition is a theory which has been widely attested to by empirical data in various societies and cultures over the past two or three centuries. It was initially developed based on observations made by Warren Thompson, Adolphe Landry, and others. This theory refers to, and reflects a historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in traditional or backward societies with a low level of technological percolation, a low level education, women’s empowerment, and economic development, (in primitive and backward societies, death rates were also high due to wars, famines, droughts, and internecine strife) to a state of low birth rates and low death rates in societies with much more advanced technology, high levels of education, women’s empowerment, and economic development. This theory also maps the different intermediary stages between these two extreme scenarios. For example, in early years populations remained stable because of high birth and death rates, famines and wars – however, a sudden reduction of death rates due to an improvement of medical facilities for example, led to a population explosion. Many countries have now successfully and effectively transitioned to the last state where both birth and death rates are low, or even where birth rates are lower than death rates; thus, doomsayers have been effectively proved wrong. Birth rates have fallen from around five children per woman in the middle of the nineteenth century, to slightly over two children per woman today.

Almost half the world’s population today lives in countries with below replacement birth rates, and birth rates are falling or plummeting everywhere. The only significant exceptions and outliers can be said to be much of Sub-Saharan Africa, and isolated pockets of Asia such as Afghanistan and the Phillipines. Even in these regions or countries, total fertility rates are gradually falling, and it is only a matter of time that these regions or countries reach replacement fertility rates, as and when there is greater economic prosperity, an enhanced standard of living, and women’s empowerment and education, including more employment opportunities for women. Birth rates also decline people more and more people appreciate, and warm up to the importance of education as a vital game changer. Low TFR’s are in many ways a good thing, because it boosts per capita land stock, increases investment in human capital in general, and reduces environmental degradation.  Many people who proposed that religious, cultural and economic factors would play a major role in determining fertility rates have also been partly proven wrong.  Birth rates are falling everywhere, including in developing countries, thereby boosting socio-economic progress to a great degree. The co-relation between the two is very nearly an established fact, and the correlation between these two factors is often bidirectional and multidimensional. 

What is population momentum?

Population momentum is the tendency or a potential for a population to continue to grow or decline, even when fertility, mortality, and net migration rates remain constant or unchanged. This is due to the age structure of the population, which is determined by many different factors such as total fertility, mortality, and migration rates. Population momentum can be positive or negative, though it usually has a positive connotation.  Therefore, from the above analogy, a population with a relatively young age structure will continue to grow even if fertility rates attain replacement level. This is because the number of births from the large number of women of reproductive age is greater than the number of deaths in the total population. The population momentum will continue unchanged for a few decades till perfect population equilibrium arising from zero growth rates are obtained.  Population momentum must also be always necessarily studied in relation to the theory of demographic transition. Infant mortality rate (abbreviated to IMR) is the probability that a child will die before its first birthday, and is measured per one thousand live births. The maternal mortality rate is the number of maternal deaths per one hundred thousand births, and is another widely used and adopted measure in population studies.

Demographic dividend

The term “Demographic dividend”, as it has been defined by the United Nations Population Fund, refers to "the economic growth potential that invariably results from shifts that occur in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working age population of a country or the world taken as a whole is larger than the non-working-age share of the population ". (The latter comprises both old people, and children) To word it differently, a demographic dividend is a boost in economic productivity and economic performance that occurs when there is a relatively large number of people in the workforce relative to the number of old and young dependents. Therefore, any country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend which may lead to faster economic growth in the short and in the medium term. A demographic dividend also arises from a shift in a countries age structure, as populations grow older or grey. Changes in the age structure of a population occur due to many factors that may include increasing life expectancy, declining child mortality and declining fertility due to lifestyle and cultural changes that transform the structure of populations. This observation has been noted in many different regions in the world, and across continents, both developed and developing ones. There are however, many exceptions particularly in Sub Saharan Africa, where fertility transition is just beginning, or has not yet begun. Demographic dividend has also sometimes been termed the "demographic gift". However, in order for demographic dividend to be realized, the younger population must have access to high quality education, adequate nutrition and health care that also includes access to sexual and reproductive health. Changes in age structure also lead to what is known as a “demographic bulge” that is transmitted across the age structure. This bulge in traditional societies is young, but it later moves to the productive age populations, and then finally to old age populations.

