Dismantling the population composition fallacy: Why we need to treat low fertility as the new normal and work on improving education systems instead

 

Introduction

“The best contraceptive is economic growth.” – Jack Goldstone, American sociologist and political scientist 

Development is the best contraceptive – statement made by Dr Karan Singh, former minister for education in India, in 1974 at Bucharest at the world population conference

This paper is a very important and an intrinsic component of our series of papers on population management. We begin this paper by reviewing and dissecting fertility trends from all across the world to show that we are still living in a demographically divided world. We also review the concepts of pronatalism and antinatalism in brief, and go on to show that unbridled pronatalism is very much a right wing ideology, and is fraught with a series of dangerous, and highly unintended consequences. Pronatalist policies are unlikely to work either, for the most part, and shown and demonstrated by data and evidence culled and collected form many different regions of the world where birth rates have already fallen. Therefore, moderation is always required in all facet of human endeavour. We also then explain what is meant by the population composition fallacy, any proclaim the myth of homogeneity of populations both within and across regions. We then also review the theory of demographic dividend, and review its limitations as well. We also go on to state that there is a myth of perfectly sustainable development, and that the human environmental footprint is likely to expand continuously. We are currently in the middle of the sixth mass extinction event, also known as the Holocene event, or the Anthropocene extinction event, and greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly increasing. The rate of increase of greenhouse gas emissions are also likely to be far higher in developing countries, than in developed one, as they seek to catch up in terms of standards of living. Therefore, we do not need copy and paste scholarship, and one that is born out of deep-rooted cogitation, and based on foundationalism and epistemic coherentism.  This will help us find the right, middle path as we still remain torn by our loyalty or commitment to various ideologies. Man is free to pursue his passions, and pursue his goals and ambitions, but he must do so responsibly, and always keeping environmental considerations in mind. [1] [2]

Fertility trends

The term demography is believed to have arisen from the Ancient Greek word “demos” meaning “people or society” and “grapho” which means “to write”. Demography refers to the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (for e.g., by ethnicity, age, gender, language, religion, and other dimensions), and how they change over time through the interplay of various factors such fertility (meaning births), mortality (meaning deaths), and inward or outward migrations. Demography is sometimes seen as a field within sociology, though not always, as many concepts are independent in their own right. Thoughts on human population existed in many early civilizations such as Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, China and India. The Han dynasty in Ancient China even maintained population registers, and this practice was carried forward to medieval times. In ancient Greece, for example, writers and thinkers such as Herodotus, Thucydides,  Protagoras, Plato, Hippocrates, Epicurus, Polus, and Aristotle contemplated on population matters as did Cicero, Seneca, Pliny the Elder, Marcus Aurelius, Epictetus, Cato, and Columella later on in Rome. In the Middle Ages in Europe, eminent Christian thinkers revised and rethought many ideas on demography. Notable and eminent thinkers of this era included Bartholomew of Lucca, William of Pagula, William of Conches, William of Auvergne, and Islamic thinkers and writers such as Ibn Khaldun. More recently, Benjamin Franklin, John Graunt, Edmund Halley, Benjamin Gompert, Achille Guillard, Augustus De Morgan and Richard Price also contributed to demographic studies in some way or the other. Thomas Robert Malthus also proved to be an eminent thinker, and some of his doomsday ideas proved to be highly influential in the field of demography and population studies.

In the Nineteenth century, demography morphed into a separate area of interest and distinct field of study away from statistics from which it partially originated. Thinkers from this era included eminent scholars such as William Farr, Louis-Adolphe Bertillon, Richard Bockh, Wilhelm Lexis, Adolphe Quetelet, Joseph Korosi, Anders Nicolas Kaier, and Luigi Bodio.  It is not possible to examine all their theories, contributions and ideas in this paper, and the objective of this work is entirely different. We will therefore, briefly only touch upon the main and the crucial ones, and leave it to readers to do their own homework with the rest. Demographic analysis is also carried out by undertaking censuses, as this techniques can provide robust, rock solid and infallible data. A census is a survey that collects detailed or summary information from every person or an entity in a group or population, and this is also known as a complete enumeration. The information gathered may include location, gender, age, characteristics, economic status, and educational attainment.  The word "census" comes from the Latin word “census”, which in turn is derived from the term “censere” meaning "to give as an opinion, assess, appraise, perform the duties of a censor". The first known use of the word "census" occurred in the year 1634. However, of late surveys and sampling surveys are being increasingly conducted, and the results of such surveys are extrapolated onto the entire population.

The world’s population in 10000 BCE was estimated to have been around two million; this increased progressively to around 15 million by 3000 BCE due to the Neolithic revolution and the later emergence of old world civilizations. Some other factors that contributed to the growth of human populations during this period include the domestication of different types of animals, the invention of the wheel, agriculture and storage of grains, the development of new production techniques for metals as a part of the Chalcolithic and Bronze age civilizations, and the invention of writing. However, populations may have been unstable during this period, and may have been ravaged by famine and disease. The world’s population is believed to have further increased to one hundred million at the dawn of the Christian era, though such estimates are notoriously unreliable. While estimates of early population counts are unreliable, early attempts to systematically count population date to the endeavours of William Petty in 1682, and some others. Sometimes, Markov models have also been applied, but these are not fully reliable. Some other estimates put the human population count at 300 million in 1000 AD, and 450 million in 1500 AD. There were periods of constriction or reduction of population such as Great Famine of 1315–1317, Plague of Justinian, and the end of the Black Death in 1350. No large scale worldwide constriction events may have however occurred since the per-historical Toba catastrophe event of some seventy thousand years ago. There was also a moderate population loss between 200 AD and 400 AD, and the little ice age contributed to population decline between 1300 AD and 1400 AD. Human population growth is attributed to its success as a species, though it may not last for long. Birth rates have been falling over the past two centuries or so, even though death rates have been falling much, much faster. This has naturally led to a population explosion of sorts. A population explosion may be defined as a sudden or a rapid explosion of population, with a large number of unwarranted and unintended negative consequences. The term is widely used today in demographic studies. A population explosion may even be catastrophic, and millions of people may die due to famine or disease. Population explosion or not there is a “General tendency of the population to increase”, and this observation is also one of the foundational pillars of this paper. While there may be exceptions, these must be carefully noted in order to draw conclusions there from.

World population milestones in billions (Worldometers estimates)
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1804	1930	1960	1974	1987	1999	2011	2022	2037	2057
200,000+	126	30	14	13	12	12	11	15	20

 

The highest global population growth rates, with average increases of over 2.0% every year, took place between the years 1955 and 1975, peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970. The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century. The Total fertility rates representing the average number of children born per woman, has also declined to 2.3 children per woman in 2024, and may reach replacement rates by the middle of the century. Africa, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa may alone remain a significant outlier to this overall and broad trend. The population may stop growing entirely by the year 2100 after it reaches around ten billion, if proper policies are put in place in different parts of the world. The total number of annually births globally is currently around (for the period between 2015–2020) 140 million per year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040–2045 at around 141 million per year and then decline gradually to 126 million per year by 2100. The total number of deaths is currently around 57 million per year and is projected to grow steadily to around 121 million per year by the year 2100, leading to net zero additions. However, per capita consumption of natural resources may keep on increasing (if not Co2 emissions per capita) and human will continue to threaten the environment, and pose a major threat to biodiversity and other plant and animal species. In the modern age, humans are much better able to take control of their resources and their own destiny like never before in human history. However, the will, the conceptual clarity, and the theoretical foundation must be available. Hence, this paper. [3]

Humans have had a major, profound, and a dramatic effect on the environment. Humans may even be classified as apex predators, as they are seldom preyed upon by other species. Large scale and rampant human population growth, coupled with rapid industrialization, land encroachment, overconsumption and unabated combustion of fossil fuels have led to environmental destruction and pollution on a scale like the planet has never seen before that also significantly contributes to the ongoing rapid mass extinction of other forms of life. Within the last century, human civilization has morphed and metamorphosized unrecognizably. Humans have conquered space, explored the depths of the earth, and challenging environments such as Antarctica as well. Humans are now thinking of conquering other planets, and even other outer reaches of space.  However, the environmental movement has only taken off recently and very slowly and haltingly. This is clearly a case of misplaced priorities. Even great thinkers such as Stephen Hawking, Aldous Huxley, Bertrand Russell, Isaac Asimov, H G Wells, and others did not apparently care about the environment significantly or at all. Even contemporary thinkers have barely scratched the surface, and remain out of breadth on the issue. The time is now long overdue to take climate change seriously and assess the impact man has had, and will continue to have on the environment.

In the field of demography, the theory of demographic transition is a theory which has been widely attested to by empirical data in various societies and cultures over the past two or three centuries. It was initially developed based on observations made by Warren Thompson, Adolphe Landry, and others. This theory refers to, and reflects a historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in traditional or backward societies with a low level of technological percolation, a low level education, women’s empowerment, and economic development, (in primitive and backward societies, death rates were also high due to wars, famines, droughts, and internecine strife) to a state of low birth rates and low death rates in societies with much more advanced technology, high levels of education, women’s empowerment, and economic development. This theory also maps the different intermediary stages between these two extreme scenarios. For example, in early years populations remained stable because of high birth and death rates, famines and wars – however, a sudden reduction of death rates due to an improvement of medical facilities for example, led to a population explosion. Many countries have now successfully and effectively transitioned to the last state where both birth and death rates are low, or even where birth rates are lower than death rates; thus, doomsayers have been effectively proved wrong. Birth rates have fallen from around five children per woman in the middle of the nineteenth century, to slightly over two children per woman today.

Almost half the world’s population today lives in countries with below replacement birth rates, and birth rates are falling or plummeting everywhere. The only significant exceptions and outliers can be said to be much of Sub-Saharan Africa, and isolated pockets of Asia such as Afghanistan and the Phillipines. Even in these regions or countries, total fertility rates are gradually falling, and it is only a matter of time that these regions or countries reach replacement fertility rates, as and when there is greater economic prosperity, an enhanced standard of living, and women’s empowerment and education, including more employment opportunities for women. Birth rates also decline people more and more people appreciate, and warm up to the importance of education as a vital game changer. Low TFR’s are in many ways a good thing, because it boosts per capita land stock, increases investment in human capital in general, and reduces environmental degradation.  Many people who proposed that religious, cultural and economic factors would play a major role in determining fertility rates have also been partly proven wrong.  Birth rates are falling everywhere, including in developing countries, thereby boosting socio-economic progress to a great degree. The co-relation between the two is very nearly an established fact, and the correlation between these two factors is often bidirectional and multidimensional. 

