Population management and the environment: Why we need population management strategies to be much better integrated with environmental movements

 

Introduction

“But man is a part of nature, and his war against nature is inevitably a war against himself”.- Rachel Carlson

“The ultimate test of man's conscience may be his willingness to sacrifice something today for future generations whose words of thanks will not be heard” – Gaylord Nelson

This paper is yet another important one in our long series of papers on population management and particularly on the relationship between the population and the environment. We rightly and earnestly begin this paper by defining what an environment is, and reviewing its basic constituents, by drawing reference to our previously published papers and books. We then provide a very brief introduction and overview to environmental studies, and provide an introduction and overview to environmental anthropology as well, before reviewing the impact humans have had on the environment since time immemorial.  We then review and overview the concepts associated with sustainable development, and the ‘Human trusteeship of the planet” principle. The history of the environmental movement is also traced along with all its pitfalls, inadequacies, and inherent limitations in view of the fact that its orientation is somewhat Eurocentric, and based on European considerations. We also then emphasize the need for sound population management, and lay bare the dangers of pronatalism. The notion or the scenario of a population collapse is also not as alarming or dangerous as it is made out to be, and humans still draw heavily from the earth’s resources. There are also indeed many ways we can deal with lower populations, as we will discuss. Therefore, the environmental movements needs to be at least partially realigned keeping in mind the earth’s limitations and the long-term well-being of mankind.  This paper is as always, tied to all our previous papers and publications, and all of them need together for maximum impact.

What is environment?

Human populations have also had a dramatic and a profound impact on the environment. Every human brought into this earth pumps out hundreds of millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the earth’s atmosphere during his or life time. This is of course variable, and would largely depend on an individual’s own lifestyle. This varies from culture to culture and from context to context. According to Sir David Attenborough, founder of Population Matters, population management is key to environmental sustainability. He even states, “All our environmental problems become easier to solve with fewer people, and harder – and ultimately impossible – to solve with ever more people.” The term demography is believed to have arisen from the Ancient Greek word “demos” meaning “people or society” and “grapho” which means “to write”. Demography refers to the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (for e.g., by ethnicity, age, gender, language, religion, and other dimensions), and how they change over time through the interplay of various factors such fertility (meaning births), mortality (meaning deaths), and inward or outward migrations. Demography is sometimes seen as a field within sociology, though not always, as many concepts are independent in their own right. Thoughts on human population existed in many early civilizations such as Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, China and India. The Han dynasty in Ancient China even maintained population registers, and this practice was carried forward to medieval times. In ancient Greece, for example, writers and thinkers such as Herodotus, Thucydides,  Protagoras, Plato, Hippocrates, Epicurus, Polus, and Aristotle contemplated on population matters as did Cicero, Seneca, Pliny the Elder, Marcus Aurelius, Epictetus, Cato, and Columella later on in Rome. In the Middle Ages in Europe, eminent Christian thinkers revised and rethought many ideas on demography. Notable and eminent thinkers of this era included Bartholomew of Lucca, William of Pagula, William of Conches, William of Auvergne, and Islamic thinkers and writers such as Ibn Khaldun. More recently, Benjamin Franklin, John Graunt, Edmund Halley, Benjamin Gompert, Achille Guillard, Augustus De Morgan and Richard Price also contributed to demographic studies in some way or the other. Thomas Robert Malthus also proved to be an eminent thinker, and some of his doomsday ideas proved to be highly influential in the field of demography and population studies.

In the Nineteenth century, demography morphed into a separate area of interest and distinct field of study away from statistics from which it partially originated. Thinkers from this era included eminent scholars such as William Farr, Louis-Adolphe Bertillon, Richard Bockh, Wilhelm Lexis, Adolphe Quetelet, Joseph Korosi, Anders Nicolas Kaier, and Luigi Bodio.  It is not possible to examine all their theories, contributions and ideas in this book, and the objective of this work is entirely different. We will therefore, briefly only touch upon the main and the crucial ones, and leave it to readers to do their own homework with the rest. Demographic analysis is also carried out by undertaking censuses, as this techniques can provide robust, rock solid and infallible data. A census is a survey that collects detailed or summary information from every person or an entity in a group or population, and this is also known as a complete enumeration. The information gathered may include location, gender, age, characteristics, economic status, and educational attainment.  The word "census" comes from the Latin word “census”, which in turn is derived from the term “censere” meaning "to give as an opinion, assess, appraise, perform the duties of a censor". The first known use of the word "census" occurred in the year 1634. However, of late surveys and sampling surveys are being increasingly conducted, and the results of such surveys are extrapolated onto the entire population.

The world’s population in 10000 BCE was estimated to have been around two million; this increased progressively to around 15 million by 3000 BCE due to the Neolithic revolution and the later emergence of old world civilizations. Some other factors that contributed to the growth of human populations during this period include the domestication of different types of animals, the invention of the wheel, agriculture and storage of grains, the development of new production techniques for metals as a part of the Chalcolithic and Bronze age civilizations, and the invention of writing. However, populations may have been unstable during this period, and may have been ravaged by famine and disease. The world’s population is believed to have further increased to one hundred million at the dawn of the Christian era, though such estimates are notoriously unreliable. While estimates of early population counts are unreliable, early attempts to systematically count population date to the endeavours of William Petty in 1682, and some others. Sometimes, Markov models have also been applied, but these are not fully reliable. Some other estimates put the human population count at 300 million in 1000 AD, and 450 million in 1500 AD. There were periods of constriction or reduction of population such as Great Famine of 1315–1317, Plague of Justinian, and the end of the Black Death in 1350. No large scale worldwide constriction events may have however occurred since the per-historical Toba catastrophe event of some seventy thousand years ago.

There was also a moderate population loss between 200 AD and 400 AD, and the little ice age contributed to population decline between 1300 AD and 1400 AD. Human population growth is attributed to its success as a species, though it may not last for long. Birth rates have been falling over the past two centuries or so, even though death rates have been falling much, much faster. This has naturally led to a population explosion of sorts. A population explosion may be defined as a sudden or a rapid explosion of population, with a large number of unwarranted and unintended negative consequences. The term is widely used today in demographic studies. A population explosion may even be catastrophic, and millions of people may die due to famine or disease. Population explosion or not there is a “General tendency of the population to increase”, and this observation is also one of the foundational pillars of this book. While there may be exceptions, these must be carefully noted in order to draw conclusions there from.

World population milestones in billions (Worldometers estimates)
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1804	1930	1960	1974	1987	1999	2011	2022	2037	2057
200,000+	126	30	14	13	12	12	11	15	20

 

The highest global population growth rates, with average increases of over 2.0% every year, took place between the years 1955 and 1975, peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970. The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century. The Total fertility rates representing the average number of children born per woman, has also declined to 2.3 children per woman in 2024, and may reach replacement rates by the middle of the century. Africa, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa may alone remain a significant outlier to this overall and broad trend. The population may stop growing entirely by the year 2100 after it reaches around ten billion, if proper policies are put in place in different parts of the world. The total number of annually births globally is currently around (for the period between 2015–2020) 140 million per year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040–2045 at around 141 million per year and then decline gradually to 126 million per year by 2100. The total number of deaths is currently around 57 million per year and is projected to grow steadily to around 121 million per year by the year 2100, leading to net zero additions. However, per capita consumption of natural resources may keep on increasing (if not Co2 emissions per capita) and human will continue to threaten the environment, and pose a major threat to biodiversity and other plant and animal species. In the modern age, humans are much better able to take control of their resources and their own destiny like never before in human history. However, the will, the conceptual clarity, and the theoretical foundation must be available. Human populations also generally tend to increase. This is because economic concerns may often take precedence over environmental concerns and considerations with a few minor exceptions. The writing is already on the wall; we need to wake up before it is too late.[1]

Humans have either consciously or unconsciously polluted the planet and the atmosphere since the dawn of human civilization, or even from time immemorial. Contrary to popular perception and popular misconception environmental degradation is not a recent phenomenon, though it has indeed accelerated in recent times. Awareness on environmental issues and environmental considerations too have spiked in fits and starts, though the environmental movement in the modern sense of the term is a more recent phenomenon.

The Neolithic Revolution, which is also sometimes referred to as the “First Agricultural Revolution”, was a period marked by widespread and fundamental change in human culture that began around 10,000 BC in the Fertile Crescent region of the Middle East or the Levant region. The term Neolithic revolution was first used by Vere Gordon Childe in 1920. This revolution marked the transition from hunting, gathering, foraging and pastoralism to organized agriculture and permanent human settlements, thereby leading to a huge ripple and multiplier effect. This also in turn led to the domestication of plants and animals, the development of new and more sophisticated tools such as polished ground axes and ground stone axes, (This period also known as the Neolithic age, is the last period of the stone age, after which we had the Mesolithic and Chalcolithic age marked by the use of metals such as copper) and the establishment of large permanent settlements, indirectly inducing a more sedentary lifestyle.  Needless to say, this also led to deforestation and the destruction and degradation of the environment much more than earlier advances that the invention of fire did. Some agricultural practices such slash and burn agriculture, also known as shifting cultivation or jhum, a traditional farming technique that involves cutting and burning vegetation to clear land for cultivation and the creation of fields called swidden, have particularly caused environmental degradation though it allowed settlers to produce a much greater quantity of food than they could possibly produce through hunting and gathering. This type of agriculture is practiced by some tribal groups in north-east India, where it is variously referred to as jhum, jhoom, or podu.

The Industrial revolution, is often conveniently divided into two industrial revolutions namely, the “First Industrial Revolution” and the subsequent “Second Industrial Revolution”, both of which marked a period of a transition of the world economy towards much more widespread, standardized, efficient and stable manufacturing processes, and a greatly enhanced most people’s standards of living. This revolution originated in England which was its general birth place, but rapidly and quickly spread to other parts of Europe and North America, from around the year 1760 to around 1840, and more or less followed the French revolution in Europe. As a part of this revolution, there was a transition from primitive and inefficient hand production methods towards greater automation and relatively advanced labour saving machinery and techniques. New chemical manufacturing process and iron and steel production processes were also developed during this period, and there was an increasing use of water power and steam power, though electricity had not yet been developed. The steam engine itself had been developed by James Watt, Richard Trevithick, George Stephenson and others, and played a crucial role in the revolution. The development of machine tools was also an important development during this period along with a rise of the mechanized factory system which employed a large number of workers. Early factories were often less than ideal places to work in, with workers performing tedious, mundane and repetitive tasks in inhuman and unsanitary conditions, and their inadequacies led to the rise of revolutionaries such as Karl Marx. [2] [3]

Industrial output however, increased manifold, and there was an unprecedented rise in population as a result, along with migrations to cities and industrial areas.  The success of the British industrial empire was demonstrated and showcased in a fair held in 1851 in the Crystal palace in London. The second industrial revolution, which is sometimes referred to as the technological revolution, was a phase of rapid scientific discovery, standardization, mass production and industrialization which took place from the late nineteenth century into the early twentieth century. New methods to improve the production of steel emerged, and many new inventions came into existence. Electricity, automobiles, telephones, radio, aeroplanes, and electricity also became commonplace and a part of daily life, and automobiles were built on an assembly line since 1914, though the automotive industry itself came into being some fifteen years earlier, producing vehicles on a much smaller scale. The world had been transformed on a scale seen never before and progress was counted in years rather than in centuries, though we were still living in an environmental dark age, because there was very little awareness of environmental issues, and even less environmental responsibility. People took modern civilization for granted, and were yet oblivious of its shortcomings and its drawbacks. This was the general and the unfortunate state of affairs until the 1990’s, when the environmental movement took off in a big way. In some cases which were not entirely isolated, man’s dominance of nature and the environment was itself seen as a big triumph. [4] [5] [6] [7]

We will now attempt to provide a very brief introduction to the earth sciences. This is an essential and a vital part of this paper, though by no means the most important, and is somewhat peripheral to it. Therefore, those who want a more specialized treatise on various fields and subfields of earth sciences may read other more specialized literature on the subject which is readily available on the internet and elsewhere. Earth sciences or geosciences include many different fields of natural science allied and related to the maintenance and the sustenance of planet Earth, and a study of the forces that shaped and continued to shape earth, but usually exclude a formal study of its life forms with the exception of the field of geobiology. This field began with the works of Greek thinkers such as Erastosthenes and Strabo, but assumed added significance and added importance when young earth theories were discarded. Later thinkers also developed fundamental principles of geology such as the principle of horizontality and the principle of superposition. Other contributors to geology included Abraham Gottlob Werner, James Hutton, and Charles Lyell. The field of Geology  broadly studies the Earth's structure, substance, and processes, and includes a study of the lithosphere, or the solid rocky layer constituting the Earth's surface, including the crust such as the continental crust and oceanic crust, the earth’s mantle, the earth’s core and various types of rocks such as igneous, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks.  The scope of the field of Geology is fairly vast and incorporates and includes aspects of chemistry, physics, and biology as well and the intersection and interdisciplinarity of various fields of study. 