In many nations, women also enter the work force, and contribute to the economy. This process is accelerated as traditional societies collapse, and women enjoy greater reproductive freedom. This may in turn decrease birth rates, though birth rates have declined due to a large number of other factors as well, even in relatively traditional and conservative societies. However, there are many nations in the world where fertility transition has not begun, and the factors for change and non-change must be systematically assessed and meticulously analyzed. For this, we believe that field work and ethnography are necessary. Patterns and universals must also be unearthed, and for this vast tomes of reliable data is necessary. There are approximately two billion people between the ages of 10 and 25 in the world today; this age group has increased rapidly, though it is now peaking in many countries excluding most of Africa. All said and done the demographic dividend does indeed present some opportunities such as increased savings, expanded workforce, and increased human capital. However, rampant population growth is dangerous, and there are many limitations of the concept of demographic dividend as we will discussed elsewhere in this chapter. In sum, it can lead to disastrous ecological and environmental consequences. Some pronatialists also discount the importance of education which is of sub par quality in many parts of the world – we need quality human resources, not just quantity. Trade offs are always necessary, and we must adopt a long-term and a universal approach – aeternitism and omnimodism. We must also adopt an epistemologically coherent view – epistemic coherentism. The benefits of smaller populations far outstrip the benefits of larger populations. This is quite literally and virtually a no-brainer.

Demographic window

The concept of demographic window is closely tied and closely related to the theory of demographic dividend, and the two are indeed tightly interrelated. A “Demographic Window” may be said to be that period of time in a nation's demographic evolution when the proportion of population of working age group is at its highest, before it begins to gradually shrink or decline. This phase occurs when the demographic structure of a population remains young and the percentage of people who work and contribute to the economy is at  its zenith. The theory of demographic window is often conveniently and neatly subdivided into many phases such as the traditional phase, pre-window phase, early window phase, mid window phase, late window phase, and the post window phase. After a few decades, sustained low fertility rates may cause populations to gradually get older and older. The pace at which this happens is of course related to fertility behavior after replacement level fertility has been reached. The last concept delineated above has scarcely been examined, probed or investigated with the level of seriousness it merits or deserves. We contest the overall theory and concept just as we contest the theory of demographic dividend in its original and undiluted form. Many countries with low fertility rates are doing well as they have adapted to the change reality and scenario, and the new normal. Instead, we propose the theory and the concept of the “Evergreen demographic boon arising from relatively low birth rates” in this book. This is a long term and an integrated view and must be adopted at all costs, and under any circumstances.

Demographic winter

The concept of “Demographic Winter” refers to a situation where a population experiences a sustained and a long-term decline due to sustained very low birth rates and an aging population. The term “demographic winter” refers to a situation where birth rates fall significantly below the replacement level, leading to an aging population, a shrinking workforce, societal changes, and economic challenges. The term was coined in response to potential consequences of demographic shifts in developed economies. By 2024, there were over 800 million people aged 65 and older, making up around a tenth of the global population.

A demographically divided world

We live in a demographically highly divided world. Birth rates range from as high as seven children in Niger in Sub Saharan Africa to less than one child per woman in South Korea. The majority of the countries with the highest fertility rates are in Sub Saharan Africa with an average fertility rate of over 4.5 children per woman Countries like Somalia, (6.2 children per woman) Angola (5.8 children per woman), the Democratic Republic of Congo (5.5 children per woman), Mali (5.5 children per woman), Benin (5.4 children per woman), and Senegal (4.3 children per woman). Of all this, Nigeria's fertility rate is most alarming – it has barely decreased from 6.35 in 1960 to 5.3 in 2019, implying that something is seriously wrong. What is extremely worrying and concerning is that Nigeria has a large population base to begin with. In Africa, only Tunisia has reached replacement level fertility, while South Africa is close. South Korea’s total fertility rate was computed at 0.68 children per woman in 2024, while Singapore’s, Taiwan’s, and Macau’s hover at around the one child per woman mark, well below replacement. Japan’s and China’s total fertility rates hover at around the 1.2 children per woman mark. Much of Europe has a fertility of between 1.3 and 1.4 children per woman – there are some outliers and some exceptions. France has a relatively high TFR of 1.7 children per woman, while Italy’s is even lower than the European average at 1.2 children per woman.  The global population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to eight billion in 2022, and is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100 largely driven by the population momentum. This may be somewhat of an underestimation, as we believe, human populations have an innate and intrinsic propensity to increase. There is also a scare that humans will be gradually replaced by Artificial Intelligence, but this fear is largely unfounded and unjustified, at least at present.