In India, the importance of family planning was realized by some early thinkers such as Raghunath Dhondo Karve way back in the 1920’s. At that time however, the merits of birth control were not widely realized, and contemporary thinkers such as Mahatma Gandhi and Periyar EVR had a diversity of opinions on the issue of birth control.  In 1952, India under Jawaharlal Nehru, became practically the first country in the entire developing world to implement an intensive government-sponsored family planning program, also called the National Family Planning Program. This program was even built into India’s early five year plans. Among the program's objectives was to reduce total fertility rates in order to slow down population growth, and accelerate the process of economic progress. In keeping with the demographic ideals of the nation, the program was purely voluntary. Hence, initial progress was slow, and the demographic transition in India took place much more slowly than it did in China, and other countries. In India, the TFR in the early 1950’s was around six children per women, very high of course, but way lower that some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa at that time. By 2023, India had already reached its replacement level of fertility, and took over seventy five years after independence, to do so. One mistake early planners may have made was to discount the importance education could play in bringing down birth rates, particularly women’s education. Thus, literacy rates, particularly women’s literacy rates remained low in the early decades of India’s independence. India’s literacy rate was estimated to be 34% in 1971, and 43% in 1981 according to decadal census figures, which is extremely low indeed. It was not until the 2000’s that more meaningful universalization of education programs such as the Sarva Siksha Abhiyan were launched, and began to have a substantial and a significant impact on various aspects and facets of daily life. The right to education act was not passed by the Indian government until the year 2009.

India at that time also pursued a semi-Stalinist planned economic programme, and it is even said that some planners even believed that India would not  be able to produce or generate enough jobs if too many of its people were highly educated. India therefore pursued a “vertical approach” to family planning, and neglected additional factors such as education, women’s empowerment, poverty reduction, rapid economic development etc. According to some other sources, the importance and the ideals of family planning were also not properly communicated to the masses. While nobody today considers India’s family planning programme to be an absolute or a dismal failure, progress was initially slow and tardy, and the TFR was brought down only very gradually, at least in the initial years. There were also wide variations by region and community, and such disparities were initially not sought to be addressed. In some states, people with over two children were disincentivized from holding government jobs. Monetary incentives were also provided, though these were small. To make matters worse, forced sterilization programmes and campaigns were launched during the emergency of the mid-1970’s, and these appear to have boomeranged and backfired horribly, setting India’s family planning programmes by several years at least, if not several decades. 

However, birth rates have since steadily fallen; Kerala was the first to achieve replacement TFR in 1988, followed by Tamilnadu in 1993, and many other states followed in quick succession. As of 2024, even Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have reached replacement level fertility, while fertility rates in parts of north India such as Punjab, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are even lower than that of the south. Uttar Pradesh may not reach a replacement level figure until 2027, in spite of the recent announcement of a new population control policy there, while Bihar and Meghalaya may not reach replacement TFR until the 2030’s. There is a gap between Hindus and Muslims, which slowly appears to be narrowing. An interesting case is however, Jammu and Kashmir which, despite being Muslim majority now has a total fertility rate that is well below replacement. Therefore, we must never over-simplify issues; there will always be a wide range of parameters to be considered. A grounds up and a data driven approach must also always be carried out.

Of late, some groups of people in India (those belonging to different parts of India, as a matter of fact) have begun to draw inspiration from concerns raised by people in different parts of the West and the Far East where birth rates are far, far lower than they presently are in India, and have begun to advocate for higher birth rates. This argument is fallacious, if not outright dangerous. This argument is known as pronatalism, and draws heavily from highly neoliberal interpretations of economic development which blindly (and often fallaciously) equate faster economic development with higher populations. This philosophy also translates into government policy such as incentives for more children, and is contrasted sharply and starkly with antinatalism. This is not only bad for the environment, but is bound to put a heavy strain on natural resources. Such people have also invoked the idea of a “demographic dividend” from time to time. This concept is sometimes heavily misunderstood, and is somewhat of a misnomer. According to the idea of a demographic dividend, sometimes known as the demographic gift, the economy of a country stands to benefit if it has a large number of people, or a large proportion of the population in the working age group. However, there is a caveat here; people must be sufficiently trained and skilled to contribute meaningfully to the economy. Studies have repeatedly shown that parents with smaller families tend to take care of their children better and educate them better. This idea and notion has also been reinforced with data from countries such as China and South Korea. Children born to such parents are then also able to contribute to government taxes better, and even take care of their parents better in such cases. Therefore, all dimensions of any issue must be taken into account and consideration at all times, with data and case studies culled from all parts of the world, and from all cultures, and not just from one narrow geographical region. While we do agree that extremely low birth rates can have negative economic consequences, India is nowhere near that stage yet. In most Indian states, total fertility rates are around 1.7 to 1.8 children per woman (a rate or figure most people would consider ideal), while in some other states, total fertility rates are even higher than that. If birth rates fall to much, much lower levels, than can we begin to worry. Let us not put the cart before the horse.

It is indeed very difficult to define or determine what constitutes an ideal total fertility rate, or a low fertility rate, but we believe it is always necessary to take a local-specific approach. There can be no one size fits all approach. This realization lies at the heart of our strategy. This realization would also, in our view, lead to the fixation and the determination of what we may call the “Ideal TFR”. This we believe, must be fixed by local and national governments in different contexts, and must be determined using a localized and a bottom up approach. It may also be revised from time to time. The Ideal TFR, we could be determined by several factors such as the following. 

1.       Population density of a particular state, country, or region, including a consideration of interstate and intrastate variations, and current growth rates in population. 

2.       Environmental conditions (Vulnerability and susceptibility to global warming) For example, countries like India and the Maldives are generally considered to be more exposed to the dangers of global warming than Russia.

3.       Natural resources: The availability or non-availability of different types and different forms of natural resources must also always be taken into account and consideration. Examples of this include arable land, rainfall, and groundwater availability.   

4.       Economic factors: Economic factors such as per capita income, and current or anticipated standards of living would also be a useful determinant.

5.       Geopolitical factors: Last but not the least geopolitical factors such as the geopolitical stability or the geopolitical instability in the neighbourhood, including perceived threats of aggression must also always be taken into account and consideration at all times.  

We also propose that that the terms “Population management”, and “Demographic management” be popularized, as these would be far more handy and comprehensive than more restrictive terms such and birth control or population control.  Factors comprising population management would comprise and encompass a wider variety or local and overarching non-local factors too. As always we need bottom up research, bottom up gestation of ideas and thought processes – not those that are slavishly and mindlessly borrowed from other contexts and cultures- this realization is the cornerstone of our approach, and forms the bedrock of our philosophy. This approach can also if properly conceptualized and executed, provide a fulcrum and a springboard for meaningful action and progress, and could lead to faster and more equitable development benefiting a larger cross-section of the population. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]

Demographically divided world

We live in a demographically highly divided world. Birth rates range from as high as seven children in Niger in Sub Saharan Africa to less than one child per woman in South Korea. The majority of the countries with the highest fertility rates are in Sub Saharan Africa with an average fertility rate of over 4.5 children per woman Countries like Somalia, (6.2 children per woman) Angola (5.8 children per woman), the Democratic Republic of Congo (5.5 children per woman), Mali (5.5 children per woman), Benin (5.4 children per woman), and Senegal (4.3 children per woman). Of all this, Nigeria's fertility rate is most alarming – it has barely decreased from 6.35 in 1960 to 5.3 in 2019, implying that something is seriously wrong. What is extremely worrying and concerning is that Nigeria has a large population base to begin with. In Africa, only Tunisia has reached replacement level fertility, while South Africa is close. South Korea’s total fertility rate was computed at 0.68 children per woman in 2024, while Singapore’s, Taiwan’s, and Macau’s hover at around the one child per woman mark, well below replacement. Japan’s and China’s total fertility rates hover at around the 1.2 children per woman mark. Much of Europe has a fertility of between 1.3 and 1.4 children per woman – there are some outliers and some exceptions. France has a relatively high TFR of 1.7 children per woman, while Italy’s is even lower than the European average at 1.2 children per woman.  The global population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to eight billion in 2022, and is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100 largely driven by the population momentum. This may be somewhat of an underestimation, as we believe, human populations have an innate and intrinsic propensity to increase. There is also a scare that humans will be gradually replaced by Artificial Intelligence, but this fear is largely unfounded and unjustified, at least at present.

Weaknesses of the theory of demographic dividend

There are several fundamental and foundational weaknesses of the theory of demographic dividend, and we present some of them below. Most open minded researchers must be aware of these concepts, and we will believe and argue that no sensible, balanced and objective researcher should advocate unbridled, and no holds barred pronatalism. As a matter of fact, this would be alarmingly dangerous. Readers may also want to research some other concepts such as demographic bombs or demographic threats. These may have different meanings in different contexts and situations:

1.       Quality of human resources

We must understand and bear in mind that fact that superior human resources can create the most central, basic, and powerful strategic competitive advantage possible, and human resources management should be accorded pride of place in economic planning and economic decision making. Alas, and rather unfortunately so, this has not yet happened because most societies are still transitioning from a left-wing mindset to a right wing mindset, and the right kind of theoretical frameworks have not yet fallen into place. According to UNESCO, skilling and quality of education is extremely important. To quote UNESCO: “Those aspects of the educational process involving, in addition to general education, the study of technologies and related sciences, and the acquisition of practical skills, attitudes, understanding and knowledge relating to occupations in various sectors of economic and social life.” The Indian government has also launched the Skill India mission. The Skill India Mission launched by the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship (MSDE) is currently working on establishing one “Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Kendra” in each district of the country, and has established over 800 centres this far. The “Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana” (abbreviated as PMKVY), launched in 2015, provides free short-term skill training to youth along with a monetary incentive for individuals who have successfully completed training programs.

However, as the Author observed, the quality of human resources in India is subpar and is sorely lacking in terms of multifaceted, interdisciplinary and internally consistent skills. Many children could not read or write properly, with very poor performance, in English, (even matriculates lacked the knowledge of basic English words young children would be expected to know) science, mathematics, or general knowledge.  Many are barely employable. In this connection, recent calls for pronatalism in some quarters in India come as an unwelcome and an unpleasant surprise. Do we want to create an Africa like situation in India with millions of unemployable, and unemployed youth? Therefore, not all adults contribute equally to the economy or to the nation. Let us put this into our pipe and smoke it. We need to move from cost arbitrage to skill arbitrage while at the same times providing a multidimensionally broad spectrum of services.. To make matters worse there is an anti-English sentiment in some quarters particularly in the RSS and sections of the BJP. This does not augur or bode well for India. English is the only viable neutral link language. Hindi represents the language of a region of India, and divides on the basis of ethnicity.