Geology comprises many specialized fields of study too. For example, the subfield of Geochemistry studies various chemical processes and components forming part of the planet Earth including for example, a study of faults and plate tectonics among other things. Geophysics on the other hand, studies and investigates various physical properties of the planet Earth while Paleontology which also interfaces with Anthropology, studies diverse buried fossilized material present beneath the earth’s surface. The relatively new field of Geomorphology investigates the origin of landscapes, and the changes that may occur to such landscapes over time. The field of Environmental geology studies how human and non-human induced pollution and contaminants may affect soil and rock. Hydrology, which includes hydro ecology and other fields is the study of the hydrosphere and the movement of water on, and beneath the Earth’s surface  including patterns of human use of water bodies and water supplies. Oceanology is another subfield which deals with the study of oceans, while glaciology studies glaciers. Mineralogy refers to the field that studies various aspects of minerals including the study of mineral formation, and the physical and chemical properties of minerals. We have included only a small number of subfields here; of course, there could be many more. [8]

Overview of Ecology

Ecology is the formal and the systematized study of the earth’s biosphere. The term was coined and first used in the year 1866 by the German scientist Ernst Haeckel, though it was derived from the Greek term “Oikos”, meaning habitat. The science of ecology as we know it today however originated with a group of American botanists working in the 1890s.This field also fundamentally includes the study of various forces of nature and of how living things interact with various elements and components of the Earth such as nutrients and water resources, and the consequences of such an interaction including use and depletion of the earth’s natural resources. Therefore,  the relationships and dynamic interaction among living organisms, including humans, and their physical environment, are studied in ecology with studies performed and executed at individual, community, population, ecosystem and biosphere levels.  The field of ecology assumes added importance because individuals have the capacity and the capability to shape and regulate the environment, and even save or prevent it from potential destruction. Ecology includes various subfields such as productive ecology, population ecology, community ecology, radiation ecology, pollution ecology, microbial ecology, ecosystem ecology, and space ecology, though a discussion of these would fall outside the scope of this paper. [9] [10]

The biosphere, which is also often referred to as the ecosphere, represents the sum total of all the ecosystems on Earth and on which any form of life exists. Earth is unique and special and is often referred to as the sphere of life. This does not of course discount the possibility that life exists elsewhere in the universe, because there may be trillions of planets in the observable universe, if not more. However, the Drake equation must be applied, and the possibility of existence of intelligent life forms may be small. The biosphere is generally considered to be closed, and self-regulating. It has however evolved gradually over millions of years, and the atmosphere today is different from that of the Hadean or the Archean eon, when atmospheric carbon dioxide was high, and surface temperature were much higher than at present. It has been around for hundreds of millions of years, at the very least, if not possibly more.  The biosphere includes all forms of life on the planet, including human beings, and all forms of living organic matter as well. It also comprises all forms of life in the geosphere or the lithosphere, hydrosphere which represents the water mass, and the atmosphere. The biosphere extends from the depths of the oceans over ten kilometers deep to the highest mountain ranges, and includes everything from tiny, unobservable bacteria and blue green algae to large creatures such as whales. Some life forms can exist in extreme temperatures and conditions, and life forms have even been found in deep sea volcanic vents. However, there may be a tipping point, and unregulated human activity may damage the biosphere irreparably.

The tree of life began to be formed because early cyanobacteria had photosynthesizing ability i.e. the ability to convert light energy into chemical energy, and gave out oxygen which was inhaled by other living beings. Thus, a complex variety of different life forms began to exist. A food chain represents a sequence of organisms in which nutrients and energy are transferred from one living organism to another living organism through the process of food intake and consumption. Therefore, all living beings depend on each other for survival, and all life forms are intertwined and interlinked. A food web is a much more complex network of food chains that depicts how different food chains interact in a complex ecosystem.  There are many related concepts such as that of an apex predator which represents a being that sits on top of the food chain. We also then have dry lands which are characterized by the lack of availability of water, and only transpiration and evaporation take place. Wetlands are areas where the soil is covered with water throughout the year, or for most part of the year. Wetlands support different forms of aquatic species which also may vary based on climatic and  soil conditions. Wetlands also include marshes, swamps, bogs, fens, and riparian ecosystems. the biosphere comprises of three basic components. These three components are the abiotic (comprising physical and inorganic) components which is other words is non-living matter; secondly, biotic (or organic) components which represents living matter comprising plants, animals and microorganisms, and thirdly, energy components comprising of mineral nutrients and water. We also then have the concept of a habitat which is a natural environment where an organism lives and grows. We also then have the concept of an ecological niche; this is the role an organism plays in the larger and grander scheme of things, including its interaction patterns with other species.

Introduction to Environmental studies

The field of Environmental studies refers to, or is taken to mean, a multidisciplinary or even a transdisciplinary academic field which systematically studies and investigates all processes pertaining to, and related to human interaction with the environment. This is done using holistic approaches, and keeping in mind long-term perspectives. This field is sometimes referred to as environmentalism, or less commonly, ecologism. The rapidly growing and diversifying field environmental studies collates principles and concepts from diverse fields such as the physical sciences, economics, various fields and subfields of the humanities and the social sciences to address a diverse set of complex contemporary environmental issues. The latter may includes fields such as law, social justice, pollution control, political science, natural resource management, etc. It is a broad field of study that includes the natural environment, the man made environment, and the relationship between the two including a formal study and investigation between man, and other forms of plant and animal life. This is necessary to maintain a healthy and a harmonious balance between different forms of live and the natural environment. As cosy as this may sound, there have been critics of environmentalism. Such critics accuse climate change advocates of alarmism, and projecting exaggerated versions of manmade climate change.  This is sometimes referred to as green washing.

Introduction to environmental anthropology

Humans have naturally interacted with their immediate environment since time immemorial. Humans were subsequently possessed by wanderlust, and travelled to other shores trading with their immediate and distant neighbours in the process. Anthropology, particularly the component of which specialized in bio-cultural study of humans, studied such interactions formally right from its inception. The interaction between humans and their environment is also studied by ecological anthropologists. Studies included a study of social, political, economic and cultural factors as well, all of which were examined critically in a holistic fashion. This observation holds good partly for ancient Greek thinkers as well, though the discipline has developed in leaps and bounds since then. For example, we have had the idea of Environmental determinism in the recent past as opposed to cultural determinism, which states that the physical environment, such as climate and terrain, impacts human activities and outcomes significantly and substantially, thereby determining social and economic development as well. This concept is said to have originated with the ideas of Greek thinkers Hippocrates and Aristotle and was dominant in Western academia some one hundred and odd years ago.  The idea of environmental determinism in its strict and canonical form is obsolete; however, contemporary environmental anthropologists study and explore how humans adjust and adapt to their natural environment. A revival of such theories has also been attempted by  Jared Diamond, Jeffrey Herbst, Ian Morris, and other social scientists in the recent past. Environmental anthropology is now a vital sub-branch of socio-cultural anthropology, and focuses on basic scientific and academic research on the relationship between people and their environment. The role of culture in this relationship is also explored, among a wide variety of other factors. Many other fields such as primate ecology, human ethnoecology (proposed and pioneered by Brent Berlin, Charles Frake, Harold Conklin, and others), evolutionary ecology, historical ecology, ecofeminism, environmental justice, political ecology, traditional ecological knowledge, and environmental conservation, have also been proposed, and most of them are interdisciplinary. More recently, the ecosystems approach, cultural materialism, and processual human ecology have also been developed.

A more reasonable stand is environmental possiblism. Environmental possibilism is the position that while the environment influences human culture, human initiative, creativity, and various other aspects such as technology also play a role in shaping a culture in relation to its environment. The idea of “cultural ecology” was developed by the American anthropologist Julian Steward in the 1950’s who is also associated with neo-evolution, and was influenced by Carl Sauer.  Cultural ecology is a field that formally studies human adaptations to social and physical environments. Human adaptation may refer to both biological and cultural processes that allow a population to survive, thrive and prosper within a given environment.. This kind of a analysis may either be carried out diachronically (by examining entities across different epochs), or synchronically (examining a present system and its components). We had discussed the twin ideas of diachronic and synchronic analysis in our different paper. We also have other fields in environmental anthropology such as political ecology (This field examines how economic structures and power relations drive environmental change), ethnoecology (this field studies how people in different cultures understand and relate to the world around them) and behavioral ecology (This is a study of how humans and other living beings behave and make decisions to adapt and be successful in the world around them). These fields are however, relatively much less important. Leslie A White also spoke of the age of high mass consumption in spite of being an anthropologist. This suggests that anthropology and environmental studies did not coevolve, and are still in many ways, on divergent and separate paths. During the cultural revolution in China, the environment was not given a tinker’s dam as trees were cut for use as fuel in foundries that produced shoddy, low-quality steel. However, a respect for the environment has accelerated greatly in recent times in the region, as new concepts such as permaculture have taken root.