Weaknesses of the theory of demographic dividend

There are several fundamental and foundational weaknesses of the theory of demographic dividend, and we present some of them below. Most open minded researchers must be aware of these concepts, and we will believe and argue that no sensible, balanced and objective researcher should advocate unbridled, and no holds barred pronatalism. As a matter of fact, this would be alarmingly dangerous. Readers may also want to research some other concepts such as demographic bombs or demographic threats. These may have different meanings in different contexts and situations:

1.       Quality of human resources

We must understand and bear in mind that fact that superior human resources can create the most central, basic, and powerful strategic competitive advantage possible, and human resources management should be accorded pride of place in economic planning and economic decision making. Alas, and rather unfortunately so, this has not yet happened because most societies are still transitioning from a left-wing mindset to a right wing mindset, and the right kind of theoretical frameworks have not yet fallen into place. According to UNESCO, skilling and quality of education is extremely important. To quote UNESCO: “Those aspects of the educational process involving, in addition to general education, the study of technologies and related sciences, and the acquisition of practical skills, attitudes, understanding and knowledge relating to occupations in various sectors of economic and social life.” The Indian government has also launched the Skill India mission. The Skill India Mission launched by the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship (MSDE) is currently working on establishing one “Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Kendra” in each district of the country, and has established over 800 centres this far. The “Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana” (abbreviated as PMKVY), launched in 2015, provides free short-term skill training to youth along with a monetary incentive for individuals who have successfully completed training programs.

However, as the Author observed, the quality of human resources in India is subpar and is sorely lacking in terms of multifaceted, interdisciplinary and internally consistent skills. Many children could not read or write properly, with very poor performance, in English, (even matriculates lacked the knowledge of basic English words young children would be expected to know) science, mathematics, or general knowledge.  Many are barely employable. In this connection, recent calls for pronatalism in some quarters in India come as an unwelcome and an unpleasant surprise. Do we want to create an Africa like situation in India with millions of unemployable, and unemployed youth? Therefore, not all adults contribute equally to the economy or to the nation. Let us put this into our pipe and smoke it. We need to move from cost arbitrage to skill arbitrage while at the same times providing a multidimensionally broad spectrum of services.. To make matters worse there is an anti-English sentiment in some quarters particularly in the RSS and sections of the BJP. This does not augur or bode well for India. English is the only viable neutral link language. Hindi represents the language of a region of India, and divides on the basis of ethnicity.

Some alarming results from a study we had conducted several years ago, are as follows, along with possible course corrections proposed. Also read our multiple publications on pedagogy published over the years. We also advocate the use of artificial intelligence, robots and computers in education, down to the smallest of villages, though this will take time as infrastructure is barely available or ready support this cause, most important reliable power supply. We also need to create intellectual classes and creative classes at the same time. We had dwelt upon this in detail in our paper on Anthropological Economics:

S.No	Name of person interviewed or cited	Location	Educational Attainment	Blooper	Possible remediation
1	Rajesh (Name changed)	Anantapur district, Andhra Pradesh, India	7th grade (Government school)	Believed in the Flat earth; has no idea it was round	Teach Evolution and Astronomy as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
2	Krishnakumar (Name changed)	West Godavari District, AP	5th grade (Government school)	Believed that the earth was 2000 old. Traced it from the current Gregorian calendar.	Teach Evolution and Anthropological Historiography as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
3	Sreenivasulu (Name changed)	Anantapur, AP	7th grade (Government school)	Sun goes around the earth. Did not know anything about the solar system excepting for some astrology: Education apparently failed him badly.	Teach Astronomy which is barely taught in schools, as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
4	Manish (Name changed)	Bangalore	10th grade (Government school)	Dinosaurs are unscientific; heard of them but did not believe in them. He however, believed in mythology.	Teach Evolution which is barely taught in schools, as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
5	Dr.Rakesh Kumar (Name changed)	Bangalore	Ph.D	Believed in Pushpaka Vimanas after completing Ph.D	Teach students how to distinguish between science and pseudo-science.
6	Satyapal Singh	Satyapal Singh is India's Minister of State for Human Resource Development responsible for Higher Education.	Post-graduate in Science	Evolution is unscientific	Teach Evolution which is barely taught in schools, as an antidote to religious inspired constructs. Discuss all the evidence available and the lacunae with other models.
7	Dr Zakir Naik	Islamic Preacher	Ph.D	Evolution is unscientific	May have vested interests here. Classes on Anthropological Historiography and the origin of religion may help.
8	Dr. Dinesh Sharma	Deputy Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh	Ph.D	Sita Test tube baby	Ignorance. Teach the concepts of science better. Anthropological Historiography must include the history of science.
9	Tripura CM	Media		Internet in the Epic Age	-do-
10	Zaheeruddin (Name changed)	Silchar, Assam	Class XI (Government school)	Despite being a Muslim, was not sure who Aurangazeb was.	Poor quality of education. Evaluate course contents and teaching methods. Evaluate teacherless training and other methods.
11	Various	Various	Various	The history of copper, bronze or Iron is unknown. The history of the origin of various technologies are unknown.	Remediate as applicable. Evaluate on a case to case basis
12	Various	Various	Various	No concept of time. Basic co-ordinates of time not understood	Focus on basics of history. Read concepts of Twenty-first century historiography

 

2.       Fallacy of composition

The fallacy of composition is a logical fallacy in science that occurs when it is fallaciously assumed that the properties of a whole are the same as the properties of its parts. This usually leads to incorrect conclusions because the collective and distributive properties of a group are not always the same, and a much more detailed analysis may be warranted. Fallacy of composition therefore arises when a compositional analysis of data is ignored, and the breakup of data, particularly in qualitative terms is not analyzed. For example, in a country, we may have a large number of children being born, but their educational attainments or professional qualifications are seldom carefully analyzed and factored into account in an analysis. This is not also often not done because proper theoretical frameworks relating demographics with economics and economic performance have not yet been formally put in place anywhere in the world. As birth rates decline in a society, more skilled labour and more skilled workforce may or may not replace retiring workforce, and we may witness different scenarios in different contexts. Also, less educated parents may give birth to more children, and more educated parents may give birth to less children. Even if the children are well educated, it may affect the enculturation or acculturation process. Refer to our earlier papers on enculturation and acculturation which are well accepted concepts in anthropology and sociology. Less educated parents who work harder and longer hours may not be able to take care of their children and their progeny as well as more established parents do or provide them with the necessary knowledge or expertise.  This is especially true of the girl child. One solution is adoption, but this often needs a change in cultural mindset. Even in countries with high fertility, only a few may benefit, and high fertility may actually boost and perpetuate poverty. It may even boost the number of low-skilled or unskilled resources. This will increase unemployability and decrease employment.

3.       A western-centric model

This theory may also be somewhat western centric in orientation. In countries such as India, ground realities are somewhat different. The country is already overpopulation with a high density of resources, and there is already a strain on resources. Low birth rates in such countries may increase the demand for upskilling of resources, and increase the supply of high quality of resources. This is because the ratio of skilled labour as a percentage of total labour force in countries like India is still extremely low. Therefore, standards of living will eventually rise there in the long term in the scenario of relatively low birth rates. Furthermore, countries like India lie in global warming hotspots, and the consequences of unbridled population growth could be disastrous.

4.       Environment

There is myth of perfectly sustainable development. While the world is racing towards a new zero carbon dioxide emissions environment with coal and to a lesser extent fossil fuels already being phased out, it is a myth that humans will ever be able to live in perfect and absolute harmony with the environment, though they can, and indeed must try. Solar power is vastly better for the environment than unabated coal – by several orders of magnitude and must indeed be promoted at any costs. However, solar cells contain some toxic elements such as nickel and cadmium and must be recycled. Plastics are another nightmare, and so is paper. Bioplastics involve agriculture, and so does bagasse based paper production. While there are indeed solutions to every problem which must be aggressively promote, there is always some trade off involved.  Even lithium ion batteries involve rare earth materials, upcoming sodium ion batteries promise to be a whole lot better though. Electric cars are also only as clear as the power that produces them. We must ditch coal and fossil fuels first. Agriculture degrades the environment and consumes natural resources such as water, and so does livestock and poultry. Some people promote veganism, but this involves cultural changes and may not happen for the most part. The world’s top most polluting industries include aviation, fashion, and construction which may not become green any time soon.  As people get richer and richer, the environmental footprint created by sectors such as aviation will increase rapidly. Therefore, humans will create an environmental footprint always. If humans want to maintain high standards of living, there must be some trade off; socialism has largely failed, but there are other solutions available, both technological and non-technological.