Some alarming results from a study we had conducted several years ago, are as follows, along with possible course corrections proposed. Also read our multiple publications on pedagogy published over the years. We also advocate the use of artificial intelligence, robots and computers in education, down to the smallest of villages, though this will take time as infrastructure is barely available or ready support this cause, most important reliable power supply. We also need to create intellectual classes and creative classes at the same time. We had dwelt upon this in detail in our paper on Anthropological Economics:

S.No	Name of person interviewed or cited	Location	Educational Attainment	Blooper	Possible remediation
1	Rajesh (Name changed)	Anantapur district, Andhra Pradesh, India	7th grade (Government school)	Believed in the Flat earth; has no idea it was round	Teach Evolution and Astronomy as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
2	Krishnakumar (Name changed)	West Godavari District, AP	5th grade (Government school)	Believed that the earth was 2000 old. Traced it from the current Gregorian calendar.	Teach Evolution and Anthropological Historiography as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
3	Sreenivasulu (Name changed)	Anantapur, AP	7th grade (Government school)	Sun goes around the earth. Did not know anything about the solar system excepting for some astrology: Education apparently failed him badly.	Teach Astronomy which is barely taught in schools, as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
4	Manish (Name changed)	Bangalore	10th grade (Government school)	Dinosaurs are unscientific; heard of them but did not believe in them. He however, believed in mythology.	Teach Evolution which is barely taught in schools, as an antidote to religious inspired constructs.
5	Dr.Rakesh Kumar (Name changed)	Bangalore	Ph.D	Believed in Pushpaka Vimanas after completing Ph.D	Teach students how to distinguish between science and pseudo-science.
6	Satyapal Singh	Satyapal Singh is India's Minister of State for Human Resource Development responsible for Higher Education.	Post-graduate in Science	Evolution is unscientific	Teach Evolution which is barely taught in schools, as an antidote to religious inspired constructs. Discuss all the evidence available and the lacunae with other models.
7	Dr Zakir Naik	Islamic Preacher	Ph.D	Evolution is unscientific	May have vested interests here. Classes on Anthropological Historiography and the origin of religion may help.
8	Dr. Dinesh Sharma	Deputy Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh	Ph.D	Sita Test tube baby	Ignorance. Teach the concepts of science better. Anthropological Historiography must include the history of science.
9	Tripura CM	Media		Internet in the Epic Age	-do-
10	Zaheeruddin (Name changed)	Silchar, Assam	Class XI (Government school)	Despite being a Muslim, was not sure who Aurangazeb was.	Poor quality of education. Evaluate course contents and teaching methods. Evaluate teacherless training and other methods.
11	Various	Various	Various	The history of copper, bronze or Iron is unknown. The history of the origin of various technologies are unknown.	Remediate as applicable. Evaluate on a case to case basis
12	Various	Various	Various	No concept of time. Basic co-ordinates of time not understood	Focus on basics of history. Read concepts of Twenty-first century historiography

 

2.       Fallacy of composition

The fallacy of composition is a logical fallacy in science that occurs when it is fallaciously assumed that the properties of a whole are the same as the properties of its parts. This usually leads to incorrect conclusions because the collective and distributive properties of a group are not always the same, and a much more detailed analysis may be warranted. Fallacy of composition therefore arises when a compositional analysis of data is ignored, and the breakup of data, particularly in qualitative terms is not analyzed. For example, in a country, we may have a large number of children being born, but their educational attainments or professional qualifications are seldom carefully analyzed and factored into account in an analysis. This is not also often not done because proper theoretical frameworks relating demographics with economics and economic performance have not yet been formally put in place anywhere in the world. As birth rates decline in a society, more skilled labour and more skilled workforce may or may not replace retiring workforce, and we may witness different scenarios in different contexts. Also, less educated parents may give birth to more children, and more educated parents may give birth to less children. Even if the children are well educated, it may affect the enculturation or acculturation process. Refer to our earlier papers on enculturation and acculturation which are well accepted concepts in anthropology and sociology. Less educated parents who work harder and longer hours may not be able to take care of their children and their progeny as well as more established parents do or provide them with the necessary knowledge or expertise.  This is especially true of the girl child. One solution is adoption, but this often needs a change in cultural mindset. Even in countries with high fertility, only a few may benefit, and high fertility may actually boost and perpetuate poverty. It may even boost the number of low-skilled or unskilled resources. This will increase unemployability and decrease employment.

3.       A western-centric model

This theory may also be somewhat western centric in orientation. In countries such as India, ground realities are somewhat different. The country is already overpopulation with a high density of resources, and there is already a strain on resources. Low birth rates in such countries may increase the demand for upskilling of resources, and increase the supply of high quality of resources. This is because the ratio of skilled labour as a percentage of total labour force in countries like India is still extremely low. Therefore, standards of living will eventually rise there in the long term in the scenario of relatively low birth rates. Furthermore, countries like India lie in global warming hotspots, and the consequences of unbridled population growth could be disastrous.

4.       Environment

There is myth of perfectly sustainable development. While the world is racing towards a new zero carbon dioxide emissions environment with coal and to a lesser extent fossil fuels already being phased out, it is a myth that humans will ever be able to live in perfect and absolute harmony with the environment, though they can, and indeed must try. Solar power is vastly better for the environment than unabated coal – by several orders of magnitude and must indeed be promoted at any costs. However, solar cells contain some toxic elements such as nickel and cadmium and must be recycled. Plastics are another nightmare, and so is paper. Bioplastics involve agriculture, and so does bagasse based paper production. While there are indeed solutions to every problem which must be aggressively promote, there is always some trade off involved.  Even lithium ion batteries involve rare earth materials, upcoming sodium ion batteries promise to be a whole lot better though. Electric cars are also only as clear as the power that produces them. We must ditch coal and fossil fuels first. Agriculture degrades the environment and consumes natural resources such as water, and so does livestock and poultry. Some people promote veganism, but this involves cultural changes and may not happen for the most part. The world’s top most polluting industries include aviation, fashion, and construction which may not become green any time soon.  As people get richer and richer, the environmental footprint created by sectors such as aviation will increase rapidly. Therefore, humans will create an environmental footprint always. If humans want to maintain high standards of living, there must be some trade off; socialism has largely failed, but there are other solutions available, both technological and non-technological.

4. Solutions to combat low fertility

There are many textbook and non text book solutions to combat low fertility without raising or boosting birth rates. Many are neat and have stood the test of time. Countries with low fertility have done well economically, and in India the well-developed and industrialized state of Tamil Nadu is a prime example. It is booming as an IT hub and a major manufacturing centre. Countries like Japan, Germany, and the UK too seem to be doing reasonably well. It is only in South Korea that birth rates seem to be dangerously and alarmingly low. Japan has resisted immigration this far; Germany has mostly taken in low-skilled immigrants till date, as has much of Europe. Moderately low fertility may also be beneficial for the economy, as parents invariably and inevitably lavish a great deal of attention to their children bringing them up better. This has been observed and witnessed in many parts of the world including China. Other solutions to low fertility besides improved pedagogical design include immigration, skilling, outsourcing, off shoring, near shoring, workforce automation, industrial robots, artificial intelligence, agricultural drones, farm mechanization, etc. There could of course be many, many more and we may think up of many more in the years and decades to come. After all, it is said that necessity is the mother of invention.

5.       Trade-offs required

A trade-off involves decision making that incorporates a reduction or compromise in quality, quantity, or any other property in exchange for gains in other aspects or properties. To word it differently, a tradeoff is a situation one aspect or property increases, and another resultantly decreases either proportionately or non-proportionately. This approach may also require tweaking of concepts and configurations. This concept has widespread use in the physical and natural sciences, though it can be used in other fields of study as well, including the social sciences. This approach is also widely used in decision making. For example, investors may be willing to lose returns for liquidity or safety of investment. They may also reduce expected or anticipated returns for safety and security. Such an approach and technique can also be used in the design of economic systems. For example, private sector employment may not guarantee job security, but it can lead to rapid growth. Marxists may loathe and frown upon private sector enterprise, but they are losing out on opportunity because of the limited employability of public sector firms. This approach can be used not only in the social sciences which we emphasize on, and specialize in, but in other fields of science as well. For example, automobile manufactures may increase weight of an automobile to ensure safety; however, improved technology may make this trade off irrelevant and redundant, as lighter automobiles can also be safe. Tradeoffs are also central to TRIZ methodology, and we have discussed this elsewhere. Trade-offs are also necessary in population management; we have discussed the concept of epistemic coherentism in a previous paper, and short term requirements must be mapped to medium term and long term requirements and considerations. Local considerations must also be mapped to global considerations at the same time. The benefits of low birth rates therefore far exceed and far outstrip the benefits of high birth rates. We have also proposed concepts such as prioritization, resolution of paradoxes, neo-centrism, aeternitism, and omnimodism in our previous papers. All these concepts will impact the proposals of this paper, and the conclusions reached in this paper in some way or the other, and to some degree or the other. [10] [11] [12]

What is the way out?

We need to treat low fertility rates as the new normal. We believe that low fertility rates are the new normal for the most part except in extreme, unusual and unnatural cases such as South Korea where birth rates are extremely and abysmally low- in South Korea, the total fertility rate has been hovering at around the 0.68 children per woman mark. Social and cultural anthropologists must counter propaganda from capitalists as it arises. There is also of course a fallacy of composition which forms the core meat of this paper. There is a fallacy of composition both with and across regions. The former is particularly pronounced in case of developing countries where there are different sociocultural and socioeconomic groups.

What is pronatalism?

Pronatalism refers to the general idea or belief that human reproduction is an extremely important goal for human societies regardless of its negative consequences and that birth rates consequently should be as high as possible. Most variants of this approach also call for increasing birth rates in order to boost economic growth regardless of environmental and social consequences. Pronatalism is primarily of two types; the first is pronatalism as a chiefly and primarily personal value.  In such a case, individuals believe in the ideals of pronatalism at a personal level, and make every effort to implement it at a personal realm and domain while only influencing others in a limited way. The second is pronatalism as a policy goal or a policy paradigm. In such a case, governments put forth policies or guidelines to promote high birth rates or otherwise unwanted births regardless of any other types of consequences that may exist. Extreme versions of pronatalism may also condemn abortion, contraceptives, and the use of other birth control measures.

Since the dawn of the twenty-first century, the highly misplaced if not out rightly dangerous threat of a "global demographic collapse" began to take root in the political right, the religious right, and among some venture capitalist circles. This school and train of thought argues that humans will stop reproducing entirely. Not only is this highly fallacious and misleading, but it is also deplorable, and highly condemnable for its alarming tomes. It runs contrary to common sense, and among this proponents rather unfortunately and alarmingly was Elon Musk, who was otherwise concerned about the environment, and preoccupied with environmental issues. Natalism or pronatalism was also promoted by other figures such as Viktor Orban of Hungary, Kevin Dolan, organizer of the Natal Conference, Simone and Malcolm Collins, founders of the website Pronatalist.org, and some others. Many right-wing proponents of pronatalism argue that falling birthrates could lead to economic stagnation, diminished innovation, and an unsustainable burden on social systems due to an aging population. These concerns are not only grossly misplaced but are also highly abominable. This is because such statements can mislead people, and produce millions of unwanted births. There are many ways a society can deal with ageing and other population matters. There are indeed innovative and creative solutions, and these can and must be implemented. We must fight and opposed such knee-jerk reactions or thinking in silos tooth and nail. Hence, this endeavour. Hence, this paper.

The exact opposite of pronatalism is antinatalism, which is the idea of discouraging and being generally unsupportive of increasing the birth rate, at least through artificial means. This ideal may again be fostered, nurtured and cherished at an individual level, or it may take on a governmental approach, with government initiatives rolled out as required. Extreme versions of antinatalism even go to the extent of arguing that humans are a threat to mother earth, and therefore, do not even deserve to exist. Some even argue that humanity must be wiped out. Such positions are also of course extremely rare. The Birth control movement famously and dramatically began in the west through the efforts of Margaret Sanger, Otto Bobsein and others, though by many accounts, she was not entirely agenda free, and supported Eugenics in some form. Pronatalism can be associated with several factors which may include one or more of the following:

Promoting ethnic rivalry

Pronatalism may be used to promote ethnic or regional rivalry. For example, some South Indian states are now increasingly worried that their proportional representation may come down in Indian parliament given the fact that their birth rates are very low in comparison to North Indian states. The solution for this, would of course not to boost birth rates in southern Indian states, but to put pressure on north Indian states which are already reeling from the consequences of high populations to control and restrict their populations. In response or in stark contrast some north Indian states may have wanted to perpetuate their relative clout through the mechanism of Hindi chauvinism.