Human caused pollution

Human caused pollution is caused by a wide range of human activities such as agriculture, transportation and industry. The impact and the effect of man on the environment is known as the environmental or ecological footprint. An environmental footprint refers to a formal and a quantitative measurement of the different types of natural resources humans consume and how much non-recyclable waste they produce, compared to the Earth's ability to regenerate those resources and absorb that waste. It's a key measure and yardstick of the impact human activities have on the planet. Agriculture encompasses a wide range of activities that include for example, crop and livestock production, irrigation, fisheries, aquaculture, domestication of animals, horticulture, and forestry for both food and non-food products. Agriculture is the backbone of many different economies all over the world, and as was discussed, originated during the Neolithic revolution some ten thousand years ago. Some crops are extremely land intensive, and some others such as paddy are extremely water intensive. In sum, agriculture has a fairly large environmental footprint, and is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions and destruction of the environment including deforestation. Some decades ago, there was a talk of using scarce land for biodiesel production through the cultivation of jatropha, but this would have been environmentally highly destructive. This concept largely failed on a commercial scale as there were too many logistical imponderables and challenges involved. Sustainable agriculture is a fairly new concept, and has matured and come of age only recently. Sustainable agriculture involves farming and agriculture in sustainable ways that helps meet humanity’s present needs, without in any way compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs and requirements. Sustainable agriculture is often achieved and accomplished through the use of many new methods and techniques, and best practices are only now being gradually developed in this regard. We still have a long way to go, though there is a faint glimmer and beacon of hope. It is hoped fervently that this paper will go some way in encouraging the introduction of new theoretical concepts. New concepts such as agroforestry, mixed farming, permaculture, drip irrigation for precision agriculture, organic farming through the use of compost and green manure, multiple cropping, and crop rotation have also been developed, and new technologies such as vertical farming, the use of drones, and solar powered fields have also been developed. [11]

Organic farming can be defined as an agricultural process that uses biological fertilizers, pesticides and insecticides derived from animal or plant waste such as compost manure, green manure instead of synthetic and chemical fertilizers. Organic farming has taken off in a big way in Sikkim, though it had failed in Sri Lanka due to a hurried implementation and a sudden transition there. Water conservation techniques are also being increasingly adopted by farmers, in a process that is often driven by selfish interests. This includes techniques such as rainwater harvesting and ground water management techniques too. The slogan more crop per drop was introduced and popularized by the then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.  This catch phrase implies that water is the natural constraint for farming, particularly fresh water supplies.  Consequently, some Indian states such as Haryana are driving the transition to more environmentally friendly crops. Permaculture is another new approach to land management that adopts whole-system principles derived from natural ecosystems and includes a harmonious integration of many subcomponents in a way that is only found in nature. The term was coined in 1978 by Bill Mollison and David Holmgren, who formulated the concept in opposition to modern industrialized methods, instead adopting a more traditional or "natural" approach to agriculture. Organizations such as the PAANI foundation are actively involved in water conservation in Western India.  There are also major afforestation initiatives under way in states such as Telangana and Tamil Nadu. These are being organized by both governments and private initiatives, and the pace is now quickening. Some of these are farmer-driven social forestry projects. Solar energy, wind energy, and to a lesser extent, tidal energy are also gaining traction. They are growing much faster than any one, the IPCC included had predicted in the early 2000’s, and costs are falling much more rapidly than expected.

Sustainable transportation may eventually materialize as electric batteries improve, and become cheaper as well in the process. Meat production and meat consumption (particularly production of red meat) are also large contributors to green house gases, more that agriculture itself. One solution to this problem is the adoption of vegetarianism, or even veganism. This may not however, catch on for cultural reasons. One alternative solution is to developed plant-based meat substitutes. This is slowly catching on in Europe and in the USA with several private firms offering attractive products, but may never become mainstream. Humans also lead to species endangerment and extinction, and this is caused by overhunting or over harvesting, introduction of non-native species, and habitat degradation or loss. Hunting also causes extinction or near-extinction as evidenced by the Dodo and the American Bison. [12] [13]

Pollution caused by industry is also a major contributor to global warming. Pollution has been defined variously by the US Environmental Protection Agency and by the United Nations. Industrial pollution is said to take place when factories, mines and transportation release greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and other toxic flue gases into the atmosphere. These may be classified into point-source emissions and non-points source emissions based on the point of generation of atmospheric pollution. Often, major polluting industries are located close to cities, and consequently countries like India have among the most polluted cities in the world. Industrial pollution is detrimental to human health, and may also cause lung and respiratory problems and diseases besides other airborne diseases. It can also cause premature death. Some countries such as China are combating polluting through legislation, but we are in the nascent stages yet. Industries often dump pollutants into lakes and rivers, endangering marine ecosystems and marine life in the process. Plastics and polymers are also non biodegradable and cause irreparable damage to ecosystems. There is a new concept of bioplastics which is the production of plastic from renewable biomass resources, but this has yet to take off on a large scale. Bioplastics do not have a zero environmental footprint either. Nuclear power is also dangerous in its own way, and has caused deaths from radiation. Transportation releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and it is only in the recent past that internal combustion engines have become relatively more environmentally friendly, driven by legislation and pollution standards and norms. There are also limits as to how far IC engines can be developed, but even electric vehicles come at an environmental cost. Among the most polluting industries in the world include lead and acid battery recycling, mining and extractive metallurgy, artisanal mining, dyeing, tanning, chemical manufacturing, and lead smelting. Many of these are legacy industries, but cannot be eliminated completely. [14] [15]

An apex predator, which is also sometimes known as a top predator or a super predator, is a predator which rests at the top of a food chain, without any other natural predators of its own. This concept is most commonly used in wildlife management, conservation, and ecotourism, though it is increasingly being used in environmental studies as well. Man is a omnivore; he is not strictly a carnivore. However, he has knowledge caused the extinction of other species and life forms on earth, and it is for this reason he is sometimes considered to be an apex predator, at least in environmental studies. The diversity of life on Earth, also known as biodiversity, represents the sum total of the variety of all living things on earth, including their genes, species, and ecosystems. Biodiversity is important for many reasons, including the fact that biodiversity provides us with the food, fuel, shelter, medicine, and other resources we need to survive. Diversity also represents a cultural value, and all living things have the right to exist. Diversity is often categorized into species diversity, genetic diversity, and ecosystem diversity: The variety of ecosystems on Earth. Scientists estimate that there are around thirty million different species on Earth, but less than two million have been identified so far including 1.4 million animals and 0.4 million plants. The Anthropocene as it is understood in ecological studies is a period of mass extinction caused by human activities that are rapidly threatening to destroy the environment. Species are disappearing at a rate that is unparalleled in the history of the earth. This is primarily due to pollution and environmental degradation, and types of extinctions currently observed include mass and terminal extinctions. This is not non-reversible. We must wake up to this reality before it is too late.

There is a deep-rooted and an underlying inter-connection between ecosystems and biodiversity that must be carefully understood by experts and the layman given that the two concepts go hand in hand fundamentally and foundationally with each other. Ecosystems comprise different types of living beings interacting tightly and closely with one another and their surroundings for their food and other day to day needs and requirements. Along with this, a desire to preserve and maintain biodiversity also importantly lays the groundwork for the scientific study of ecosystems by defining the kinds of species that can coexist in an environment, as well as their interactions with and interdependencies on other species. Humans must try to arrest the alarming decline of biodiversity on earth, plant and animal species included. Humans must also buck up, and must practice sustainable techniques if they wish to survive, and let other species survive as well. These may include sustainable agriculture, irrigation systems, livestock, poultry and dairy practices, reductions in human-generated consumption and waste, more environmentally responsible industry, net zero carbon dioxide emissions etc. This slowly happening, though much more slowly than is ideally desirable – there will be obvious limits on the pace of transformative change as well. Like it or not, humans will continue to impact the environment always, and mostly so. Climate change is a matter of serious concern; for example, in November the air quality index in New Delhi crossed 1500, putting the lives of millions at great risk. Many thinkers such as the Indian environmentalist Ramachandra Guha (He also reviewed the global history of environmentalism) lament the fact that very little is being done about the environment in India, and that a lot more action needs to be done before it is too late.

What is sustainable development?

Sustainable development is a concept that aims to meet the needs of the current generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs and requirements, and involves carrying on economic development without depletion of natural resources so that they remain available for long durations of time, including future generations as well. Sustainable development involves balancing three key elements, namely economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. Sustainable development also involves achieving planetary integrity, and balancing the needs of the economy, environment, and social well-being of all residents on the planet, not only those belonging to one country or region. Sustainable development is typically facilitated through five guiding principles, i.e. living within environmental limits, ensuring a strong, healthy, equitable and just society, achieving a sustainable economy, promoting good governance and utilizing information communication technology as a social responsibility. The noteworthy Brundtland Report published in October 1987 helped to make the concept of sustainable development more widely known and disseminated among the general and the wider populace with wide reaching consequences for the environmental movement. The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro also widely disseminated the concept of sustainable development, and made it popular among the educated public.

In 2015 the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Sustainable Development Goals till the year 2030. These development goals address the global challenges, including for example poverty, climate change, biodiversity loss, and peace. Sustainable development is built upon the principle of sustainability, and this involves the ability to sustain or maintain a process continuously over time. Sustainability involves social, environmental and economic components, and all the three go hand in hand with each other. The United Nations General Assembly approved Agenda 2030 in 2015, which is a commitment to achieve sustainable development by 2030. Six interdependent and interrelated capacities are considered to be necessary for the pursuit of sustainable development goals. These are the capacities to measure progress towards sustainable development; promote equity within and between generations; adapt to shocks and surprises; transform the system onto more sustainable development pathways; link knowledge with action for sustainability; and to devise governance arrangements that allow people to work together.

Development must also be aligned to the seventeen SDG's or sustainable development goals. These are based on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations members in 2015, The seventeen adopted  SDGs are: No poverty (SDG 1), Zero hunger (SDG 2), Good health and well-being (SDG 3), Quality education (SDG 4), Gender equality (SDG 5), Clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), Affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), Decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), Industry, innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), Reduced inequalities (SDG 10), Sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11), Responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), Climate action (SDG 13), Life below water (SDG 14), Life on land (SDG 15), Peace, justice, and strong institutions (SDG 16), and Partnerships for the goals (SDG 17). Some key aspects of sustainable development include environmental sustainability, through environmental technological innovation is one way to achieve environmental sustainability, social development driven by investment in education, health, and employment, clean water and sanitation, sustainable agriculture through sustainable agricultural practices such as organic farming and better water and resource management. UNESCO also makes a distinction between sustainable development and sustainability as follows: "Sustainability is often thought of as a long-term goal (i.e. a more sustainable world), while sustainable development refers to the many processes and pathways to achieve it." The very idea of sustainable development has sometimes been called into question. Many experts believe that sustainable development can never be achieved, and that humanity is doomed to extinction, while some other experts believe that sustainable development is attainable through better technological progress. The World Commission on Environment and Development, published a book called “Our Common Future” in 1987 which also stressed the importance of technology in solving global problems. Sustainability requires decisions to be made at the global, national, organizational, and individual levels, and can guide decision making as well.

Sustainable development has its roots in ideas pertaining to sustainable forest management and declining forest reserves, which were developed in Europe during the course of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. The English writer, landowner, gardener, courtier and minor government official and diarist John Evelyn for example, argued, in his 1662 essay “Sylva”, as follows: "sowing and planting of trees must be regarded as a national duty of every landowner, in order to stop the destructive over- exploitation of natural resources." He also was involved with the Royal Society of England and maintained extensive memoirs. In 1713, Hans Carl von Carlowitz, a senior mining administrator in the service of Elector Frederick Augustus I of Saxony published a four hundred-page work called “Sylvicultura economics”, on forestry. The French minister Jean-Baptiste Colbert, von Carlowitz later developed the concept of managing forests for sustained yield.

Efforts by German geographer and naturalist Alexander von Humboldt and German forester Georg led to the founding of the formal scientific science of forestry. Gifford Pinchot, as the first head of the US Forest Service, proposed an approach to forest management that was driven by the idea of wise use of resources, and Aldo Leopold whose land ethic was influential in the early development of the contemporary environmental movement in the 1960s. After the publication of Rachel Carson's “Silent Spring” in 1962, the environmental movement increased by leaps and bounds and drew attention to the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation as well. It also eventually managed to capture public attention, and the environment was soon a term that was on everyone’s lips. The American economist and educator
Kenneth E. Boulding, in his 1966 essay, “The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth”, wrote about the need for economic systems to be made subservient to environmental needs and considerations. A 1968 article by the American ecologist Garrett Hardin popularized the term "tragedy of the commons", to depict a situation when common resources are degraded when used for personal gain, and private benefit, and proved to be highly influential.