4. Solutions to combat low fertility

There are many textbook and non text book solutions to combat low fertility without raising or boosting birth rates. Many are neat and have stood the test of time. Countries with low fertility have done well economically, and in India the well-developed and industrialized state of Tamil Nadu is a prime example. It is booming as an IT hub and a major manufacturing centre. Countries like Japan, Germany, and the UK too seem to be doing reasonably well. It is only in South Korea that birth rates seem to be dangerously and alarmingly low. Japan has resisted immigration this far; Germany has mostly taken in low-skilled immigrants till date, as has much of Europe. Moderately low fertility may also be beneficial for the economy, as parents invariably and inevitably lavish a great deal of attention to their children bringing them up better. This has been observed and witnessed in many parts of the world including China. Other solutions to low fertility besides improved pedagogical design include immigration, skilling, outsourcing, off shoring, near shoring, workforce automation, industrial robots, artificial intelligence, agricultural drones, farm mechanization, etc. There could of course be many, many more and we may think up of many more in the years and decades to come. After all, it is said that necessity is the mother of invention.

5.       Trade-offs required

A trade-off involves decision making that incorporates a reduction or compromise in quality, quantity, or any other property in exchange for gains in other aspects or properties. To word it differently, a tradeoff is a situation one aspect or property increases, and another resultantly decreases either proportionately or non-proportionately. This approach may also require tweaking of concepts and configurations. This concept has widespread use in the physical and natural sciences, though it can be used in other fields of study as well, including the social sciences. This approach is also widely used in decision making. For example, investors may be willing to lose returns for liquidity or safety of investment. They may also reduce expected or anticipated returns for safety and security. Such an approach and technique can also be used in the design of economic systems. For example, private sector employment may not guarantee job security, but it can lead to rapid growth. Marxists may loathe and frown upon private sector enterprise, but they are losing out on opportunity because of the limited employability of public sector firms. This approach can be used not only in the social sciences which we emphasize on, and specialize in, but in other fields of science as well. For example, automobile manufactures may increase weight of an automobile to ensure safety; however, improved technology may make this trade off irrelevant and redundant, as lighter automobiles can also be safe. Tradeoffs are also central to TRIZ methodology, and we have discussed this elsewhere. Trade-offs are also necessary in population management; we have discussed the concept of epistemic coherentism in a previous paper, and short term requirements must be mapped to medium term and long term requirements and considerations. Local considerations must also be mapped to global considerations at the same time. The benefits of low birth rates therefore far exceed and far outstrip the benefits of high birth rates. We have also proposed concepts such as prioritization, resolution of paradoxes, neo-centrism, aeternitism, and omnimodism in our previous papers. All these concepts will impact the proposals of this book, and the conclusions reached in this book in some way or the other, and to some degree or the other. [13] [14] [15]

What is pronatalism?

Pronatalism refers to the general idea or belief that human reproduction is an extremely important goal for human societies regardless of its negative consequences and that birth rates consequently should be as high as possible. Most variants of this approach also call for increasing birth rates in order to boost economic growth regardless of environmental and social consequences. Pronatalism is primarily of two types; the first is pronatalism as a chiefly and primarily personal value.  In such a case, individuals believe in the ideals of pronatalism at a personal level, and make every effort to implement it at a personal realm and domain while only influencing others in a limited way. The second is pronatalism as a policy goal or a policy paradigm. In such a case, governments put forth policies or guidelines to promote high birth rates or otherwise unwanted births regardless of any other types of consequences that may exist. Extreme versions of pronatalism may also condemn abortion, contraceptives, and the use of other birth control measures.