Nationalism

Pronatalism may be used to promote national identity and foster a sense of national pride. In such as case, governments may fallaciously and erroneously believe that higher populations may increase a nation’s economic, military, and technological clout, hegemony and power. Governments in this case may either make their intentions crystal clear or promote their agendas surreptitiously and clandestinely. It is believed that even governments such as that of Malaysia fell for this trap at one point or the other even though birth rates were relatively high there.

Economic

In such a case, a government might abandon its anti-natalist policies and embrace pronatalist policies in order to boost its work force or its labour force with the mistaken belief that it may automatically and directly boost the economy or yield economic benefits. 

Religion

Many religions may also be considered fundamentally and foundationally pronatalist as they goad their followers to go forth and procreate. Many thinkers also think that Judaism is essentially pronatalist. Similar values are believed to have been carried forward to Islam and other downstream faiths. In Islam, children are considered to be God's blessings and must be nurtured and raised with great care and attention. Some radical Islamic thinkers therefore loathe, or frown upon birth control and family planning. Large families are also supported by many Catholics, some Protestants, and Quiverfulls as well. In spite of all this, fertility rates are decreasing or declining among all communities – this may be ascribed to modernization, and westernization, the two being somewhat different concepts.

Immigration

Pronatalism can be associated with immigration opposition. People want their own ilk and their own flock to grow so that immigration can be avoided. Immigration is also often opposed in many quarters in a nation because it may tilt ethnic composition in favour of immigrants and reduce that native population either in absolute or in relative terms. Concerns about immigration are being raised in many quarters in Europe and the USA, besides some other nations as well. This is believed to alter demographic composition as well as social and cultural values. In Europe, the far-right activist Geert Wilders opposes immigration vehemently and vociferously, and so do some other political parties there. It is feared that immigration will distort the ethnic and religious composition there. Many immigrants also enter the USA illegally mostly via Mexico after crossing the deadly Darien gap, but some also via Canada, and take refuge in sanctuary cities such as New York. 

Maintenance of traditional family structures

Pronatalism is sometimes associated with reinforcing traditional family structures where the husband is responsible for generating the income and the woman is economically dependent on her spouse for her essentials and for her survival. Traditional cultures and traditional societies also sometimes do not agree with the idea of women going out to work. Such cultures may believe that it is the duty of women to procreate and raise children by providing for their needs, and the needs of the rest of the family as well.

Eugenics

Eugenics meaning good genes in Greek, refers to a set of beliefs and practices that aim to improve the genetic quality or the quality of stock of human populations. This doctrine is inherently racist, and presupposes that white individuals are superior to all other humans on earth. The main tool employed by eugenicists is to inhibit the fertility of people and groups that are considered to be inferior, while at the same time, promoting the stocks of humans who are considered to be superior. Therefore, we have different terms such as positive eugenics, which represents the promotion of “good stock,” and negative eugenics, which severely curtains and restricts interbreeding between “defective stock.” Eugenecists may therefore goad select humans to go forth and to multiply. 

Response to low birth rates

Pronatalism has also been promoted in response to declining birth rates in different parts of the world. In the People’s republic of China, the one-child policy was a population and a birth control measure implemented between 1979 and 2015 to curb the country's burgeoning population growth by restricting couples to having only a single child. The program had many social, cultural, economic, and demographic effects which echoed and reverberated throughout society. This program was later gradually withdrawn, and couples are permitted to have as many as three children. Likewise, Russia, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan have also put in place pronatalist measures as the birth rates there are low. This includes maternity leave, child bonuses, child care subsidies, tax rebates, paternity leave, etc. Most of these measures have seldom or scantily worked, and even if they did, the impact or the effect was only temporary. That is why we will always believe and argue that low fertility rates are the new normal and that society and planning policies must be built around them.  Pronatalism is in many ways a dangerous right-wing idea, and must not be promoted where it does not deserve to be promoted. Most experts would concur with this assertion. [13] [14]

Pronatalist groups include pronatalist.org which exaggerates the myth of population or a demographic collapse; at best, we may be entering a slow, long and a gradual phase of population decline. At best, this is several decades away, as populations are still exploding in most of Africa; In Asia, total fertility rates are especially high in the Phillipines, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Israel, and Iraq. Antinatalist groups include proto-antinatalist groups, anti-procreationist groups, etc. Antinatalist individuals include Djuna Barnes, Samuel Beckett, David Benatar, etc. There is an extreme group called voluntary human extinction movement. We do not support such policies. Humans can also help maintain and preserve the planet for other species; we had called this the “Human trusteeship of the planet principle”. Pronatalism is of course associated with right-wing capitalism; right-wing capitalists want to have a large market for their products, goods, and services, and in some cases, are willing to go any length to promote and advance their cause. We can have intermediary positions between the two extremes. But this requires careful, thoughtful and considerate scholarship. It also requires an ideology-free and an agenda-free approach.

What is composition fallacy in science?

The fallacy of composition is an extremely important logical fallacy in science that does not, and rather unfortunately so, gets the attention it deserves or is often given the short-shrift; simply put, it is a fallacy that occurs when one falsely assumes that a property of a part of a whole is also entirely true of the whole. This can lead to incorrect conclusions because the properties of a group may not be the same as the properties of its individual parts. Likewise, the population also may not be entirely homogenous, and there may be wide variations in it. For example, the total fertility rate of Niger is ten times that of South Korea. Likewise, the population density of nations varies by several thousands of orders of magnitude right from Bangladesh to Greenland or Iceland. This fallacy may also be found in many aspects and endeavours in the social sciences. The fallacy of division occurs when people assume that if something is true of a group, then it's also true of each individual in the group. All these aspects need to be borne in mind and scholarship or policy recommendations initiated accordingly. [15]

What is population composition fallacy?

Therefore, to extend the above analogy in meaningful and in practical directions, population cannot be treated as a monolithic unit. There is a myth of homogeneity of populations of most populations are not entirely homogenous. There are wide differentials particularly in developing countries like India. Many such countries have elite populations, and very poor people has well. In India we have had a caste system which is mostly dying out now.  Such artificial systems exacerbate divisions greatly. Likewise, the USA and South Africa are highly diverse (both culturally and socially) as well, and are highly non-homogenous. Different regions have different problems, and we can neither have oversimplified diagnoses nor one size fits all solutions.  Given that there are wide variations and differentials between populations in developing countries such as India, boosting education systems will give such nations a big legup. [16] [17]

Sociocultural groups

The identification of Socio-cultural groups forms the starting point of our study. We propose that populations may be first divided into socio-cultural groups, though this hierarchy is by no means rigid. A sociocultural group is one which is defined after a consideration of both social and cultural factors, and normally takes into consideration traditions, customs, lifestyles, beliefs, habits and cultural patterns present in a group. It also seeks to understand human behaviour and mind-orientation from a socio-cultural perspective, and understand how these impact educational, employment and economic factors as well. This concept is also related to the idea of a sociocultural system which is a human population in its ecological context and a subsystem of a larger ecological system comprising interrelated cultures. A sociocultural system typically comprises of society, culture, and allied systems. In 1979, Marvin Harris proposed a universal structure of sociocultural systems. He mentioned infrastructure (production and population), structure (which includes political organizations, hierarchies, castes etc.), and superstructure (which includes beliefs, values, norms). The idea is also related to Systems theory which originated in the works of Bertalanffy and others, and was extended to various domains in social sciences by Taclott Parsons, Roy Rappaport, Niklas Luhmann and others.  It would be a myth to claim that this kind of an analysis would hold good for developing countries alone. This paradigm could be fruitfully applied even in multi-cultural societies such as the USA where different cultural groups such as whites, blacks and Hispanics exist, and in other contexts as well.  [18]

Socioeconomic groups

A socio-economic group is a group emerging from the interaction of social and economic factors. A socioeconomic class is a class which is determined taking into account, a group’s economic and social status in relation to other groups. Characteristics that determine socioeconomic status include employment, education, and income. Sometimes, age and gender are also factored into an analysis, but there are no rigid rules, and the requirements of different studies are often the sole determining factors for categorization. Thus, categorizations and interpretations may vary widely from study to study, and this must be actually encouraged subject to potential problems that may be encountered in cross-sectional and cross-cultural comparisons.

From our perspective, Socio-cultural groups may then be broken up into socio-economic group such that each socio-cultural group comprises one or more socio-economic groups. Thus, the entire population is broken up into socio-economic groups for the purposes of our study.

Thus, we strongly believe that classification of populations into socio-cultural groups and socio-economic groups must be the starting point in any meaningful analysis in Anthropological economics. This kind of analysis may again be bounded or unbounded, as these can be aggregated either at a global level or the level of a political unit such as a country. We expect that the latter would be more commonly used in most studies. At times, an intersectional analysis may be carried out where a sociocultural group straddles different political entities. Examples of these could be Baluchi speakers who are present in both Pakistan and Iran, and Kashmiri groups who are present in both Pakistan and India.  Sociocultural groups and socioeconomic groups must also be defined as granularly as possible, for a better and a more meaningful analysis, though aggregation may be attempted at times. E.g., aggregation of Nicobarese tribes into one sociocultural unit instead of studying them separately.

Occupation groups within Socio-economic groups

We may also define Occupational groups within Socio-economic groups. These groups typically engage in a primary occupation or a set of closely inter-related occupations, and are characterized by similar educational attainments and a relative homogeneity of skills. However, occupational mobility may occur, at varying rates, and this would be a function of the culture to accept and adapt to change. In most cases, socioeconomic groups must be associated with primary or core economic activities, secondary economic activities, or peripheral economic activities. Wherever, classifications cannot be readily or easily be made, fieldwork may form the basis for classifications; thus, preliminary classifications and hierarchies may be refined through fieldwork.

Creative classes

Several indices have been developed from time to time to measure the creative component of cultures. Prominent examples that readily spring to mind include the GlobalCreativity Index or CGI developed by Roger Martin and Richard Florida which ranks countries based oncreativity, technology, talent and cultural productivity. Other attempts have been made to assess the“Creative Class” in different countries, which is a class thatis a drivingforce in economic development of a country. Such classes are bound to be more prominent in developedcountries, but many developing countries now have large middle classes. This is akin to an intellectual class, but the outputs of the creative class can be more directlyco-related with the economic growth in the country(given that they represent practical pursuits) and plays a role in determining economic output as well. In developing countries and leastdeveloped countries, creativity is often still low, due to low levels of education,out-dated or outmoded education systems, poor teaching techniques, poverty, backwardideologies and an over-sized role of religion.This is also associated with concepts such as the brain drain or the flight of talent, the reverse brain drain or the return of talent, and the flight of capital due to the loss of talent. Thus, Creative classes must be assessed in a two-way analysis. The attribute of society that produced creative classes must be understood, and the attributes of successful individuals also assessed from a cultural perspective. Similarly, the dearth or paucity of creative classes in a cultural context must also be studied in relation to cultural factors. The presence of creative classes will play a major role in boosting economic development, and education systems must be designed to help manifest latent talent.