"Strategy of Progress", a 1972 German book authored by the Swiss national and sustainability pioneer Ernst Basler, explained the importance of the proper utilization of forest resources on sustainable development practice. In the 1970’s, the interrelationship of environment and development was explored in a report that was titled “Limits to Growth” published by the Club of Rome and was authored by Dennis and Donella Meadows of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The 1970’s also saw the publication of the influential book, “A Blueprint for Survival” by Edward Goldsmith and Robert Allen. This book was highly influential and sold close to a million copies eventually. It was also signed by third leading ecologists of the day. The environmentalists Rajendra Pachauri (the former chainman of the intergovernmental panel on climate change) and Al Gore also greatly contributed to the cause, and were eventually awarded the Nobel Prize for it. In 2008, the 'Lighting a Billion Lives' was also launched to promote environmentally friendly lighting among the urban and rural poor. Many solar mamas have been trained in solar installations, and have been electrifying villages in nearly one hundred countries. Later, in 2019, the largest, and most comprehensive study of biodiversity and ecosystem services was published by the “Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services”. As such, the tempo of the environmental movement is rapidly increasing, and younger generations appear to be taking it a lot more seriously. There is now a need to take the movement to the next level, and adopt a more all-encompassing and comprehensive approach; hence, this book. We must also bear in mind the fact that while per capita carbon dioxide emissions are relatively low in developing countries, they are likely to rise rapidly as they industrialize and increasingly adopt the lifestyles of developing counties. [16] [17] [18]

Human trusteeship of the planet principle

We also now review Mahatma Gandhi’s trusteeship principle, an idea that we do not wholeheartedly endorse. We also admit that this idea is not entire practical, and suffers several lacunae, drawbacks and deficiencies. Gandhi's theory of trusteeship is an idea that wealthy people should consider themselves lucky as they were blessed by God, and manage their property and their wealth manage as “trustees” on behalf of the poor. In other words, this theory endorses and legitimates the positions of the wealthy (including capitalists and landlords) in society, as long as they acted as “trustees” on behalf of the poor, the needy, and the destitute. This approach is purely voluntary, and not obligatory or binding on behalf of the rich. However, the rich could at times be persuaded to part with their wealth. Gandhi’s ideas on this matter were first developed between 1888 and 1891 based on John Ruskin’s economic ideas. A draft explaining the tenets of Gandhi’s principle formula was put down in writing by two of Gandhi’s co-workers, namely Narhari Parikh and Kishorelal Mashruwala. It was later refined and fine-tuned by M.L. Dantwala. It is also said that JRD Tata was greatly inspired and influenced by Gandhi’s trusteeship principle.

Our approach draws some inspiration from Gandhi’s trusteeship principle, and is only at best, indirectly related to it. There must be no plans for the colonization of planet Mars, other planets at present. Let us put such plans on the backburner for the time being, and defer them for posterity. Let us put our own house in order first. Man has an intellect and is a superior intellect. He must use his intellect for common good. It is only man who will stand to benefit in the long-run. As an extension of this principle, man must also act as a custodian of other species, and as their guardian, steward, and caretaker based on the principle of a win-win paradigm. [19]

Key components and principles of the “Human trusteeship of the planet” concept

The following are therefore, the core and the key components and principles of the “Human trusteeship of the planet” concept

1.       This must be instituted as a core component in general and environmental anthropology as it will be a harbinger of meaningful action and change. This may take ages and aeons to accomplish, but it must set the general direction and the general agenda for change. We must not lose hope at any cost and under any circumstances, and must not give up midway through. All future paradigms and future thought must be anchored on this basic and foundational principle. This is like an environmental management plan, and an environmental resource management plan, but operates more at a global level, and on a much longer horizon.  

2.       Humans must combat anthropogenic environmental degradation and stop anthropogenic climate change. This can be done by acquiescing the fact that humans are the key drivers and the key architects of global warning.   We have raw and hard data to evidence this. For example, the ozone layer has been depleted, and ozone holes formed. A significant and a steady reduction in the consumption of ozone-depleting substances has however been already achieved globally since the mid-1980’s driven in large part by the 1987 United Nations Environment Programme’s Montreal Protocol.

3.       Humans must pursue sustainable development: Sustainable development is not a distant pipe dream; it is already a reality, and is knocking on our door.  Sustainable development is a form of development that is conducted without a depletion of natural resources. A formal definition of Sustainable development is that sustainable development is an approach to economic growth and human development that aims to fulfill and satisfy the wants and the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. We have already transcended the first barrier because enormous progress has been made in generating widespread environmental awareness of the issue of global warming among the general public and the common man.

4.       Humans must protect biodiversity: Biodiversity is the variety, diversity and variability found within different forms of life on Earth. It can be measured though the use and adoption of measures such as species diversity, genetic variability, ecosystem diversity and phylogenetic diversity. Diversity is not naturally distributed evenly on Earth, and some ecosystems and habitats have a greater diversity than some other do.

5.       Humans must protect ecosystems and habitats of species: An ecosystem is a biological community of organisms as they interact with their physical environment. This definition is drawn from the standard definition of an ecosystem which is a complex network of interconnected parts. A habitat in this case is the natural home of a plant, animal or any other species or organism.

6.       Progress in climate change mitigation must not based on CO2 emissions alone: a more holistic approach is required, and we have discussed other unhealthy ramifications of human driven climate change in this paper. We would therefore look forward to more meaningful contributions and research papers by other researchers on this issue, as this issue is far from easy, simple or straightforward, and it has a lot more going to it than meets the eye. Humans damage the environment in more ways than one. 

7.       This is where anthropologists must pitch in and set the agenda. Anthropologists are uniquely poised to understand issues from a long-term perspective and from a transdisciplinary perspective given the fact that anthropology is by itself a very transdisciplinary science, and interfaces deeply and fundamentally with a whole gamut of other related sciences. Anthropologists must also collaborate with technology experts and other domain experts as necessary in order to fulfill their long-term perspective. Transnational collaboration is also of extreme importance, but we have already made a great deal of progress on this score, as most nations and governments all over the world have already been bought in on this issue.  

8.       Population management is necessary: Population management is a term that we propose. The importance and the role of population management in fighting global warming must not be discounted or played down at any cost, or under any circumstances. We have devoted and dedicated an entire section of this paper to the idea of population management.  

9.       If possible all action must lead us to a better earth. An eventual reversion to pre-industrial and pre-human levels must be attempted, and we can of course set much more ambitious goals too. This is by no means easy, but we must now take baby steps in this regard, and set the ball rolling.  

10.   This is a purely long term approach – may take several decades to achieve. This concept is tied to our concept of aeternitism, and to a lesser extent, to the idea of omnimodism. A long-term vision is an utmost necessity and a pre-requisite for planning and for progress, but is a quality that few people have, and most people lack. One is reminded of China’s long-term approach to issues including climate change, and the support provided by its government to the nascent and the budding electric car industry. This is just a stray and an isolated example; China does this all the time. The concepts tied to aeternitism must be inculcated by sheer force and dint of habit, and this is an exercise that must be attempted seriously and inculcated in others as well as a part of the process.   

11.   This must translate into action, even if the formulation of action plans are fraught with challenges and complications: We therefore, need a new generation of ecowarriors to fight our battles. The term eco-warrior is a handy moniker for an environmental activist who adopts a "hands-on" effort to fight for environmental causes. For example, we had the Swedish activist Greta Thurberg, who pressurized and convinced many world leaders to take the issue of global warming seriously. Even if their technical contributions are limited, ecowarriors play a crucial role in escalating general awareness on issues. Readers may also read our paper on science activism for greater clarity.

12.   There are many potential and hidden benefits of this approach. For one, it will enable a holistic and a variegated approach; it will also enable a long-term approach, and a more proactive approach. It will make humans more environmentally aware and more environmentally conscious, and will be the springboard for further research and for further meaningful action. For starters, we look forward to more research being carried out in the field of environmental science. It is early days yet, and we have a long way to go.

As a part of any analysis, a lifestyle analysis must also be naturally performed. Crudely explained, a lifestyle is someone's way of living; the things that a person or particular group of people usually do, throughout their lifecycle and as a part and parcel of their daily lives. We argue that a lifestyle analysis must be formally and systematically performed and reviewed, and we had first mooted the concept in our paper on anthropological economics. This was in an economic context, but it can be suitably extended for other purposes as well. The only constraint we see is that lifestyles are not constant, but changing. Therefore, analyses may need to be performed and executed at sporadic or irregular intervals. For example, A man gets up a 5 o clock in the morning. Throughout the day, he interacts with resources. He uses water early in the morning for his daily ablutions, and goes to the shop to buy items for breakfast. These may form a set pattern, and patterns can be aggregated if many individuals are studied. If Item A is not available, item B is purchased, and this represents an alternative. This approach can be made to work through intent observation or self-declaration. He also interacts with assets throughout the day, and these may be his owned assets, assets on loan, or third-party assets. This study may be repeated for socio-cultural classes, socio-economic classes, and this exercise may even be used to define socio-cultural classes and socio-economic classes. While carrying out this exercise, points of difference between various socio-cultural classes and socio-economic classes must be carefully observed and noted. There are many other tools and techniques that can be proposed and formulated, but we leave this to the discretion and imagination of other researchers.

History of the environmental movement

The environmental movement is a prominent social, cultural and environmental movement whose core aim and objective is to protect the planet and other life forms on it (including indeed mankind itself) from man-led or anthropogenic climate change and environmental degradation in order to create a sustainable way of life, as opposed to mindless economic growth and environmental degradation. The latter represents an obsolete and an outdated view when a smokestack was a symbol of a healthy economy. Individuals who care for the environment are known as environmentalists and such individuals advocate the management of natural resources with long-term objectives in mind. Environmentalism is a broad political and social philosophy that advocates the care of the environment, or in some cases places environmental issues above everything else. Stewardship of the environment through suitable changes in public policy and consumption patterns is also recommended by environmentalists, along with greater global collaboration among nations. Many individuals, for-profit and non-profit organizations, specialized professionals, politicians, scientists, have become dedicated and committed environmentalists and the movement is growing by leaps and bounds and getting stronger by the day. Environmentalists advocate sustainable development which is an approach to economic growth and human development that “aims to meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own social, cultural and economic needs, or to preserve their own standards of living”.  This definition is from Our Common Future, also known as the Brundtland Report. This is no longer even a pipe dream; it is rapidly becoming a reality, and many from the present generation may even live to see it.

Some environmental activism can be traced to the nineteenth century; The Alkali acts were passed in 1863 to combat pollution caused by soda ash production. In 1865, the commons preservation society sought to protect rural areas from the ravages of industrialization. Two individuals by name Robert Hunter, and John Ruskin blocked construction of railways in unspoilt rural regions. In the 1870’s, the amenity movement in Britain was a reaction to worsening air and water pollution, besides environmental degradation. In 1893 Hill, Hunter and Rawnsley set up a national body to coordinate environmental conservation efforts across England, Wales and Northern Ireland; the resultant "National Trust for Places of Historic Interest or Natural Beauty" was launched in 1894. Over the years, back to nature movements we launched by individuals such as John Ruskin, William Morris, and Edward Carpenter. These were inspired in part by romantic ideals. In the late nineteenth century, individuals such as John Muir and Henry David Thoreau launched similar movements in the USA. In the USA, attempts were also made to save the Bison from extinction, and national parks were launched on a large scale. The “Great Smog of London” choked the city of London for five days, from December 5 to December 9, in 1952, and resulted in thousands of deaths. This was primarily caused by industrial pollution and high-pressure weather conditions which prevented smoke from dissipating. The smoke and fog brought London to a near standstill and resulted in thousands of deaths. This event also sparked a greater interest in environmentalism in the UK.