Since the dawn of the twenty-first century, the highly misplaced if not out rightly dangerous threat of a "global demographic collapse" began to take root in the political right, the religious right, and among some venture capitalist circles. This school and train of thought argues that humans will stop reproducing entirely. Not only is this highly fallacious and misleading, but it is also deplorable, and highly condemnable for its alarming tomes. It runs contrary to common sense, and among this proponents rather unfortunately and alarmingly was Elon Musk, who was otherwise concerned about the environment, and preoccupied with environmental issues. Natalism or pronatalism was also promoted by other figures such as Viktor Orban of Hungary, Kevin Dolan, organizer of the Natal Conference, Simone and Malcolm Collins, founders of the website Pronatalist.org, and some others. Many right-wing proponents of pronatalism argue that falling birthrates could lead to economic stagnation, diminished innovation, and an unsustainable burden on social systems due to an aging population. These concerns are not only grossly misplaced but are also highly abominable. This is because such statements can mislead people, and produce millions of unwanted births. There are many ways a society can deal with ageing and other population matters. There are indeed innovative and creative solutions, and these can and must be implemented. We must fight and opposed such knee-jerk reactions or thinking in silos tooth and nail. Hence, this endeavour. Hence, this book.

The exact opposite of pronatalism is antinatalism, which is the idea of discouraging and being generally unsupportive of increasing the birth rate, at least through artificial means. This ideal may again be fostered, nurtured and cherished at an individual level, or it may take on a governmental approach, with government initiatives rolled out as required. Extreme versions of antinatalism even go to the extent of arguing that humans are a threat to mother earth, and therefore, do not even deserve to exist. Some even argue that humanity must be wiped out. Such positions are also of course extremely rare. The Birth control movement famously and dramatically began in the west through the efforts of Margaret Sanger, Otto Bobsein and others, though by many accounts, she was not entirely agenda free, and supported Eugenics in some form. Pronatalism can be associated with several factors which may include one or more of the following:

Promoting ethnic rivalry

Pronatalism may be used to promote ethnic or regional rivalry. For example, some South Indian states are now increasingly worried that their proportional representation may come down in Indian parliament given the fact that their birth rates are very low in comparison to North Indian states. The solution for this, would of course not to boost birth rates in southern Indian states, but to put pressure on north Indian states which are already reeling from the consequences of high populations to control and restrict their populations. In response or in stark contrast some north Indian states may have wanted to perpetuate their relative clout through the mechanism of Hindi chauvinism.

Nationalism

Pronatalism may be used to promote national identity and foster a sense of national pride. In such as case, governments may fallaciously and erroneously believe that higher populations may increase a nation’s economic, military, and technological clout, hegemony and power. Governments in this case may either make their intentions crystal clear or promote their agendas surreptitiously and clandestinely. It is believed that even governments such as that of Malaysia fell for this trap at one point or the other even though birth rates were relatively high there.

Economic

In such a case, a government might abandon its anti-natalist policies and embrace pronatalist policies in order to boost its work force or its labour force with the mistaken belief that it may automatically and directly boost the economy or yield economic benefits. 

Religion

Many religions may also be considered fundamentally and foundationally pronatalist as they goad their followers to go forth and procreate. Many thinkers also think that Judaism is essentially pronatalist. Similar values are believed to have been carried forward to Islam and other downstream faiths. In Islam, children are considered to be God's blessings and must be nurtured and raised with great care and attention. Some radical Islamic thinkers therefore loathe, or frown upon birth control and family planning. Large families are also supported by many Catholics, some Protestants, and Quiverfulls as well. In spite of all this, fertility rates are decreasing or declining among all communities – this may be ascribed to modernization, and westernization, the two being somewhat different concepts.

Immigration

Pronatalism can be associated with immigration opposition. People want their own ilk and their own flock to grow so that immigration can be avoided. Immigration is also often opposed in many quarters in a nation because it may tilt ethnic composition in favour of immigrants and reduce that native population either in absolute or in relative terms. Concerns about immigration are being raised in many quarters in Europe and the USA, besides some other nations as well. This is believed to alter demographic composition as well as social and cultural values. In Europe, the far-right activist Geert Wilders opposes immigration vehemently and vociferously, and so do some other political parties there. It is feared that immigration will distort the ethnic and religious composition there. Many immigrants also enter the USA illegally mostly via Mexico after crossing the deadly Darien gap, but some also via Canada, and take refuge in sanctuary cities such as New York. 

Maintenance of traditional family structures

Pronatalism is sometimes associated with reinforcing traditional family structures where the husband is responsible for generating the income and the woman is economically dependent on her spouse for her essentials and for her survival. Traditional cultures and traditional societies also sometimes do not agree with the idea of women going out to work. Such cultures may believe that it is the duty of women to procreate and raise children by providing for their needs, and the needs of the rest of the family as well.