 

Intellectual classes

An intellectual is a person who engages in intellectual endeavours such as research, critical thinking and self-reflection about society. Some intellectuals may present abstract, philosophical, and impractical ideas, while some others may actively strive for the betterment of society. The intellectual and the scholarly classes are often tightly inter-related: an intellectual may be a professorguidingresearchers or scientists, or may work in industry or an institution of repute.

Intellectuals typically engage in:

1.       Conceptualization and development of abstract ideas and theories;

2.       Producing intellectual and scientific capital in various fields or

3.       Artistic or creative output which may contribute to the soft power of a nation.

Intellectuals often propose practical solutions for burning problems and issues that plague society, and gain authority and respectability in the long-term. Intellectualspossess qualities of mind and character that promote creativity, critical thinking, commitment to the welfare of society and the pursuit of truth. The strength of the intellectual class varies widely from society to society. In most countries, however, the intellectual class is weak and is often influenced by dogma, ideology or political beliefs. Often, Euro-centric and western-centric paradigms are applied, regardless of whether they are suitable in alien contexts, or not. The strength of the Intellectual class in a society is measured through Intellectual Capital. This concept first evolved in the context of organizations, but was subsequently extended to include cultures and nations. 

Entrepreneurial classes

Entrepreneurship may be defined as the ability of a culture to foster, nurture and generate entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurship is the ability found and successfully run a business enterprise. This often requires leadership ability, business acumen, technical knowhow, and marketing ability which may be found in different degrees in different cultures. Entrepreneurship is characterized by risk-taking, innovation, visionary leadership, and technical expertise. On the other hand, a Capitalist Class isasmall group of individuals in a country which owns and controls the bulk of privatecorporate wealth, and generates employment for a large percentage of the population.

Human capital

Human capital refers to the intangible skills, knowledge, talent, intelligence and experience possessed by an individual or population, and is often studied in relation to a culture. It also refers to the factors of production arising from human capital, which are used to create goods, services and ideas. Human capital is also often measured in terms of creativity, pragmatism and resilience. It can also be bolstered by paying adequate attention to health and education. The idea of human capital can be traced back to the time of Adam Smith, but modern ideas of Human capital were popularized by American Economist Gary Becker, Jacob Mincer, Theodore Schultz and others. Gary Becker merged sociology and Economics, showing how sociological factors influence economic behaviour. He also defined Human capital as “activities that influence future monetary and psychic income by increasing resources in people.” (Becker 1994) His philosophy can be summed up in one sentence, “Economy is the art of making the most of life.” Human Capital theorists have always argued that an adequate thrust on human capital could alone ensure long-term economic growth, and that return on investment on Human capital could also be measured through robust economic growth. On the other hand, Karl Marx proposed another interpretation of Human capital called labour power wherein workers sold their labour to capitalists and were in turn exploited. A related field of study is labour economics. This field seeks to understand the functioning and the dynamics of the market for different types of labour that go into the making of a successful economy through a combination of microeconomic and macroeconomic techniques. 

Human capital is bolstered through the science of Human Development which seeks to understand how different people’s latent capabilities and accomplishments remain at a certain level or change with the passage of time. It is also related to the Capabilities approach. According to the UNDP, “Human development is the process of enlarging people’s choices, which in turn allow them to lead a long, healthy, happy, rewarding and fulfilling life, to be educated, to enjoy a decent standard of living, political freedom, other guaranteed human rights, and ingredients of self-respect.” Other Economists such as Paul Romer have proposed innovation-led Economic growth models, and endogenous growth models (as opposed to exogenous growth models such as the HarrodDomar model and the SolowSwan model which base growth on savings and technological progress) which focus on innovation and creativity, and propose macroeconomic models based on microeconomic foundations. In 2018, the World Bank published the Human Capital Index or HCI, and attempted to rank nations on the basis of Human Capital Utilization. As per this ranking, most European and many Asian nations are ranked at the top, while most Sub-Saharan nations, and many other Asian nations are ranked at the bottom. Many other approaches for measuring Human capital are proposed from time to time. 

From our perspective, Human potential should remain relatively constant everywhere, but is utilization would depend on social, cultural, religious, economic and historical to state a few. Thus, Human capital utilization would vary widely from region to region, and the onus would be on governments to ensure that Human capital is utilized to the fullest extent possible, and human energies are channelized for the greater good. Therefore, there is a lot of untapped human and creative potential in developing nations – this arises from low quality or poor quality education systems. We must tap or exploit this first.

Cultural capital

In sociology, cultural capital comprises the culturally-derived assets of a person which may include his education, intellect, style of speech, mannerisms and interpersonal skills that complement his other core skills and that accelerate social mobility in a highly stratified and differentiated society. Cultural capital therefore includes the accumulated self-learnt or culturally-transmitted knowledge that bestows social status and power in a given society. This definition appears to be somewhat limited and Euro-centric by our standards, and cultural capital should also at a broad level include those differentiating cultural factors that promote sustained and wide-ranging economic growth. In "Cultural Reproduction and Social Reproduction" (1977), Pierre Bourdieu and Jean-Claude Passeron originally presented the idea of cultural capital to explain differences in academic achievement of children in France, and further developed the concept in the essay "The Forms of Capital" (1985), and in the book “The State Nobility: Elite Schools in the Field of Power.” (1996)

According to Bourdieu, there are three types of cultural capital, namely, embodied capital,objectified capital, and Institutionalised capital. Embodied cultural capital comprises the knowledge that is consciously acquired or passively inherited, through enculturation and cultural tradition.Objectified cultural capital comprises the person's cultural property that can be sold, transferred or transmitted for economic profit.On the other hand, institutionalized cultural capital comprises an institution's formal recognition of a person's cultural capital, usually through academic qualifications or professional memberships. A well-developed corporate culture usually gives expression to an individual’s cultural capital, and facilitates the conversion of cultural capital into economically useful capital. Cultural capital remains virtually uptapped in most developing countries, and governments must try to tap these first- therefore, there remains a wide variations and unnatural gap between developed and developing countries. We must try to bridge this first. Governments must try to accord this top priority; we had also spoken about cultural limits and anthropological limits in a previous paper; these must be bridged as far as practically possible, though there could indeed be many surmountable and non-surmountable obstacles.

Social capital

Social capital refers to the effective functioning of social groups through well-developed interpersonal relationships, evolving from shared values, a common sense of identity, mutual trust, cooperation, and a feeling of reciprocity. Social capital is a measure of the value of resources, including both tangible assets (This may include public spaces and private property) and intangible assets (for example, people), and its function in promoting social good. Social capital has been used to explain the optimal performance of different groups, the value derived from strategic and mutually beneficial inter-community alliances, and the healthy growth and development of communities.[19] [20]

Dangers of population growth

There are a large number of dangers associated with population growth. One aspect and one factor that must be borne in mind is that population size is the foundation upon which the entire edifice of a nation, both economic and non-economic must be built. Future population sizes are also naturally built on current population sizes, and it is to that extent that population growth rates are geometric. Larger and larger current populations will have a ripple and a domino effect, and will unidirectionally impact and affect future populations as well. Population growth can have many dangers, including but not naturally limited to environmental degradation, deforestation, pollution, loss of biodiversity, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, food insecurity, disease spread, poverty and indigence, lack of open spaces, and spaces available for economic development. Such growth is also associated unfortunately with an unnaturally increasing environmental foodprint that can have adverse and unintended consequences. [21]

Why pronatalism may not even work

There many unfortunate dangers and unhealthy after effects associated with building models based on pronatalism; this are in sum, and in a nutshell, as follows. Such programs, even if attempted to be implemented or enforced, may not lead to meaningful effects, or effects that are of a lasting and a permanent nature:

1.       Outside the realm of governmental affairs

Pronatalism is generally seen as being outside the purview and domain of the government’s affairs this is largely true of most, if not all democratic nations. Child rearing is generally seen to be the prerogative of the parents, and parents must take the call on how many children to raise based on their own innate desires or interests. This will also be dependant on economic, social, cultural and religious factors. Birth rates will indeed continue to fall, as they have been falling for several decades now, and this must be treated as the new normal. The term “new normal” was coined during the 2008 financial crisis that rocked the USA, and many other parts of western capitalistic societies, to refer to the unfortunate economic, cultural, and social downturn representative of that period. The term has then since been applied retrospectively to colonialism, territorial expansionism, world wars, several regional conflicts, etc. Even forced family planning programs are outside the governments domains, and sphere of influence. Compulsory sterilization, which is also known as forced or coerced sterilization, refers to a government-driven or government-enforced program to forcibly sterilize a the general population or a specific group of people. This was infamously practiced by Indira Gandhi and here son Sanjay Gandhi during the emergency. We also for example, had the famous or the infamous concept of the “Big Brother” as evidenced by George Orwell’s novel Nineteen Eighty-four. This book dealt with the perils of authoritarianism and totalitarianism.

2.       Attempts to boost birth rates artificially may not even work

Such programs may not even work not may they be desirable, given that the factors driving population decline are rather deep-rooted. The causes for low fertility, truth be told are as follows:

1.       Educated parents want to educate their children better so that they can reap material benefits, and push their children up in life

2.       Increasing women’s rights, women’s emancipation and women’s awareness

3.       Keeping up with the Joneses – parents want children to have status in society due to the value placed by society on achievement and accomplishment

4.       Society frowns upon parents with more than two children

5.       Increasing cost of education and childcare

6.       Increased or heightened family planning awareness arising from governmental and non-governmental programmes

7.       Increased or heightened environmental awareness, but this is tied to education levels as well

8.       Child labour laws that prevent children from working

9.       Presence of social security systems that reduce or eliminate the need for parents to depend on their children in their old age

10.   Children do not wish to support their parents in their old age due to cultural shifts, and parents consider it too risky to depend on their children as well

11.   Higher individual savings arising from higher economic standards

12.   Parents are too busy with their careers and cannot raise kids

13.   Women also increasingly work and cannot afford to take career breaks

14.   Late marriages due to parents being busy with their own careers, or pursuing educational goals

15.   Substance and alcohol abuse among parents

16.   Preference for the male child declines as societies evolve and become more economically prosperous

17.   High divorce rates lead to the breakup of the family system, and many women may no longer choose to raise kids

18.   Lowered fertility count and infertility arising from lifestyle changes such as stress and obesity

19.   Absence of parental support systems in some societies – grandparents no longer want to take care of their grandchildren

20.   Decreasing job security, and rising unemployment 

21.   Contraceptives – the prevalence of a wide variety contraceptives

22.   Abortion

23.   Pre-birth sex determination tests in some cases

24.   People wish to remain single as raising families is considered to be too much of a pressure and a burden

25.   Lower child mortality means that people choose to have less number of kids

Therefore most societies move willy-nilly from Stage X to Stage Y, and to begin with unwanted pregnancies are avoided. These concepts are extremely important and must be understood and carefully considered by planners as well. Even if attempts to reverse low fertility are imposed, they may not be long-term and sustaining ones. Let us now revisit some case studies drawn from across the world.