The idea of sustainable development is a holistic, long-term and a comprehensive approach to development which seeks to advance the interests of large sections of the population, and was first popularized by the the Brundtland Report (“Our common future” report) released by the World Commission on Environment and Development in 1987, and the Rio earth summit at Rio de Janerio in 1992. The latter is also known as the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development.  United Nations climate change conferences are also held in different parts of the world with unfailing regularity, and all these advance the goals of various climate change mitigation missions and measures. These approaches are however, loosely based on earlier and simpler concepts that emanated in Europe and elsewhere in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries such as afforestation and water management programs. Examples of non-sustainable development and the rapid deforestation of the Amazon rain forest, and the melting of the Himalayan glaciers to the north of India. Rapid population growth is also at odds with sustainable development, just as resource-intensive developmental models are. Another pillar of this approach and concept is the “tragedy of common” problem. In 1968, the ecologist and philosopher Garret Harding wrote the essay, “The tragedy of the Commons”, according to which he stated that if individuals pursued their own goals and interests selfishly and recklessly, they would eventually act against community interests, or the interests of the common good. This is based on the analogy of drawing water from a common source to suit one’s own requirements.

Systematic and structured environmental studies began as early as the late 19th century, particularly in Britain as a reaction to rapid industrialization, emergence of great factories, movement of populations to cities, and worsening air and water pollution. Under increasing pressure from the populace, the first environmental laws were enacted in the form of Britain's Alkali Acts, which we had discussed previously in this book. These were intended to regulate the worsening air pollution caused by rapid industrialization and its effects on human health.  There were mini environmental movements in India too, and some date all the way back to the British era; afforestation movements were also subsequently initiated there in due course. We had the Chipko movement in India as well as the Narmada Bachao Andolan. James Ranald Martin, Alexander Gibson, Dietrich Brandis and others sought to promote large scale afforestation programs as a counter weight to industrialization and manmade degradation of the environment.  The government under Governor-General Lord Dalhousie also introduced the first permanent and large-scale forest conservation programme in the world in 1855, a model that soon spread to other colonies, as well as to the United States in due course.

The first Earth Day was celebrated in 1970. Its founder, former Wisconsin Senator Gaylord Nelson, was inspired to create this day of environmental education and awareness after witnessing an oil spill off the coast of Santa Barbara in 1969. Greenpeace was created in 1971 to promote non-violent action for environmental causes. 1980 saw the creation of Earth First!, a group with an ecocentric view of the world – believing in equality between the rights of humans and the rights of all other species to flourish along with the rights of life-sustaining systems as well. Paul R. Ehrlich’s, book The Population Bomb which was published in 1968 greatly increased concerns about the impact of exponential population growth, particularly in developing countries. George Wald even argued, “ Civilization will end in fifteen to thirty years, unless urgent steps are taken.” The former United States Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara even stated, “Indeed, in many ways, rampant population growth is an even more dangerous and subtle threat than thermonuclear war…” Since the 1970s, public awareness, environmental sciences, ecology, and technology have advanced to include contemporary issues such as ozone depletion, global climate change, sustainable technologies, genetically modified crops and genetically modified livestock. There is one more thing that people have realized, “Development is the best contraceptive,” however, paradoxical it may sound. This statement was made by Dr Karan Singh at the World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974.

Rachel Carson's environmental science book “Silent Spring” which was published in 1962, also sought to generate awareness on the environment. This book sold widely, and served its purpose. Kenneth E. Boulding, in his 1966 essay “The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth”, spoke about the need for the economic system to fit itself to the ecological system with its limited pools of resources. In the early 1970s. "Strategy of Progress", a 1972 book by Ernst Basler, explained the importance of preserving forests, and its role in environmental protection. A classic report on the “Limits to Growth” and the need for ecological balance and harmony, was commissioned by the Club of Rome and written by a group of scientists led by Dennis and Donella Meadows of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Jorgen Randers, William W. Behrens, and others. Its findings are recommendations were presented at Moscow and Rio de Janerio in 1971. Other research groups like an MIT research group assessed the implication of growth on the environment. In 1980, the International Union for Conservation of Nature published a world conservation strategy and explained the need for  sustainable development as a global priority

The concept of sustainability may also be defined as “an economy in equilibrium and harmony with basic ecological support systems". Thus, as per this approach, harmony with the ecology and the environment are also emphasized to a high degree, in the short-term, medium-term, and the long-term, along with social harmony and well-being. Sustainable development overlaps with the idea of sustainability to a certain degree. According to UNESCO the distinction between the two concepts as follows: "Sustainability is often thought of as a long-term goal (i.e. a more sustainable world), while sustainable development refers to the many processes and pathways to achieve it." In 2015 the United Nations General Assembly adopted seventeen Sustainable Development Goals for the year 2030. These development goals address various global challenges, including for example poverty, climate change, biodiversity loss, and peace. The idea of sustainability has several planes such as economic, environmental, social and cultural planes. These planes overlap to varying degrees. Sustainable development also reduces the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs when greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere trap heat, thereby raising its surface temperature. 

Industry, farming, and agribusinesses, all cause environmental degradation to varying degrees. Solution strategies may include afforestation, sustainable forest management, organic farming, preservation of biodiversity, modulation of human consumption patterns, and reducing deforestation. Some others have called for vegetarianism, and a reduction of meat consumption as a solution. Non-renewable energy sources are being replaced by new forms of environmentally energy such as solar and wind energy. ICE engines and fossil fuel automotive engines may be replaced by hydrogen and electric engines. All these will reduce the emission of green house gases greatly, and arrest runaway global warming. Corporate sustainability, and corporate social responsibility practices are also important to achieving sustainable development. Afforestation in India has been carried out by Indian states in a big way, particularly Uttar Pradesh and Telengana. Water conservation programs and rainwater harvesting programs have also been implemented in India by many states. Population control has been successful in many states, and one should not listen to pronatalist arguments.  The International Solar Alliance has been proposed by India, and is headquartered in the Indian state of Haryana near New Delhi. The MNREGA, a program by the Indian government,  also has among its missions, conservation of resources, and rural infrastructure creation.

However, the environmental is still somewhat western-centric, and is still somewhat oblivious to concerns in other parts of the world. This may be largely because people including experts and specialists in the develop world, particularly in the global north, may be oblivious to the need to people in the developing world or the global south. In order to solve this, people in the developing world must raise their voices louder. Of course, the environmental movement is showing signs of morphing into a grassroots movement, with many non-governmental organizations taking key and core initiatives, and we must thank our stars for it. [20] [21]

Sound population management as a cornerstone for success

Birth control, which is also sometimes known as anticonception, family planning or fertility control, involves the use of devices, medicines, sterilization, (such as vasectomy and tubal ligation) surgery, or other forms of contraceptives to prevent pregnancy. There are many different types of birth control, including pills, intrauterine devices, tubal litigation, etc. While birth control has been known and has been advocated in some ancient sections of society such as Egypt, China, the Near East and India, it became widespread and widely used only in the twentieth century. The basket of choices has been now widely expanded, and birth control in some form or the other in now practiced in most parts of the world, including developed regions. There are at least four types of exception to family planning and birth control. In one case, there is a total lack of awareness of family planning methods due to ignorance and illiteracy. About 200 million women who want to avoid pregnancy in developing countries do not use birth control methods leading to unwanted pregnancies. In the second case, there is some awareness, but there is no access to family planning devices and methods. These may be either expensive, or out of reach. In the third case, religious values, mores and norms ensure that family planning methods are not practiced, and this was once even observed in western nations. In the fourth case, people may be simply not aware of the dangers of unbridled population growth. People may also in some cases, desire children as they provide them security in their old age. Birth control also involves counseling and the spacing of births appropriately. Birth control increases economic growth and reduces consumption of scarce resources due to a smaller number of dependent children, more women participating in the workforce, and better educated children.

Three types of population planning policies pursued by governments can be identified:

1.       Increasing or decreasing the overall population growth rate.

2.       Increasing or decreasing the relative population growth of a subgroup of people, such as those with perceived high or low intelligence or those with special abilities or disabilities. Policies that seek to boost relative growth rates are known as positive eugenics; those that seek to reduce relative growth rates are known as negative eugenics. Both these concepts are considered to be highly ethical and even illegal in most nations as they are associated with racism and the white man’s supremacy. They should not be promoted or pursued at any cost. Eugenics originated with the ideas of Sir Francis Galton, and partly inspired the Holocaust where millions were exterminated in places like Auschwitz and Treblinka.

3.       Attempts to ensure that all population groups of a certain type (e.g. all social classes within a society) have the same average rate of population growth. This is of course easier said than done.

History of birth control

The world's population was around one billion people in the year 1800. The earth’s population had only very slowly grown up to this point from five around thousand years ago. However, population growth after this has been extremely rapid, and the world’s population had already exceeded the two billion mark by 1927. The earth’s population will most likely surpass nine billion by 2050, and ten billion by 2100 before leveling off. Population growth got a boost with the Industrial Revolution, which introduced better agricultural practices and the production of fossil fuels and minerals, which also bolstered economic growth. New medicines and drugs also brought down the death rate greatly, and increased life expectancy. Therefore, population growth was more about decline in death rates, than changes in birth rates. The global average total fertility rate (the average number of children born per woman) has also been decreasing over the past couple of decades; it decreased from an average of five children per woman in 1960 to 2.3 children per woman in 2024 in large measure due to new contraception methods, improving education, better access to health care, and the empowerment of women. The overall global fertility rate is still above replacement, and the population momentum alone is enough to ensure that the population keeps growing for a few more decades to come.

Birth control came into being in Britain during the nineteenth century, but was at first seen as being highly controversial. Thomas Malthus who belonged to the clergy, condemned birth control in no uncertain terms as being "morally indefensible along with infanticide, abortion, and adultery." Malthus also believed and argued that hunger, disease, famine and war alone could serve as the limitation on population growth and would eventually decimate it. Malthus also recommended sexual abstinence and late marriages as solutions for population growth, which also did not go against Christian morality. Malthusians however supported the idea of limiting population growth through abstinence and promoted their ideas through a variety of groups such as the Malthusian League which was established in 1877. The term “voluntary motherhood” was coined by feminists in the 1870s as a part of women's emancipation movements. This idea emphasized "control", the birth control movement argued that women should have better control over their reproduction and their own bodies. In addition, Charles Knowlton also educated people on birth control methods that he believed would help society greatly. He published  a book called “fruits of philosophy” which was condemned in many quarters. Annie Besant and Charles Bradlaugh also supported Knowlton’s ideas, and were later even placed on trial for it.

However, their efforts were not in vain, and birth rates began to drop slowly, but steadily and surely in the industrialized countries beginning in the 1880’s, due to late marriages and changes in urban conditions. Both men and women became increasingly aware of the need for family planning, and this led to falling birth rates. In the United States, contraception was mostly legal throughout the nineteenth century, but the Comstock Act put severe restrictions on the availability of contraceptives. Later, in the twentieth century, Margaret Sanger and Otto Bobsein popularized the phrase "birth control" which was coined around 1914. Sanger hailed from the United States, but became famous worldwide by the 1930s. Her efforts were not without criticism as the general idea of birth control was seen to be highly controversial at the time. Sanger founded the “American Birth Control League”, which later became the “Planned Parenthood Federation of America”. In 1929, she formed the “National Committee on Federal Legislation for Birth Control”, which served as the focal point of her lobbying efforts to legalize contraception in the United States.. In England, the first birth control clinic was established in 1921 by the birth control campaigner Marie Stopes, in collaboration with the Malthusian League. A book called “Married love” was published in 1918 by Marie Stopes, and advocated birth control. This was later followed up by another book called “Wise Parenthood: a Book for Married People”. By the 1920’s, family planning clinics had been opened in the west, and Margaret Sanger even took her ideas to East Asia, and promoted her ideas among black populations in the United States. Other feminist pioneers, who promoted birth control included British feminist and socialist campaigner Dora Winifred Russell, Rose Lilian Witcop, Guy Alfred Aldred and Stella Browne, and their efforts also increased public knowledge about birth control.