Eugenics

Eugenics meaning good genes in Greek, refers to a set of beliefs and practices that aim to improve the genetic quality or the quality of stock of human populations. This doctrine is inherently racist, and presupposes that white individuals are superior to all other humans on earth. The main tool employed by eugenicists is to inhibit the fertility of people and groups that are considered to be inferior, while at the same time, promoting the stocks of humans who are considered to be superior. Therefore, we have different terms such as positive eugenics, which represents the promotion of “good stock,” and negative eugenics, which severely curtains and restricts interbreeding between “defective stock.” Eugenecists may therefore goad select humans to go forth and to multiply. 

Response to low birth rates

Pronatalism has also been promoted in response to declining birth rates in different parts of the world. In the People’s republic of China, the one-child policy was a population and a birth control measure implemented between 1979 and 2015 to curb the country's burgeoning population growth by restricting couples to having only a single child. The program had many social, cultural, economic, and demographic effects which echoed and reverberated throughout society. This program was later gradually withdrawn, and couples are permitted to have as many as three children. Likewise, Russia, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan have also put in place pronatalist measures as the birth rates there are low. This includes maternity leave, child bonuses, child care subsidies, tax rebates, paternity leave, etc. Most of these measures have seldom or scantily worked, and even if they did, the impact or the effect was only temporary. That is why we will always believe and argue that low fertility rates are the new normal and that society and planning policies must be built around them.  Pronatalism is in many ways a dangerous right-wing idea, (Promoted by many capitalists such as Elon Musk, and right-wing Christian fundamentalists who are sometimes hand in glove with one another) and must not be promoted where it does not deserve to be promoted. Most experts would concur with this assertion. While drawbacks of low fertility rates include smaller workforces, and lower economic growth, the benefits of lower fertility rates far outstrip the benefits of higher birth rates.

As usual we need trade offs and consilience, as per the principles of epistemic coherentism.  We prefer to call this movement LOPE because LOPE means an easy natural gait of a horse resembling a canter, or a usually easy bounding gait that is capable of being sustained for a very long period of time. We also need aeternitism, or the ability to think long-term; this is sorely lacking in today’s scholarship, and even in today’s world. At the same time, extreme versions of antinatalism may not be practically involved given that there are economic issues and factors that must be brought into the mix. The word "antinatalism" in its current form and context was first used in 2006, when two books were published that called for the termination of procreation. The books were written by South African philosopher and academic David Benatar and Belgian writer and philosopher Theophile de Giraud. According to Masahiro Morioka, antinatalism is "the thought that all human beings or all sentient beings should not be born." Some famous proponents of antinatalism have included  Djuna Barnes, Samuel Beckett, and Bogomil.  The radical 4B feminist movement of South Korea is also an antinatalist movement. These movements also coincide and elide with movements of child free advocacy, and some other movements. Also refer to Benatar's asymmetry argument in this context. [16] [17]

What we need is a via media approach with fixation of ideal TFR’s, and the usage of terms such as population management. There is a myth of perfectly sustainable development. We have land encroachment, deforestation, plastic usage, fossil fuels usage, use of paper, use of wood etc, and even electric cars have their own environmental footprint. Read our book “Human trusteeship of the planet: Escalating the environmental movement to the next level” published in Google Books 2024. Let populations fall naturally; We are not supporting Paul Ehrlich’s population predictions though. People resort to binary thinking and people think in bits and pieces. We need quality human resources. People with smaller children take care of their families better. Why are we not talking about quality education?  Pronatalists seldom do. Why did we not create a ruckus when India’s population was exploding?  There are solutions to combat low fertility examples of which are silver dividend, gender dividend, outsourcing, off shoring, automation, upskilling, changing economic development models, immigration,  adoption, raising retirement ages and migration. Many countries with low birth rates are doing well while many countries with high birth rates are doing poorly. Again, we need quality human resources. We need to treat low birth rates as the new normal and adapt and adjust

Our wishlist is as follows. This we believe would represent ideal populations into the far future:

2100 AD: 11 billion

2200 AD: 9 billion

2300 AD: 7 billion

2400 AD: 5 billion

2500 AD: 3 billion

3000 AD: 1 billion

We also need to emphasize education and pedagogy. The importance of education and pedagogy must not be discounted at any cost, and under any circumstances. This will be vital for our future as birth rates fall, and as we prepare for our less populated future. This alone will differentiate and distinguish economically successful countries from less successful ones. We need quality human resources. Let us therefore launch a movement for high-quality human resources now.  Read our multiple papers and books on pedagogy and education. We had laid out the contours of better education systems there.