Case of Japan

Japan's birth rate has been declining slowly since the 1950s, though the pace and the rate of decline has accelerated in recent years. The number of births in Japan has been declining since the 1990s as more and more people either choose to remain unmarried or get married later on in life - In 2023 Japan’s total fertility rate reached a record low. The TFR in 2022 was 1.26 children per woman, which is way below the replacement.  This has already led to an ageing society, which will continue to further age as time progresses. Japanese authorities have announced initiatives to raise the country’s total fertility rate, by formulating a “Children's Future Strategy” to boost child-related spending greatly. Such measures have largely failed as Japan’s fertility rate continues to drop. This may be somewhat unfortunate given that Japan has so much to contribute to the rest of the world.

 

Case of South Korea

South Korea's fertility crisis has escalated and snowballed into a major demographic issue that has led to a rapid decline in the country's population. The fertility rate has fallen to an all-time low of less than 0.7 children per woman in 2024, 0.68 children per woman to be precise, and the country is taking steps to encourage child-rearing.  These include paid incentives and paid maternity leaves which do not appear to have paid off. There have been virtually no birth rate increases since the 1980’s, barring minor ones. South Korea’s total fertility rate is now absolutely the lowest in the world, and the nation is now staring at a fertility abyss. This is rather unfortunate given that the nation has so much to contribute to the world technologically.

 

Case of Europe

Europe, both western and eastern Europe have experienced a decline in fertility rates since 1960. The number of children born in the European Union has been decreasing, and the total fertility rate (TFR) has been dropping to stabilize at levels below 1.5 children per woman in a majority of cases. Italy, Spain, and Greece have among the lowest fertility rates in the world, while France’s is somewhat high, though still below replacement.  The UK’s TFR stands today at around 1.44 children per woman, while Germany’s is even lower. Germany’s TFR has been declining gradually barring minor periods of slow increase. This shows that programs to increase the birth rate through artificial inducements have mostly not worked.

Case of USA

The general fertility rate in the United States has been slowly and gradually declining, even reaching historic lows. USA’s fertility rates have however remained higher than in most other developing countries. USA’s birth rates have mostly been offset by high immigration, and USA mostly remains a highly dynamic economy.  Canada and Australia also have low birth rates, though there is large inward immigration in these two countries as well. Russia also has demonstrated relatively low birth rates, and the government there has initiated mostly unsuccessful ones to boost them.

3.       Less educated people may procreate more

There are many unintended consequences of attempting to boost birth rates through inducements or other artificial methods. For example, less educated people may procreate more, and these may determine or adversely and negatively impact the quality of human resources owing to different enculturation patterns and processes. The root of this observation may lie in the fact that less educated people may bear less children only due to government mandates or directives. On the other hand, more affluent children may bear less children due to lifestyle choices. According to several recent reports from India, a growing number of affluent, urban people in India are choosing not to marry, with the "Youth in India Report 2022" issued by the National Statistics Office showing that around 23% of young Indians are not interested in marriage; this is a significant increase from previous figures. The trend is now spilling over to less affluent families, and there are many eligible bachelors even in places as far apart as Punjab and Kashmir. The key reasons why some people in India are not marrying include changing societal norms, breakup of family values, economic concerns, desire for autonomy or independence, declining role played by parents, urbanization, lifestyle changes, acceptance of divorce etc. Therefore, pronatalist policies may skew the skill divide, and lead to a less skilled economy. This may lead to unproductive resources. This is very much a possibility, and a strong one.

4.       May send wrong signals to other states or regions

Family planning is just taking off in most parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This is because these societies are more culturally and religiously conservative, and modernization  has not entered these societies in a big way. On the other hand, birth rates are already low in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Kashmir and elsewhere. Calls for pronatalism may send wrong or adverse feedback to people in states like Uttar Pradesh or Bihar, while failing in their intended regions.

5.       Other problems associated with high birth rates

There are other problems associated with high birth rates include environmental issues, besides other social and cultural issues. There is a myth of sustainable development as always, because, every activity has an environmental footprint. Human environmental footprint will continue to rise as societies prosper and flourish. For example, Bangladesh has a low

6.       There are many approaches to deal with low fertility

Population ageing can be managed through a wide variety of different approaches. The following are some of the more common approaches that can be adopted, or are already being adopted by many nations, though there may be a couple of others as well:

1.       Automation

Automation refers to a wide array of novel and contemporary technologies that aim to reduce human intervention in manual and mechanical processes that require minimum skill or mind application, through the automation of tedious and repetitive manual tasks. Automation was achieved in large-scale factories and large scale industrial production from the middle of the nineteenth century onwards. By the 1980’s, computers and robots had also become popular. Today the new buzzword is artificial intelligence and machine learning both of which are set to revolutionize how we think and communicate. Automation has been achieved by means of mechanical, electrical, hydraulic, pneumatic, and electronic devices, usually in combination with one another. Complicated systems, such as modern industrial enterprises, aeroplanes, automobiles and ships may use harmonious combinations of all of these techniques to a great overall effect. The benefits of automation may include labor savings, wastage reduction, reduced electricity consumption, savings in material costs, reduction of overheads, and improved product quality. Automation is inevitable in today’s world. It will happen regardless of whether a labour pool exists or not. It is necessary for human beings to wake up to this reality.

2.       Robots

A robot is a machine usually one that is programmed by a computer—which can carry out a complex series of actions automatically, or with minimal human intervention. Robots are often human like in shape to convey a sense of accomplished intelligence to the general public, but the emphasis is mostly on functionality, and not aesthetics. Robotics is a distinct and a rapidly evolving field of study that deals with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots, as well as computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing. Robots may be autonomous or semi-autonomous and range from humanoids such as Sophia, Atlas, Honda's Advanced Step in Innovative Mobility (or ASIMO), R2-D2 and TOSY's TOSY Ping Pong Playing Robot (or TOPIO) to medical operating robots,, industrial robots, dog therapy robots, patient assist robots, collectively programmed swarm robots, UAV drones such as General Atomics MQ-1 Predator, and even microscopic nano robots. We also have different types of robots such as articulated robots, autonomous robots, Cartesian coordinate robots, cylindrical coordinate robots, spherical coordinate robots, SCARA robots, and delta robots. An industrial robot is used for manufacturing, and is automated, programmable and capable of complex multidimensional movements to mimic humans as far as possible. Agricultural robots are increasingly being used in picking, harvesting, sowing, and other mundane and repetitive tasks. These often save farmers money in the form of labour costs.

3.       Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence was founded as an academic discipline in 1956 by John MacCarthy, and the field went through several iterations and subsequent major revolutionary breakthroughs. Artificial intelligence refers to intelligence or near intelligence exhibited by machines, particularly by advanced computer systems that mimic human learning patterns and processes such as reasoning and problem solving abilities, planning and decision making, and learning abilities. Artificial intelligence enabled computers also perceive their environment and use learning and intelligence to take intelligent actions for the welfare of society and human good. We also have concepts such as weak AI, strong AI, narrow AI, general AI, and super AI, and these are terms most researchers must be aware of. Artificial intelligence may eventually take on many mundane tasks and reduce the need for human intervention greatly.  This is a field with immense scope and potentially, though it will never perhaps replace human intelligence entirely.

4.       Agricultural drones

A drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle or a flying object with no human pilot, crew, or passengers on it. Drones were developed relatively recently and became widespread and popular only in the twenty-first century. Drones are used in various applications such as  aerial photography, surveillance, emergency response and disaster relief. An agricultural drone is an unmanned aerial vehicle used in agriculture operations, mostly in scouting, yield optimization and in monitoring crop yield, crop growth, crop health, field conditions, and crop production. Agricultural drones provide information on crop growth stages, crop health, and soil variations. They are also used in planting and seeding and can bring down water consumption, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption greatly, and the usage of agricultural drones can greatly bring down labour requirement. This is true because agricultural activities consume a great deal of labour. Agricultural drones represent a significant step up from the early farm mechanization efforts of the early part of the twentieth century when tractors and harvesters were primarily used. 

5.       Outsourcing

Outsourcing is an increasingly common business strategy and technique in which companies make use external entities or captive units, particularly those located in foreign lands to carry out business tasks, (either high end ones or low end ones) that could otherwise be handled internally using internal resources, albeit at a greater cost. The term outsourcing, (which came from the phrase outside resourcing), originated in the 1980’s, and has been widely used ever since. It has now become a buzzword and a catchphrase as well, and is widely practiced by European and American companies. Outsourcing brings along with it many business benefits, primarily cost savings. The exact opposites of outsourcing are inshoring and insourcing. Outsourcing may eventually become more high end, and we have concepts such as cost arbitrage and skill arbitrage here.

6.       Offshoring

Offshoring is likewise becoming an increasingly popular activity these days – offshoring involves the relocation of a business process or a part thereof from one country to another—these may include core operational processes, such as production and manufacturing, or supporting processes, such as finance, payroll, administration, and accounting. Offshoring is particularly lucrative when there is a significant wage difference between the source and destination countries, and when remote work is possible for the job without compromising on quality. In-house offshoring is said to take place when the offshored work is done by means of an internal or captive entity. Nearshoring is a form of offshoring in which the other country is relatively close such as one sharing a border. In such cases, linguistic and cultural similarities are often leveraged in order to accomplish a smooth operation.

7.       Upskilling

Upskilling requires teaching an employee additional employable skills. This may also require upgrading qualifications by means of additional degrees or certifications. Upskilling is constantly carried out by employers, and may be either mandated or encouraged. In many cases, employees upskill of their own accord in order to take advantage of new and better employment opportunities that are available. A declining workforce means that countries must make their workforce more employable through upskilling. This can lead to a wide variety of economic benefits such as improved and faster economic growth. The Indian government has also of late promoted skilling, upskilling and reskilling through the promulgation of several programs.

8.       Altered economic focus

Whenever population ageing occurs, countries may change their economic development model and growth strategy, and tweak it accordingly. For example, countries may shift from labour intensive jobs to capital intensive jobs. Labour intensive jobs are those that require large amounts of labour, while capital intensive jobs are those jobs that do not require large amounts of labour – wherever labour is required, it may have already been automated, or emphasis is placed on high-skilled or super-specialized labour that is not readily available in poorer countries. Therefore, employment must be boosted in certain sectors, particularly high skilled sectors and capital intensive sectors. This will give ageing countries a distinct advantage over other countries.

9.       Harnessing the silver dividend

The silver dividend refers to the economic and social benefits that are reaped from an aging population, and the knowledge and unique skills resident only in an older and more experienced workforce. The silver dividend is realized when the elderly population remains active and engaged in the economy. It is quite similar to the demographic dividend, which stems from the presence of a large working-age population. 