By the 1930’s and the 1940’s, birth control and family planning became much more widely accepted at least in the west, and also began to be practiced widely. The birth control movement also became strong in the 1960’s and the 1970’s, and was associated with the feminist movement there. Endocrinologist-biologist Gregory Goodwin Pincus and Gynecologist and obstetrician John Charles Rock, along with the “Planned Parenthood Federation of America”, developed the first birth control pills in the 1950s, which began to be widely circulated among the public in the 1960s. Many other birth control methods eventually began to be developed, and families now have a wide basket of choices available. Abortion also began to be widely practiced, and conservative Christian opposition to it largely evaporated. In countries such as France, older laws that prevented the effective use of contraception were repealed, and birth control began to be practiced much more widely. Male birth control was also eventually popularized, and became mainstream by the end of the twentieth century, and the beginning of the twenty-first century. [22] [23] [24]

Need to popularize the term population management

We believe there is a need to popularize the term population management, and the reasons for this are as follows:

1.       Different regions and different countries have different needs, different concerns and different considerations. No one size fits all solutions and no artificial equalizers can be designed and enforced.

2.       We live in a demographically divided world with a wide variation in birth rates. This is a reality, however unfortunate and unpleasant it may be.

3.       A comprehensive assessment of issues must always be carried out with deep-rooted and comprehensive multifaceted and interdisciplinary research. There must be no skimming on the surface, and no half-baked assertions.

4.       The effect of man on the environment needs to be properly studied in all its deep-rooted and wide-ranging ramifications.

5.       The impact of birth rates on the environment also needs to be studied in all its deep-rooted and wide-ranging ramifications.

6.       The impact of birth rates on the economy also needs to be studied in all its deep-rooted and wide-ranging ramifications.

7.       Issues such as human rights and reproductive freedoms must also be studied, and must not be trampled upon unless absolutely necessary.

8.       Region and country specific issues must be borne in mind and region and country specific assessments must also be carried out systematically and meticulously at all times.

9.       A long-term vision and a long-term plan for the future is always necessary, and short-term exigencies must not ride roughshod over long-term considerations.

10.   We must bear in mind the welfare of humanity as a whole. We all either swim or sink together.

To reiterate, the time as also come to launch a new wave of population management programs in countries or regions where birth rates are high, and tie it to environmental movements, economic prosperity and economic productivity – this is a position that we strongly endorse. Population control campaigns must continue unabated in Sub-Saharan Africa and other outlying regions. We must bear in mind that the problems in these regions do not correspond to the problems faced by other nations, and therefore a one size fits all approach is never possible. This will also require improved access to education, particularly for the girl child. In our view, ideal populations for the long-term future are as follows, and this will also help bring down pollution to pre-industrial levels, and lead to a greater breadth and diversity of human experience. This will also naturally ensure the long-term survivability of the human species.

2100 AD: 11 billion

2200 AD: 9 billion

2300 AD: 7 billion

2400 AD: 5 billion

2500 AD: 3 billion

3000 AD: 1 billion

Environmental movements can be tied to intellectual revolutions. The first intellectual revolution from our perspective was writing, and its spread in old world civilizations such as Mesopotamia, Egypt, and the Indus Valley fairly rapidly, and was one of the foundations of human civilizations. The second intellectual revolution would refer to the flourishing of science in Ancient Greece, and its stellar contribution to the whole of human civilization. The third intellectual revolution followed the invention of the printing press by Johannes Gutenberg in 1436, when knowledge could be widely disseminated. The fourth intellectual revolution coincided with the renaissance in Europe, while the fifth coincided with the European enlightenment. The sixth intellectual revolution coincided with the second industrial revolution of the late nineteenth and the early twentieth century, when people had plenty of time at their disposal. The seventh intellectual revolution occurred when decolonialization occurred, and this set the stage for new and creative intellectual thought in developing countries, though this would unfortunately be marred by dictatorship and socialism. The eighth intellectual revolution occurred due to globalization, the collapse of the Soviet bloc, and the rise of the internet. The ninth intellectual revolution would be attributed to the rise of smart phones and artificial intelligence, while the tenth we believe could be driven by the globalization of science the way we see it, and the emergence of intellectualism and enlightenments in underrepresented parts of the world.  This must also include environmental awareness as an intrinsic part, because better educated people and more intellectually aware people can contribute to critical thought better. At the same time, countries in Africa must take urgent measure and steps to check and control their population – we need international collaboration here, and other developed and developing countries must help them. We need international collaboration at all levels. Is anyone willing to step in and take the bait?

Pronatalism refers to the general idea or belief that human reproduction is an extremely important goal for human societies regardless of its negative consequences and that birth rates consequently should be as high as possible. Most variants of this approach also call for increasing birth rates in order to boost economic growth regardless of environmental and social consequences. Pronatalism is primarily of two types; the first is pronatalism as a chiefly and primarily personal value.  In such a case, individuals believe in the ideals of pronatalism at a personal level, and make every effort to implement it at a personal realm and domain while only influencing others in a limited way. The second is pronatalism as a policy goal or a policy paradigm. In such a case, governments put forth policies or guidelines to promote high birth rates or otherwise unwanted births regardless of any other types of consequences that may exist. Extreme versions of pronatalism may also condemn abortion, contraceptives, and the use of other birth control measures.

Since the dawn of the twenty-first century, the highly misplaced if not out rightly dangerous threat of a "global demographic collapse" began to take root in the political right, the religious right, and among some venture capitalist circles. This school and train of thought argues that humans will stop reproducing entirely. Not only is this highly fallacious and misleading, but it is also deplorable, and highly condemnable for its alarming tomes. It runs contrary to common sense, and among this proponents rather unfortunately and alarmingly was Elon Musk, who was otherwise concerned about the environment, and preoccupied with environmental issues. Natalism or pronatalism was also promoted by other figures such as Viktor Orban of Hungary, Kevin Dolan, organizer of the Natal Conference, Simone and Malcolm Collins, founders of the website Pronatalist.org, and some others. Many right-wing proponents of pronatalism argue that falling birthrates could lead to economic stagnation, diminished innovation, and an unsustainable burden on social systems due to an aging population. These concerns are not only grossly misplaced but are also highly abominable. This is because such statements can mislead people, and produce millions of unwanted births. There are many ways a society can deal with ageing and other population matters. There are indeed innovative and creative solutions, and these can and must be implemented. We must fight and opposed such knee-jerk reactions or thinking in silos tooth and nail. Hence, this endeavour. Hence, this paper.

The exact opposite of pronatalism is antinatalism, which is the idea of discouraging and being generally unsupportive of increasing the birth rate, at least through artificial means. This ideal may again be fostered, nurtured and cherished at an individual level, or it may take on a governmental approach, with government initiatives rolled out as required. Extreme versions of antinatalism even go to the extent of arguing that humans are a threat to mother earth, and therefore, do not even deserve to exist. Some even argue that humanity must be wiped out. Such positions are also of course extremely rare. The Birth control movement famously and dramatically began in the west through the efforts of Margaret Sanger, Otto Bobsein and others, though by many accounts, she was not entirely agenda free, and supported Eugenics in some form. Pronatalism can be associated with several factors which may include one or more of the following:

Promoting ethnic rivalry

Pronatalism may be used to promote ethnic or regional rivalry. For example, some South Indian states are now increasingly worried that their proportional representation may come down in Indian parliament given the fact that their birth rates are very low in comparison to North Indian states. The solution for this, would of course not to boost birth rates in southern Indian states, but to put pressure on north Indian states which are already reeling from the consequences of high populations to control and restrict their populations. In response or in stark contrast some north Indian states may have wanted to perpetuate their relative clout through the mechanism of Hindi chauvinism.

Nationalism

Pronatalism may be used to promote national identity and foster a sense of national pride. In such as case, governments may fallaciously and erroneously believe that higher populations may increase a nation’s economic, military, and technological clout, hegemony and power. Governments in this case may either make their intentions crystal clear or promote their agendas surreptitiously and clandestinely. It is believed that even governments such as that of Malaysia fell for this trap at one point or the other even though birth rates were relatively high there.

Economic

In such a case, a government might abandon its anti-natalist policies and embrace pronatalist policies in order to boost its work force or its labour force with the mistaken belief that it may automatically and directly boost the economy or yield economic benefits. 

Religion

Many religions may also be considered fundamentally and foundationally pronatalist as they goad their followers to go forth and procreate. Many thinkers also think that Judaism is essentially pronatalist. Similar values are believed to have been carried forward to Islam and other downstream faiths. In Islam, children are considered to be God's blessings and must be nurtured and raised with great care and attention. Some radical Islamic thinkers therefore loathe, or frown upon birth control and family planning. Large families are also supported by many Catholics, some Protestants, and Quiverfulls as well. In spite of all this, fertility rates are decreasing or declining among all communities – this may be ascribed to modernization, and westernization, the two being somewhat different concepts.

Immigration

Pronatalism can be associated with immigration opposition. People want their own ilk and their own flock to grow so that immigration can be avoided. Immigration is also often opposed in many quarters in a nation because it may tilt ethnic composition in favour of immigrants and reduce that native population either in absolute or in relative terms. Concerns about immigration are being raised in many quarters in Europe and the USA, besides some other nations as well. This is believed to alter demographic composition as well as social and cultural values. In Europe, the far-right activist Geert Wilders opposes immigration vehemently and vociferously, and so do some other political parties there. It is feared that immigration will distort the ethnic and religious composition there. Many immigrants also enter the USA illegally mostly via Mexico after crossing the deadly Darien gap, but some also via Canada, and take refuge in sanctuary cities such as New York. 

Maintenance of traditional family structures

Pronatalism is sometimes associated with reinforcing traditional family structures where the husband is responsible for generating the income and the woman is economically dependent on her spouse for her essentials and for her survival. Traditional cultures and traditional societies also sometimes do not agree with the idea of women going out to work. Such cultures may believe that it is the duty of women to procreate and raise children by providing for their needs, and the needs of the rest of the family as well.

Eugenics

Eugenics meaning good genes in Greek, refers to a set of beliefs and practices that aim to improve the genetic quality or the quality of stock of human populations. This doctrine is inherently racist, and presupposes that white individuals are superior to all other humans on earth. The main tool employed by eugenicists is to inhibit the fertility of people and groups that are considered to be inferior, while at the same time, promoting the stocks of humans who are considered to be superior. Therefore, we have different terms such as positive eugenics, which represents the promotion of “good stock,” and negative eugenics, which severely curtains and restricts interbreeding between “defective stock.” Eugenecists may therefore goad select humans to go forth and to multiply. 

Response to low birth rates

Pronatalism has also been promoted in response to declining birth rates in different parts of the world. In the People’s republic of China, the one-child policy was a population and a birth control measure implemented between 1979 and 2015 to curb the country's burgeoning population growth by restricting couples to having only a single child. The program had many social, cultural, economic, and demographic effects which echoed and reverberated throughout society. This program was later gradually withdrawn, and couples are permitted to have as many as three children. Likewise, Russia, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan have also put in place pronatalist measures as the birth rates there are low. This includes maternity leave, child bonuses, child care subsidies, tax rebates, paternity leave, etc. Most of these measures have seldom or scantily worked, and even if they did, the impact or the effect was only temporary. That is why we will always believe and argue that low fertility rates are the new normal and that society and planning policies must be built around them.  Pronatalism is in many ways a dangerous right-wing idea, and must not be promoted where it does not deserve to be promoted. Most experts would concur with this assertion. [25] [26]

Pronatalist groups include pronatalist.org which exaggerates the myth of population or a demographic collapse; at best, we may be entering a slow, long and a gradual phase of population decline. At best, this is several decades away, as populations are still exploding in most of Africa; In Asia, total fertility rates are especially high in the Phillipines, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Israel, and Iraq. Antinatalist groups include proto-antinatalist groups, anti-procreationist groups, etc. Antinatalist individuals include Djuna Barnes, Samuel Beckett, David Benatar, etc. There is an extreme group called voluntary human extinction movement. We do not support such policies. Humans can also help maintain and preserve the planet for other species; we had called this the “Human trusteeship of the planet principle”. Pronatalism is of course associated with right-wing capitalism; right-wing capitalists want to have a large market for their products, goods, and services, and in some cases, are willing to go any length to promote and advance their cause. We can have intermediary positions between the two extremes. But this requires careful, thoughtful and considerate scholarship. It also requires an ideology-free and an agenda-free approach.