Conclusion

We had begun this paper by reviewing the history of population studies, and explaining in brief, many different concepts allied and aligned with the field of population studies such as total fertility rate, population momentum, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality rate, pronatalism, antinatalism, the theory of demographic dividend, demographic window, demographic winter, etc, and investigating the causes of population growth.  We also then subsequently reviewed the history of human population growth since early times, particularly since the time of the agricultural Neolithic revolution when early reliable estimates had begun to become available, and investigated population growth rates, and trends in population growth in different parts of the world, which lent credence to the theory of a demographically divided world. We also explained why we needed a “Low population for the environment” or a “LOPE” movement, (The term lope means an easily maintainable gait in the English language) and the benefits of low populations we had argued, were indeed many. This was done by reviewing the drawbacks and limitations of the theory of demographic dividend, and the dangers of pronatalism as an unfortunate new trend associated with the far right. We also then integrated this paper appropriately with our earlier concepts such as aeterntism, omnimodism, integrationism, and epistemic cohernetism, in order to explain and show which tradeoffs, prioritization and mutual adjustment were always required. We therefore proposed the need to develop “ideal fertility” rates in different parts of the world, integrate it with developmental studies better, and also proposed terms such as population management as vastly superior concepts to birth control. At the same time, we also argued that we need a renewed thrust on pedagogy and education, and a renewed emphasis on high-quality human resources as opposed to quantity alone. Therefore, copy and paste scholarship is extremely dangerous we argued, and the needs and requirements of different societies and cultures always had to be taken into account with local considerations duly studied. This is also one of the essential prerequisites of our globalization of science movement which must be taken forward to its logical conclusions. In a way, this is essential to the survival of mankind and the human race as well. This is no laughing matter; this is no triviality or a bagatelle. Let us bear this in mind always, and act now, and sooner than later.

 

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[1] Fisher, R. A. (1999). The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection. Oxford University Press (OUP). ISBN 978-0-19-850440-5

[2] Hartl, Daniel (2007). Principles of Population Genetics. Sinauer Associates. p. 95. ISBN 978-0-87893-308-2.

[3] Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei (2001). "The End of World Population Growth" (PDF). Nature. 412 (6846): 543–545

[4] Hartl, Daniel (2007). Principles of Population Genetics. Sinauer Associates. p. 45

[5] Elwell, Frank W. 2001. A commentary on Malthus's 1798 Essay on Population as social theory. Mellon Press

[6] Evans, L.T. 1998. Feeding the ten billion – plants and population growth. Cambridge University Press. Paperback, 247 pages

[7] Klaus Hofmann: Beyond the Principle of Population. Malthus' Essay. In: The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought. Bd. 20 (2013), H. 3, S. 399–425

[8] Michael R. Haines; Richard H. Steckel. A Population History of North America. pp. 163–164

[9] Herbert S. Klein. A Population History of the United States. p. 39.

[10] Greenwood, Jeremy; Seshadri, Ananth (January 2002). "The U.S. Demographic Transition"

[11] Lewis, J. "Biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. Six billion and counting". Scientific American October 2000, pages 30, 32.

[12] Dan Gardner (2010). Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart. p. 230

[13] Carl Haub and Toshiko Kaneda, 2012 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2012)

[14] Jacqueline E. Darroch, Gilda Sedgh, and Haley Ball, Contraceptive Technologies: Responding to Women’s Needs (New York: Guttmacher Institute, 2011)

[15] World Health Organization and UNICEF, Building a Future for Women and Children: The 2012 Report (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2012)

[16] Caldwell, John C.; Bruce K Caldwell; Pat Caldwell; Peter F McDonald; Thomas Schindlmayr (2006). Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht, The Netherlands

[17] Albert Esteve and Ron Lesthaeghe (eds), 2016. Cohabitation and Marriage in the Americas - Geo-historical Legacies and New Trends. Springer Open, Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland, 291p