10.   Harnessing the gender dividend

The gender dividend is the economic growth that can result from investing in women’s education, and empowering them in various aspects of society. It can be achieved by increasing women's participation in the workforce, and increasing the education levels, skilling and employability of women. This can also increase when fertility rates are relatively low, as more and more women are engaged in the workforce, and contribute greatly to the economy.

11.   Better education

Pedagogy, which is the science of learning and teaching both theoretical and practical, also investigates how learning outcomes are influenced by, the social, political, and psychological development of learners in a wide variety of social and cultural settings. Pedagogy, as a formal academic field of study and research, probes and investigates how knowledge and skills are imparted in an educational context, and studies the processes of interactions that take place during learning, and bidirectional influences with other extraneous aspects and factors including both cultural and non-cultural ones.

12.   Better child care

Childcare, which is also commonly known as day care, is the care and supervision of one or more children, who are toddlers, infants or prepubescent children by specially trained caregivers and caretakers. Childcare and daycare are required when both parents are working, and are unable to pamper or devote attention to children. Childcare is a very broad and a generic term that covers a wide variety of skilled and trained professionals, institutions, activities, and social and cultural entities. Professional caregivers include creches, daycare, preschools and schools or a home-based care such nannies or family daycare.

13.   Raising retirement age

Retirement are may also be suitably raised as required. The common retirement age in most counties or societies is between 58 and 60 years old. However, this may be increased to as much as 65 or 70 years of age. In most countries however, employment is provided by private entities who may take suitable steps in this regard. Professionals may also not fully retire; they may only semiretire, and continue to work as consultants.

14.   Adoption 

Adoption is a process whereby a person legally takes over or assumes the custodianship of a child, from that person's biological or legal parents who may be either alive or deceased. This may happen when a child’s biological parents are deceased, or are otherwise unable to take care of the child owing to financial or non-financial restrictions., and handicaps  Legal adoptions permanently transfer all rights and responsibilities, along with filiation and custodianship, from the biological parents to the adopting parents. Unlike guardianship, adoption brings about a permanent change in status and is often accompanied by societal recognition, though this is by no means always necessary.

15.   Immigration

Immigration is the process of moving to a new country to become a permanent resident or citizen. It involves following the rules and regulations of the destination country. Immigration may be either legal or illegal. It may be temporary or permanent and reversible or irreversible. It may involved highly skilled labour or unskilled labour. Immigrants may also be granted temporary or permanent residency, or in some cases, citizenship.  Immigration can have social, economic, and cultural benefits for states, though it can also lead to frustration or strain. Of late millions of people from Asia and Africa have moved into North America and Europe either legally or illegally. The benefits of migration or the absence thereof, has become a raging debate there, and has become fraught with political overtones.

Additionally, the Brain drain can also be reversed by creating a reverse brain drain.  Brain drain is the emigration of highly educated and skilled people from one country to another who often leave their nature country too look for greener pastures. It can also refer to the great loss of these people to a country especially if highly skilled and talented ones leave. Whenever this situation is reversed, a reverse brain drain results. Many countries have been taking steps to reverse brain drain. India has been offering OCI cards, and some nations have been offering dual citizenship.

Other issues:

Japan and China are prosperous and so is Tamil nadu

Japan and China are prosperous and so is Tamil Nadu. Many countries with relatively benign and moderately low birth rates are still flourishing and thriving. Other examples include European countries and other Asian tigers. They can have fun when it lasts. Even subsequently, there are many solutions available at their disposal. We need to analyze each country on a case to case basis. The continued or continuing success of these countries will rest on their ability to tap their human potential, and also strategize their economic development models accordingly. Immigration can also of course help, but this is by no means the only solution. Read all our papers – the entire collection of them together – for greater conceptual clarity.

India has a different pension system from the west

India also has a different pension system from the west. We have no 401 (k) here. Pensions are generally given out by state governments, and these are presently rather small. Pensions will of course increase as the country becomes more prosperous. Other than that we have provident funds. Technical specialists must identify the similarities between Indian and western pension systems, and proceed accordingly.

Does not automatically improve the quality of education, or the quality of human resources

Another problem with trying to increase birth rates artificially – this is anyways dubious- is that it does not automatically improve the quality of education, or the quality of human resources. This should come across as a simple no-brainer to most. 

Lower birth rates may lead to what we have called an “Evergreen demographic boon”;  This is because of the following factors

 

1.       Parents take care of their children better when they have a fewer children; refer to “Theory X and Theory Y” in our previous publication. This can also be validated through ethnography and field work.

2.       Better quality human resources: This will in a vast majority of cases lead to better quality human resources.

3.       Sustainable development: This will also lead to more sustainable development.  

4.       Ecologically friendly development: This will also lead to more ecologically friendly development  

5.       Urban renewal: This will also lead to urban renewal as there will be more space for urban development.  

6.       Less transportation bottlenecks: This will lead to less transportation problems, and ease out transportation bottlenecks.  

7.       More land for afforestation and reforestation:  There will naturally be more land available for afforestation and reforestation. This will help societies reclaim the earth from human intervention slowly and eventually.

8.       More equitable intergenerational wealth transfer: This will lead to more equitable intergenerational wealth transfer as more assets will be available to each child per capita.

9.       Resources are not stretched out too thin: Resources are not stretched out too thin. This is absolutely important because we have a complete and a logical fallacy of perfectly sustainable development. For example, metals are not renewable, and even electric and hydrogen cars have an environmental foot print. The consumption of plastic, wood and paper is also extremely dangerous and harmful to the environment, and even bioplastic has a large environmental footprint.  

10.   Educated people contribute more to the economy: Educated people contribute more to the economy; this is a very obvious fact and a no brainer

11.   Educated people pay more taxes: Educated people also pay more taxes and fill up the government coffers and treasuries much, must faster; this would be a very obvious fact and a no brainer to most ordinary people.

12.   Wages will rise, and poverty rates will naturally reduce.  

13.   This will help a country transition from a low-skilled economy to a semi-skilled economy, and then to a high-skilled economy. It will also help countries to mature and evolve to a skill arbitrage model from a cost arbitrage model.

14.   The only issue here to deal with is the availability of low end labour; there are many approaches to address this, as has been discussed in this paper.

15.   Even economies with low fertility rates continue to grow – there is plenty of evidence for this; refer another section of this paper for more information.  

16.   No obsession with growth rates and economy sizes alone: This has become a preoccupation with many if not most planners especially since the 1990’s. While all this may be necessary, this must be counterbalanced with other aspects such as human welfare, human happiness, and environmental sustainability. We need to have epistemic coherentism and this will include merging local with global considerations, merging short term with long-term considerations, tradeoffs, prioritization, etc. Refer our paper on epistemic coherentism for this purpose.

17.   We need a holistic approach: This approach and technique must be counterweighed against a large number of other aspects and considerations. For example, research on sustainable development, sustainable development models, and renewable energies must continue unabated, and in full steam.  This will also give humans more time to chart out their destiny and their future, particularly in relation to other ecosystems, and other flora and fauna. There are many unresolved issues at this point in time; for example, debate is still raging about the future of plastic in world economies.

18.   From a purely environmental and ecological perspective, and even from an economic perspective, we had proposed a total fertility rate of 1.3 to 1.8 children per woman. This would help economies adjust naturally without severely impacting or destroying the environment and the habitat.

19.   We can make another interesting observation in this context, and in this background; richer and wealthier parents (as and when they become richer and wealthier, that is) may actually be able to raise more kids with more money. This must be proven with more evidence and data, of course. Therefore, improving education systems may also increase the flow of quality human resources in more ways than one.

20.   Dangers of copy paste scholarship or isolationist thinking: JD Vance’s views about “childless cat ladies” and Elon Musk’s warnings about low birth rates have kindled interest, but every statement must be viewed not in isolation, but in complete harmony with other statements. Kautilya, an Indian economist, in his treatise Arthasastra, viewed demographic management  as being essential for survival. Medieval Islamic and Confucian scholars also heavily focused on balancing population with social cohesion and communal harmony. Likewise, Thomas Aquinas found the pursuit of social justice to be integrated with population dynamics. Early demographers such as John Graunt, Sir William Petty, and Edmond Halley effectively laid the foundations for the science of demography. They developed early statistical and census methods that laid the foundation for modern demography. We must extend these foundations to modern conditions, and contextualize them in the realities of the twenty-first century. Western societies, rather unfortunately do not look at issues from the point of view of other countries. For example, the situation in countries such as Nigeria is rather grave and alarming.

21.   There are therefore several foundational and fundamental differences between western nations where most intellectuals reside, and some other parts of the world; these include (a) Western nations already have low birth rates, many of them at least (b) Many western nations have lower population densities and less strain on natural resources (c) Developed nations have more realized human potential than developing countries do; therefore, developing countries can grow for much longer as human potential is gradually fulfilled or realized to a higher degree. Developing countries also have more partial, disguised and seasonal employment that can be put to good use.

What is education?

Education refers to the structured and formal transmission of knowledge, skills, character, personality and behavioural traits to subsequent and future generations of individuals in a given society. Formal education takes place solely within the context of a structured institutional framework, such as public schools, following a curriculum. Other less formal education systems also operate in parallel, including adult education programs for example. Formal education systems are categorized and classified into various levels, that include early childhood education, primary education, secondary education, and tertiary education. Many sociological and anthropological factors may influence the success and efficacy of education to a great degree . Psychological factors may include motivation, orientation, aptitude, attitude, intelligence, and personality. Social and cultural factors, such as socioeconomic and sociocultrual identity, ethnicity, and gender, also play a vital part. Other factors encompass access to educational technology, teacher quality, and parental involvement.The primary academic field examining education holistically and formally is known as education studies. This is also referred to as pedagogy. Pedagogy probes into the nature of education, its objectives, and methods for instriction. Education studies encompasses various subfields of education, including the philosophy, psychology, sociology, morals, ethics, and economics of education. Additionally, it may also explore other variables such as comparative education, pedagogy, and the history of education, albeit to a much lesser extent and degree.

What is pedagogy?

Indeed the term pedagogy is now an all-encompassing term covering a breadth of topics such as content, teacher training and motivation, learning psychology and student motivation. It is both a theoretical and an applied science. According to Giovanni Genovesi: “Pedagogy is an autonomous science because it has its own language and is aware of how to use it according to its own method and its own ends and, by this language, pedagogy generates a body of knowledge, a series of experiments and techniques without which any construction of education models would be impossible.”  1999, p. 79-80.

Different learning theories and models have been applied during various periods in the history of pedagogy, according varying importance to theory and practice, often subordinating one of the two to the other. Learning theories may be defined as conceptual frameworks that seek to understand how students absorb, retain and process knowledge during learning. Classical theorists have included Plato of Ancient Greece and John Locke –the later proposed the idea of tabula rasa or blank slate. The theory of Behaviorism was developed by John Watson, B F Skinner (Skinner’s theory was known as Operant Conditioning), Clark L. Hull (Systematic Behaviour Theory or Drive Theory), Edward C. Tolman (Purposive Behaviourism and Sign Learning)and others. According to the Social Learning theory, new behaviour can be acquired by observing and imitating others. This was based on work by Albert Bandura and Vygotsky. Constructivists believe that learners interpret new knowledge on the basis of what they already know or understand, and that new knowledge was built over existing knowledge. The Transfer of Learning Approach and Connectionism (Connection between sense impulses and impulses to action) were likewise proposed by Edward Lee Thorndike and others.The Theory of Psychodynamics was proposed by Sigmund Freud who also touched on topics such as psychoanalysis and hedonism.