What is composition fallacy in science?

The fallacy of composition is an extremely important logical fallacy in science that does not, and rather unfortunately so, gets the attention it deserves or is often given the short-shrift; simply put, it is a fallacy that occurs when one falsely assumes that a property of a part of a whole is also entirely true of the whole. This can lead to incorrect conclusions because the properties of a group may not be the same as the properties of its individual parts. Likewise, the population also may not be entirely homogenous, and there may be wide variations in it. For example, the total fertility rate of Niger is ten times that of South Korea. Likewise, the population density of nations varies by several thousands of orders of magnitude right from Bangladesh to Greenland or Iceland. This fallacy may also be found in many aspects and endeavours in the social sciences. The fallacy of division occurs when people assume that if something is true of a group, then it's also true of each individual in the group. All these aspects need to be borne in mind and scholarship or policy recommendations initiated accordingly. [27]

What is population composition fallacy?

Therefore, to extend the above analogy in meaningful and in practical directions, population cannot be treated as a monolithic unit. There is a myth of homogeneity of populations of most populations are not entirely homogenous. There are wide differentials particularly in developing countries like India. Many such countries have elite populations, and very poor people has well. In India we have had a caste system which is mostly dying out now.  Such artificial systems exacerbate divisions greatly. Likewise, the USA and South Africa are highly diverse (both culturally and socially) as well, and are highly non-homogenous. Different regions have different problems, and we can neither have oversimplified diagnoses nor one size fits all solutions.  Given that there are wide variations and differentials between populations in developing countries such as India, boosting education systems will give such nations a big legup.  We also have different types of sociocultural groups and socioeconomic groups in a countries, and all these have different tendencies and proclivities.[28] [29]

Environmental footprint

An environmental footprint, also known as an ecological footprint, is a measure of the impact a person, society, culture or activity has on different aspects or elements of the environment. It can be used to assess the environmental performance of individuals, cultures and societies. The concept of an environ mental footprint measures natural resource use, greenhouse gas emissions, and utilization of replenishable and non-replenishable resources. This kind of an analysis is extremely important because it helps governments draft public policy. It can also help identify ecologically and economically feasible practices. It can also adiditonally help countries determine if they are living within their own biocapacity. Environmental footprints are calculated using a wide variety of rapidly evolving approaches and techniques. For example,  it may consider multiple impacts of an activity, rather than focusing on just a single one. Whenever and wherever applied to organizations or companies, it considers the entire life cycle of a product or organization, from raw material extraction to end of life.  Every activity has an environmental footprint. Developed countries contribute to greenhouse gas emissions more than developing ones. Human environmental footprint will continue to rise as societies evolve and become more prosperous. It will also continue to rise as urbanization increases, and the utilization of technologies increases as well. Likewise, the per capita environmental footprint is also likely to rise as societies mature and evolve. Energy utilization per capita and resource consumption per capita are also likely to increase.

People living in more developed parts of the world, such as Europe and America, have a disproportionate ecological and environmental impact on the planet. That means that fewer people being born in wealthy countries has the most immediate and positive impact on our environment, climate and sustainability. Likewise, the impact of populations in the developing world is likely to increase fast. It is very difficult to prevent or restrict denizens and citizens in most countries to enjoy a lavish lifestyle. Well said, and let them have it. Change can only come from within. Countries must not therefore not promote pronatalism at any cost. We have also developed concepts such as the ideal total fertility rate in this regard, and readers are strongly urged to refer our previous work. Global warming will continue unabated even if we get rid of fossil fuels in the long-term. There are plenty of development models to choose from that maximize human welfare and happiness. Economic development models must be tweaked to make them environmentally friendly. Therefore, there must be epistemic coherentism, and government leaders must be trained in environmental science. Epistemic coherentism involves merging short term with long term considerations and merging local with global considerations. Our papers seek to achieve just that. That is why we need population management to be integrated with environmental movements; the two causes do not appear to have gelled or elided completely as yet. The two seem to have taken off in tangential directions for the most part. 

Demographically divided world

After several decades of rapid population growth in most parts of the world due to demographic transition, most countries have now either reached replacement levels of fertility or below replacement levels of fertility. In the 1960’s, it was unthinkable to most humans, but it has at last and finally happened. We must be thankful for it, at least to a large numbers of planners and policy makers worldwide. The only significant and notable exception to this rule at present is sub-Saharan Africa where fertility rates and population growth still remain stubbornly and chimerically high. According to recent UN estimates, the total fertility rate of all the countries of sub-Saharan Africa taken together, averaged at 4.7 births per woman during the period 2015–2020, much higher than anywhere else in the world. This is similar to situations prevailing in Latin America in the 1960’s, and Europe in the Nineteenth century. Nigeria’s situation is absolutely dangerous given that it has a large population to begin with, and a dangerous ripple and cascading effect for much of humanity. Nigeria’s situation is so pathetic and hopeless, that Ehrlich’s alarmist pithy and catchphrase “No time for the third world” begins to reverberate even more loudly and resoundingly.

Israel and the Philippines likewise, had a TFR or 2.7 children per women, and are at best only very slowly declining. There may be many different causes of varying fertility rates in different countries, and a root cause analysis always needs to be performed, and this needs to be context and situation based and dependant. In France and Israel for example, high fertility rates may be tied to ethnic pride. Other outliers were Afghanistan and Yemen where total fertility rates are in the region of four children per woman or so. In India, Bihar has the highest fertility rate of 3.0 children per woman in 2024, while most other Indian states continue to report below replacement levels of fertility. It could prove fallacious and demographically expensive to assume the fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa will collapse automatically. As a matter of fact, fertility declines have stalled in many African countries in the past few decades. Indeed, plenty of internal and external intervention is required. It is necessary to sound the bugle and raise a clarion call. It is also necessary to systematically study the causes of high fertility in those regions, which may indeed be different from those of other countries, and then implement solutions accordingly. Currently recorded and observed fertility rates in those regions may even be above the desired family size, though this is not always necessarily the case. Many if not most people in the region simply desire large families, unlike other regions of the planet. But nobody appears to be interested. Why? This is because most forms of intellectualism and most thought processes appear to be Eurocentric and western-centric in orientation. People in the west, and those elsewhere simply could not care, and do not care. [30] [31]

Such countries need help before it is too late. Each country and each region has its own unique set of ground realities, and its own unique set of problems. South Korea’s problems are not Nigeria’s problems. We must wake up to this ground reality. Countries like India also suffer from pollution problems, most notably the National Capital Region which suffers from smog caused by stubble burning. Such problems will only increase as people begin to get richer and richer. While Paul Ehrlich’s concerns may have been exaggerated, they were not off the mark. They were almost certainly not wrong. It is necessary to resurrect the idea of population management now, and before it is too late. The theory of demographic transition may also be called into question here; we do not yet know for certain or for sure if counties in Sub-Saharan Africa will reach replacement level fertility or not. The countries with the highest fertility in 2024, according to the United Nations population fund are as follows:

S.No	Country	TFR in 2024
1	Niger	6.6
2	Chad	6.0
3	Democratic republic of Congo	6.0
4	Somalia	6.0
5	Central African Republic	5.7
6	Mail	5.7
7	Angola	5.0
8	Nigeria	5.0
9	Burundi	4.8
10	Benin	4.7

 

Solutions to combat low fertility rates

Population ageing can be managed through a wide variety of different approaches. The following are some of the more common approaches that can be adopted, or are already being adopted by many nations, though there may be a couple of others as well:

1.       Automation

Automation refers to a wide array of novel and contemporary technologies that aim to reduce human intervention in manual and mechanical processes that require minimum skill or mind application, through the automation of tedious and repetitive manual tasks. Automation was achieved in large-scale factories and large scale industrial production from the middle of the nineteenth century onwards. By the 1980’s, computers and robots had also become popular. Today the new buzzword is artificial intelligence and machine learning both of which are set to revolutionize how we think and communicate. Automation has been achieved by means of mechanical, electrical, hydraulic, pneumatic, and electronic devices, usually in combination with one another. Complicated systems, such as modern industrial enterprises, aeroplanes, automobiles and ships may use harmonious combinations of all of these techniques to a great overall effect. The benefits of automation may include labor savings, wastage reduction, reduced electricity consumption, savings in material costs, reduction of overheads, and improved product quality. Automation is inevitable in today’s world. It will happen regardless of whether a labour pool exists or not. It is necessary for human beings to wake up to this reality.

2.       Robots

A robot is a machine usually one that is programmed by a computer—which can carry out a complex series of actions automatically, or with minimal human intervention. Robots are often human like in shape to convey a sense of accomplished intelligence to the general public, but the emphasis is mostly on functionality, and not aesthetics. Robotics is a distinct and a rapidly evolving field of study that deals with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots, as well as computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing. Robots may be autonomous or semi-autonomous and range from humanoids such as Sophia, Atlas, Honda's Advanced Step in Innovative Mobility (or ASIMO), R2-D2 and TOSY's TOSY Ping Pong Playing Robot (or TOPIO) to medical operating robots,, industrial robots, dog therapy robots, patient assist robots, collectively programmed swarm robots, UAV drones such as General Atomics MQ-1 Predator, and even microscopic nano robots. We also have different types of robots such as articulated robots, autonomous robots, Cartesian coordinate robots, cylindrical coordinate robots, spherical coordinate robots, SCARA robots, and delta robots. An industrial robot is used for manufacturing, and is automated, programmable and capable of complex multidimensional movements to mimic humans as far as possible. Agricultural robots are increasingly being used in picking, harvesting, sowing, and other mundane and repetitive tasks. These often save farmers money in the form of labour costs.

3.       Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence was founded as an academic discipline in 1956 by John MacCarthy, and the field went through several iterations and subsequent major revolutionary breakthroughs. Artificial intelligence refers to intelligence or near intelligence exhibited by machines, particularly by advanced computer systems that mimic human learning patterns and processes such as reasoning and problem solving abilities, planning and decision making, and learning abilities. Artificial intelligence enabled computers also perceive their environment and use learning and intelligence to take intelligent actions for the welfare of society and human good. We also have concepts such as weak AI, strong AI, narrow AI, general AI, and super AI, and these are terms most researchers must be aware of. Artificial intelligence may eventually take on many mundane tasks and reduce the need for human intervention greatly.  This is a field with immense scope and potentially, though it will never perhaps replace human intelligence entirely.

4.       Agricultural drones

A drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle or a flying object with no human pilot, crew, or passengers on it. Drones were developed relatively recently and became widespread and popular only in the twenty-first century. Drones are used in various applications such as  aerial photography, surveillance, emergency response and disaster relief. An agricultural drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle used in agriculture operations, mostly in scouting, yield optimization and in monitoring crop yield, crop growth, crop health, field conditions, and crop production. Agricultural drones provide information on crop growth stages, crop health, and soil variations. They are also used in planting and seeding and can bring down water consumption, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption greatly, and the usage of agricultural drones can greatly bring down labour requirement. This is true because agricultural activities consume a great deal of labour. Agricultural drones represent a significant step up from the early farm mechanization efforts of the early part of the twentieth century when tractors and harvesters were primarily used. 