Other leading figures in the history of education have included Thomas Jefferson, who, in 1781 published his views on education in ‘Notes on the state of Virginia’. His views included a local flavour to education, mandatory public funded education for three years and state support for deserving students from lower socio-economic backgrounds. John Dewey was another influential educationalist who also proposed the idea of functionalism. He was also associated with the philosophy of pragmatism. Dewey's ideas were presented in My Pedagogic Creed (1897), The School and Society (1900), The Child and the Curriculum (1902), Democracy and Education (1916), Schools of To-morrow (1915) and Experience and Education (1938). Dewey believed that education and learning were social and interactive processes, and students needed to interact with the curriculum, and participate in their own learning.Margaret Haley was another famous educator who focussed on a child-centred pedagogical approach and teacher training and development in the early Twentieth century. Other influential figures in education were Alexander Crummell, Mary McLeod Bethune, WEB DuBois, Daniel Payne, Inez Beverley Prosser and Booker T Washington. Oppressed themselves, they played a major role in promoting education among Blacks.  Other interesting figures were Benjamin W. Arnett, legislator who fought or Black education, Jean Wesley Gilbert, the first Black Archaeologist and Daniel Hale Williams founder of the first school for Black nurses. [22]

Various learning theories have also been developed, since their early theorists such as Jean Jacques Rousseau (He proposed that humans went through different stages, and different types of learning were appropriate for each stage),John Amos Comenius (often considered to be the father of modern education- he supported equal education and learning in the local language),Johann Heinrich Pestalozzi (formulated several modern principles in education),Otto Friedrich Theodor Heinsius , Friedrich Froebel (who proposed the idea of Kindergartens), to Soren Kierkegaard, Max Stirner, Friedrich Nietzsche, Johann Friedrich Herbart (played a major role in constituting Pedagogy as a separate discipline), Immanuel Kant (who emphasized value, knowledge, human nature, learning, transmission, society and opportunity), Henri Bergson (perception and memory), Edwin R. Guthrie (Contiguous conditioning), and Stanko Gogala (Cultural Pedagogy)(Suchodolski, 1978). These were followed by theNew School or the Alternative schools movement (which included Paul Goodman, Edgar Z. Friedenberg, Herb Kohl, Jonathan Kozol, and James Herndon), George Snyder’s non-directive pedagogies (Snyders, 1974), Fernand Oury and Institutional pedagogy which focuses on the complexity of the learner and the unconscious factors which the learner brings to the classroom (Lobrot, 1967; Oury, Vasquez, 1967) and constructivismand contextual learning (This philosophy proposed by Jean Piaget, Lev Vygotsky and others proposes an ontological perspective of how humans make an interaction in relation between their experiences and their ideas). Contextual learning also places importance of cognition and problem solving. [23]

There also have been calls for a shift from a teacher-centric approach (with an emphasis on content and perceptions of teacher superiority) to a learner-centric approach (These include experiential learningor learning through experience (Proposed by David A. Kolb in the 1970’s), hands on leaning and applied learning) (Brown, 2003; Crick & McCombs, 2006; Harris & Cullen, 2008) but progress and implementation have been somewhat tardy. Other more controversial approaches to pedagogy have included Critical Pedagogy which is based on works by Paulo Freire. This links learning with oppression and social justice and does not distance learning from political realities and contexts. [24] Another emerging area is Dialogic learning which draws its power fromegalitarian dialogue where validity of arguments and not association with power play a critical role. Educational Psychology is an interface between education and psychology, and this is a branch of applied psychology dealing with the problems, processes and products of education.It also tries to apply the psychological principles, theories and techniques of human behaviour in educational situations. [25][26]

The first chair of pedagogy was established at the University of Halle in Germany in the 1770’s. Johann Heinrich Pestalozzi of Switzerland and Joseph Lancaster of Britain also contributed to the study of pedagogical techniques. Under the guidance of Wilhelm von Humboldt a new university was founded in Berlin (University of Berlin) in 1809and this university, which was later named Humboldt University,became the model for many other research universities in Europe. In the 20th century, new trends in education have included Montessori schools developed by Maria Montessori based on a child-centric approachand development of Waldorf education first proposed by Rudolf Steiner. This approach seeks to stimulate intellectual and artistic creativity. Pedagogy must provide a consistent and a seamless framework across sub-disciplines providing a cogent experience to the learner, but alas, well into the Twenty-first century, this appears to be nowhere close to fruition: the blame for this must probably be laid squarely on both inadequacies in theory and frameworks and gaps in implementation. According to work by  Hofstetter and Schneuwly, pulls and pressures of, and the non-convergence of ideas and attitudes of theorists, professionals and policy makers may be responsible for some of the mess. [27]Hans-Georg Gadamer also lacks the fact that sound theorization and the development of new and relevant frameworks have lagged behind praxis in recent times. (Gadamer, 2000). More culture specific research is required, and more culture-specific outcomes also identified.

Studying the impact of education on the economy

We have also written extensively about the need to update pedagogy and education systems for the twenty and beyond. Kindly refer our various assorted publications in pedagogy for this purpose. However, the impact of different forms, modes and types of education on the economy including automation of education, may be assessed. This may be one form of analysis future scholars, researchers and anthropologists may want to make. However, this is by no means easy. We need to identify and isolate imponderable and factors through the use of intervening variables.The concepts mooted in our paper, “Abstraction, conceptualization, disambiguation, ideation, innovation, objectivization, quantification, and theorization in the social sciences: New pillars for contemporary social sciences research” can also help to a very great extent and degree.” However, it is quite obvious that education is a positive force. Maybe its effects on the economy should be quantified, not just education per se, but various forms of it. Of course, an improvement of school infrastructure should also be attempted in a big way, as India scores very poorly in this regard. School infrastructure in India mostly lacks the physical structure, classrooms, libraries, laboratories, and other facilities. The quality of school infrastructure can impact the learning environment and student development. Most schools lack sanitation, lighting and ventilation, proper and reliable electricity, etc. internet access is virtually lacking in most schools.  Teacher motivation is poor, and teacher absenteeism is high. A vital and a crucial debate is required on the direction pedagogy needs to take, and many issues need to be resolved. We will make a crucial reference to the theory of constraints here. Eliyahu M. Goldratt developed the Theory of Constraints in his 1984 book, The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) is a management philosophy that helps identify and improve the root causes of bottlenecks in a system with a goal and objective to make a system more efficient by identifying and the constraints that limit its performance. Therefore, improving the education system can remove several constraints, and leapfrog the economy. Quality of education remains the single biggest bottleneck in countries such as India. Boosting the education system can yield rich dividends in the short-term, medium-term, and the long-term. Therefore, to reiterate,

1.       India has huge untapped potential arising from a poor education system

2.       Developing countries are different from developed countries as so are variations in education system

3.       Developing countries have a large unrealized potential

4.       Huge difference in quality of education between developed and developing countries

5.       Huge difference in quality of education between developed and developing countries is a huge opportunity waiting to be tapped

6.       Huge difference in quality of education between elites and non-elites in developing countries

7.       Huge difference in quality of education between elites and non-elites in developing countries is a huge opportunity waiting to be tapped

8.       Skilling must be given a lot of importance, and so must be vocational training

 

We have had several missions in India such as the skill India mission, but people must have basic skills such as basic computer skills, financial skills,  English-speaking skills, and digital skills to take advantage of the large number of job opportunities available.

Must fight aspiration deficit

Aspiration Cherishment and Aspiration Deficit also vary widely from context to context. These refer to the value and importance attached to aspiration and success among a socio-cultural group, a socio-economic group, or an individual, and the tolerance or non-tolerance for failure (often associated with social stigma) as well. These attributes could again form the basis for motivation. For example, very few people may aspire to success, wealth or riches in a society, and the intellectual classes may be non-existent or nascent. Motivational economics like every facet of Anthropological Economics, therefore, stresses the role of invisibles and cultural power in economic development.  Along with this, individual mind-orientation and cultural orientation must be changed as far as possible; please refer our old papers for greater and further clarity. These can give economies a legup.

Must fight the culture of poverty

This idea of ‘Culture of poverty’, was proposed by Oscar Lewis based on the results of a study carried out in Mexico. According to Oscar Lewis, poverty has the tendency to mould the lives and attitudes of the poor, in such a way that they can no longer escape them; thus, they become victims of the culture of poverty. Another related concept is the dependency theory with states that mainstream economic models are designed to make poor countries subservient to rich ones, and wealth always flows from poor countries to rich ones. This theory developed with inputs by Francois Perroux, Kurt Rothschild, Keith Griffin, Walden Bello, Kunibert Raffer, and others, though some contributors were left-leaning in their orientation. This is indeed a widespread problem even in pure, theoretical and applied science because developed countries are loathe to let go of their stranglehold.

Conclusion

This paper must be counted as being one of the most important and one of the most intrinsic component of our series of papers on population management. We had naturally begun this paper by reviewing and carefully dissecting fertility trends from all across the world to show that we are still living in a demographically divided world. We also then reviewed the concepts of pronatalism and antinatalism in brief, and logically went on to show that unbridled pronatalism is very much a right wing ideology, and is fraught with a series of dangerous, and highly unintended consequences. Pronatalist policies are unlikely to work either, for the most part, and shown and demonstrated by data and evidence culled and collected form many different regions of the world where birth rates have already fallen very low, and have shown no propensity or likelihood to increase in the short on in the long-term. Therefore, moderation is always required in all facet of human endeavour, and this must form the basis of cogitation and thought. We also then went on to explain what was meant by the population composition fallacy, any proclaimed the myth of homogeneity of populations both within and across regions. We then also reviewed the theory of demographic dividend, and reviewed its limitations as well. We also went on to state that there is a myth of perfectly sustainable development, and that the human environmental footprint is likely to expand continuously as standards of living naturally rise continuously all across the world. Therefore, we do not need copy and paste scholarship, and one that is born out of deep-rooted cogitation, and based on foundationalism and epistemic coherentism.  This will help us find the right, middle path as we still remain torn by our loyalty or commitment to various ideologies. Man is free to pursue his passions, and pursue his goals and ambitions, but he must do so responsibly, and always keeping environmental considerations in mind. This sets him apart from other species as well.

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[19] Building upon “Foundationalism” to achieve the objectives of contemporary science: How this can lead to faster scientific progress and inclusive science, Sujay Rao Mandavilli, IJISRT, October 2024

[20] Implementing “Epistemic coherentism” in twentyfirst century science: “Epistemic coherentism” as an essential pre-requisite of interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research Sujay Rao Mandavilli IJISRT, November 2024

[21] Emphasizing “integrationism” in twenty-first century science: Another useful tool to generate better scientific paradigms better quality science Sujay Rao Mandavilli IJISRT October 2024

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