5.       Outsourcing

Outsourcing is an increasingly common business strategy and technique in which companies make use external entities or captive units, particularly those located in foreign lands to carry out business tasks, (either high end ones or low end ones) that could otherwise be handled internally using internal resources, albeit at a greater cost. The term outsourcing, (which came from the phrase outside resourcing), originated in the 1980’s, and has been widely used ever since. It has now become a buzzword and a catchphrase as well, and is widely practiced by European and American companies. Outsourcing brings along with it many business benefits, primarily cost savings. The exact opposites of outsourcing are inshoring and insourcing. Outsourcing may eventually become more high end, and we have concepts such as cost arbitrage and skill arbitrage here.

6.       Offshoring

Offshoring is likewise becoming an increasingly popular activity these days – offshoring involves the relocation of a business process or a part thereof from one country to another—these may include core operational processes, such as production and manufacturing, or supporting processes, such as finance, payroll, administration, and accounting. Offshoring is particularly lucrative when there is a significant wage difference between the source and destination countries, and when remote work is possible for the job without compromising on quality. In-house offshoring is said to take place when the offshored work is done by means of an internal or captive entity. Nearshoring is a form of offshoring in which the other country is relatively close such as one sharing a border. In such cases, linguistic and cultural similarities are often leveraged in order to accomplish a smooth operation.

7.       Upskilling

Upskilling requires teaching an employee additional employable skills. This may also require upgrading qualifications by means of additional degrees or certifications. Upskilling is constantly carried out by employers, and may be either mandated or encouraged. In many cases, employees upskill of their own accord in order to take advantage of new and better employment opportunities that are available. A declining workforce means that countries must make their workforce more employable through upskilling. This can lead to a wide variety of economic benefits such as improved and faster economic growth. The Indian government has also of late promoted skilling, upskilling and reskilling through the promulgation of several programs.

8.       Altered economic focus

Whenever population ageing occurs, countries may change their economic development model and growth strategy, and tweak it accordingly. For example, countries may shift from labour intensive jobs to capital intensive jobs. Labour intensive jobs are those that require large amounts of labour, while capital intensive jobs are those jobs that do not require large amounts of labour – wherever labour is required, it may have already been automated, or emphasis is placed on high-skilled or super-specialized labour that is not readily available in poorer countries. Therefore, employment must be boosted in certain sectors, particularly high skilled sectors and capital intensive sectors. This will give ageing countries a distinct advantage over other countries.

9.       Harnessing the silver dividend

The silver dividend refers to the economic and social benefits that are reaped from an aging population, and the knowledge and unique skills resident only in an older and more experienced workforce. The silver dividend is realized when the elderly population remains active and engaged in the economy. It is quite similar to the demographic dividend, which stems from the presence of a large working-age population. 

10.   Harnessing the gender dividend

The gender dividend is the economic growth that can result from investing in women’s education, and empowering them in various aspects of society. It can be achieved by increasing women's participation in the workforce, and increasing the education levels, skilling and employability of women. This can also increase when fertility rates are relatively low, as more and more women are engaged in the workforce, and contribute greatly to the economy.

11.   Better education

Pedagogy, which is the science of learning and teaching both theoretical and practical, also investigates how learning outcomes are influenced by, the social, political, and psychological development of learners in a wide variety of social and cultural settings. Pedagogy, as a formal academic field of study and research, probes and investigates how knowledge and skills are imparted in an educational context, and studies the processes of interactions that take place during learning, and bidirectional influences with other extraneous aspects and factors including both cultural and non-cultural ones.

12.   Better child care

Childcare, which is also commonly known as day care, is the care and supervision of one or more children, who are toddlers, infants or prepubescent children by specially trained caregivers and caretakers. Childcare and daycare are required when both parents are working, and are unable to pamper or devote attention to children. Childcare is a very broad and a generic term that covers a wide variety of skilled and trained professionals, institutions, activities, and social and cultural entities. Professional caregivers include creches, daycare, preschools and schools or a home-based care such nannies or family daycare.

13.   Raising retirement age

Retirement are may also be suitably raised as required. The common retirement age in most counties or societies is between 58 and 60 years old. However, this may be increased to as much as 65 or 70 years of age. In most countries however, employment is provided by private entities who may take suitable steps in this regard. Professionals may also not fully retire; they may only semiretire, and continue to work as consultants.

14.   Adoption 

Adoption is a process whereby a person legally takes over or assumes the custodianship of a child, from that person's biological or legal parents who may be either alive or deceased. This may happen when a child’s biological parents are deceased, or are otherwise unable to take care of the child owing to financial or non-financial restrictions., and handicaps  Legal adoptions permanently transfer all rights and responsibilities, along with filiation and custodianship, from the biological parents to the adopting parents. Unlike guardianship, adoption brings about a permanent change in status and is often accompanied by societal recognition, though this is by no means always necessary.

15.   Immigration

Immigration is the process of moving to a new country to become a permanent resident or citizen. It involves following the rules and regulations of the destination country. Immigration may be either legal or illegal. It may be temporary or permanent and reversible or irreversible. It may involved highly skilled labour or unskilled labour. Immigrants may also be granted temporary or permanent residency, or in some cases, citizenship.  Immigration can have social, economic, and cultural benefits for states, though it can also lead to frustration or strain. Of late millions of people from Asia and Africa have moved into North America and Europe either legally or illegally. The benefits of migration or the absence thereof, has become a raging debate there, and has become fraught with political overtones.

Additionally, the Brain drain can also be reversed by creating a reverse brain drain.  Brain drain is the emigration of highly educated and skilled people from one country to another who often leave their nature country too look for greener pastures. It can also refer to the great loss of these people to a country especially if highly skilled and talented ones leave. Whenever this situation is reversed, a reverse brain drain results. Many countries have been taking steps to reverse brain drain. India has been offering OCI cards, and some nations have been offering dual citizenship.

Lower birth rates can lead to an evergreen demographic boon

Lower birth rates may lead to what we have called an “Evergreen demographic boon”;  This is because of the following factors

1.       Parents take care of their children better when they have a fewer children; refer to “Theory X and Theory Y” in our previous publication. This can also be validated through ethnography and field work.

2.       Better quality human resources: This will in a vast majority of cases lead to better quality human resources.

3.       Sustainable development: This will also lead to more sustainable development.  

4.       Ecologically friendly development: This will also lead to more ecologically friendly development  

5.       Urban renewal: This will also lead to urban renewal as there will be more space for urban development.  

6.       Less transportation bottlenecks: This will lead to less transportation problems, and ease out transportation bottlenecks.  

7.       More land for afforestation and reforestation:  There will naturally be more land available for afforestation and reforestation. This will help societies reclaim the earth from human intervention slowly and eventually.

8.       More equitable intergenerational wealth transfer: This will lead to more equitable intergenerational wealth transfer as more assets will be available to each child per capita.

9.       Resources are not stretched out too thin: Resources are not stretched out too thin. This is absolutely important because we have a complete and a logical fallacy of perfectly sustainable development. For example, metals are not renewable, and even electric and hydrogen cars have an environmental foot print. The consumption of plastic, wood and paper is also extremely dangerous and harmful to the environment, and even bioplastic has a large environmental footprint.  

10.   Educated people contribute more to the economy: Educated people contribute more to the economy; this is a very obvious fact and a no brainer

11.   Educated people pay more taxes: Educated people also pay more taxes and fill up the government coffers and treasuries much, must faster; this would be a very obvious fact and a no brainer to most ordinary people.

12.   Wages will rise, and poverty rates will naturally reduce. 

13.   This will help a country transition from a low-skilled economy to a semi-skilled economy, and then to a high-skilled economy. It will also help countries to mature and evolve to a skill arbitrage model from a cost arbitrage model.

14.   The only issue here to deal with is the availability of low end labour; there are many approaches to address this, as has been discussed in this paper.

15.   Even economies with low fertility rates continue to grow – there is plenty of evidence for this; refer another section of this paper for more information.  

16.   No obsession with growth rates and economy sizes alone: This has become a preoccupation with many if not most planners especially since the 1990’s. While all this may be necessary, this must be counterbalanced with other aspects such as human welfare, human happiness, and environmental sustainability. We need to have epistemic coherentism and this will include merging local with global considerations, merging short term with long-term considerations, tradeoffs, prioritization, etc. Refer our paper on epistemic coherentism for this purpose.

17.   We need a holistic approach: This approach and technique must be counterweighed against a large number of other aspects and considerations. For example, research on sustainable development, sustainable development models, and renewable energies must continue unabated, and in full steam.  This will also give humans more time to chart out their destiny and their future, particularly in relation to other ecosystems, and other flora and fauna. There are many unresolved issues at this point in time; for example, debate is still raging about the future of plastic in world economies.

18.   From a purely environmental and ecological perspective, and even from an economic perspective, we had proposed a total fertility rate of 1.3 to 1.8 children per woman. This would help economies adjust naturally without severely impacting or destroying the environment and the habitat.

19.   We can make another interesting observation in this context, and in this background; richer and wealthier parents (as and when they become richer and wealthier, that is) may actually be able to raise more kids with more money. This must be proven with more evidence and data, of course. Therefore, improving education systems may also increase the flow of quality human resources in more ways than one.

20.   Dangers of copy paste scholarship or isolationist thinking: JD Vance’s views about “childless cat ladies” and Elon Musk’s warnings about low birth rates have kindled interest, but every statement must be viewed not in isolation, but in complete harmony with other statements. Kautilya, an Indian economist, in his treatise Arthasastra, viewed demographic management  as being essential for survival. Medieval Islamic and Confucian scholars also heavily focused on balancing population with social cohesion and communal harmony. Likewise, Thomas Aquinas found the pursuit of social justice to be integrated with population dynamics. Early demographers such as John Graunt, Sir William Petty, and Edmond Halley effectively laid the foundations for the science of demography. They developed early statistical and census methods that laid the foundation for modern demography. We must extend these foundations to modern conditions, and contextualize them in the realities of the twenty-first century. Western societies, rather unfortunately do not look at issues from the point of view of other countries. For example, the situation in countries such as Nigeria is rather grave and alarming.

21.   There are therefore several foundational and fundamental differences between western nations where most intellectuals reside, and some other parts of the world; these include (a) Western nations already have low birth rates, many of them at least (b) Many western nations have lower population densities and less strain on natural resources (c) Developed nations have more realized human potential than developing countries do; therefore, developing countries can grow for much longer as human potential is gradually fulfilled or realized to a higher degree. Developing countries also have more partial, disguised and seasonal employment that can be put to good use.

Conclusion

This paper is yet another important one in our long series of papers on population management and particularly on the relationship between the population and the environment. We had rightly and earnestly begun this paper by defining what an environment is, and reviewing its basic constituents, by drawing reference to our previously published papers and books. We then provided a very brief introduction and overview to environmental studies, and provided an introduction and overview to environmental anthropology as well, before reviewing the impact humans have had on the environment since aeons and time immemorial.  We then also reviewed and overviewed the concepts associated with sustainable development, and the ‘Human trusteeship of the planet” principle. The history of the environmental movement is also traced along with all its pitfalls, inadequacies, and inherent limitations in view of the fact that its orientation is somewhat Eurocentric, and based on European considerations. We also then emphasized the need for sound population management, and laid bare the dangers of pronatalism. The notion or the scenario of a population collapse is also not as alarming or dangerous as it is made out to be, and humans still draw heavily from the earth’s resources. There are also indeed many ways we can deal with lower populations, as we had also discussed and shown. Therefore, the environmental movements needs to be at least partially realigned keeping in mind the earth’s limitations and the long-term well-being of mankind.  This paper is as always, tied to all our previous papers and publications, and all of them need together for maximal efficacy and impact.

 

 

 

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